Trump is benefiting from not being in the news cycle and basically shutting the fuck up by virtue of the fact that he was totally deplatformed and nobody cares what he posts on Truth Social or his NFT sale. As soon as Trump starts talking again, everyone who voted against him in 2024 will remember why, and they'll vote against him again.
People didn't vote for Biden in 2020 because they thought he was good. He was senile back then, too. They voted for him because they hated Trump and thought Trump was "unpresidential" and boorish and crude and vulgar. Women voted against Trump by wide margins. Maybe they have temporarily forgotten, but they'll remember quick enough once the primaries heat up. Trump has done nothing to rehabilitate himself either. He's still saying dumb shit, he knifed multiple good republicans in the back after he tanked the Right in numerous key elections a few months ago, and his big move since he announced was to slang NFTs.
dekachins didn't analyze the betting market chart very closely. Trump went from 10% to 30% and 2x Biden after announcing his intention to run and nobody was close until the Mar-a-Lago raid.
This is temporary because people are only hearing the anti-Trump news, nobody is hearing him say the FBI took Melania's underwear, or whatever, and it'll recover as nothing happens (as usual with Trump 'scandals').
DeSantis didn't even break Harris' high and basically replaced her as the 'credible other' choice until the classified docs and the news constantly chanting that Trump is finished this time for sure. His high chance now is due to people believing it'll be illegal for Trump to be elected again, which is unlikely since he meets all the Constitution requirements.
The event that crashed Trump's numbers and skyrocketed DeSantis was the November election, not the maralago raid. You can see very clearly the event was November, not the August 8 raid. Trump's numbers dumped after November 8.
Trump's candidates lost. Trump went online after and leveled nasty criticism at I believe 2 popular republicans who he for whatever reason saw as disloyal. The losses + how he reacted to it is why Trump's numbers did so badly.
You see that big ~15% mountain eroding from July? That corresponds to Mar-A-Lago and slightly before that the news cycle saying Trump would be charged in Jan 6 and not be able to run again.
This is a bigger change than the election, which is quickening the trend and which you're also misinterpreting; it wasn't the loss of his candidates or his demeanor it was the clearly ongoing cheating by Democrats. This is the other big factor where if Democrats can continue cheating at 2020 levels Trump will lose and in a fair election he'll win.
Desantis has much better odds: https://electionbettingodds.com/President2024.html#chart
Trump is benefiting from not being in the news cycle and basically shutting the fuck up by virtue of the fact that he was totally deplatformed and nobody cares what he posts on Truth Social or his NFT sale. As soon as Trump starts talking again, everyone who voted against him in 2024 will remember why, and they'll vote against him again.
You know that shithead wine mom governor of California Gavin Newsom? We tried a recall election against him. At one point it was neck-and-neck when people were mad at Newsom, but then all the Democrats re-asserted their partisanship and came home to vote for the effete wine merchant. The same thing would happen with Biden, here.
People didn't vote for Biden in 2020 because they thought he was good. He was senile back then, too. They voted for him because they hated Trump and thought Trump was "unpresidential" and boorish and crude and vulgar. Women voted against Trump by wide margins. Maybe they have temporarily forgotten, but they'll remember quick enough once the primaries heat up. Trump has done nothing to rehabilitate himself either. He's still saying dumb shit, he knifed multiple good republicans in the back after he tanked the Right in numerous key elections a few months ago, and his big move since he announced was to slang NFTs.
dekachins didn't analyze the betting market chart very closely. Trump went from 10% to 30% and 2x Biden after announcing his intention to run and nobody was close until the Mar-a-Lago raid.
This is temporary because people are only hearing the anti-Trump news, nobody is hearing him say the FBI took Melania's underwear, or whatever, and it'll recover as nothing happens (as usual with Trump 'scandals').
DeSantis didn't even break Harris' high and basically replaced her as the 'credible other' choice until the classified docs and the news constantly chanting that Trump is finished this time for sure. His high chance now is due to people believing it'll be illegal for Trump to be elected again, which is unlikely since he meets all the Constitution requirements.
The event that crashed Trump's numbers and skyrocketed DeSantis was the November election, not the maralago raid. You can see very clearly the event was November, not the August 8 raid. Trump's numbers dumped after November 8.
Trump's candidates lost. Trump went online after and leveled nasty criticism at I believe 2 popular republicans who he for whatever reason saw as disloyal. The losses + how he reacted to it is why Trump's numbers did so badly.
You see that big ~15% mountain eroding from July? That corresponds to Mar-A-Lago and slightly before that the news cycle saying Trump would be charged in Jan 6 and not be able to run again.
This is a bigger change than the election, which is quickening the trend and which you're also misinterpreting; it wasn't the loss of his candidates or his demeanor it was the clearly ongoing cheating by Democrats. This is the other big factor where if Democrats can continue cheating at 2020 levels Trump will lose and in a fair election he'll win.