The Kari Lake Trial is Wild
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This shit is fucking crazy.
On Day 1 the state argued that for some unknowable reason, the "ballot" (all the questions and security features) was shrunk, like a picture, on the paper itself to 19" instead of 20"... by someone clicking a "Fit to Print" button accidentally. Of course, anyone who interacts with a printer, knows that your "Fit to Print" option prints to the max size of the paper, not the max size minus 1". That doesn't make any fucking sense.
Now today, the state are saying that they believe someone at several balloting stations specifically tried troubleshooting this very printer problem, and instead clicked a "Shrink to Fit" button (which I've never heard of), in order to try and resolve the very ballot problem that they caused by the troubleshooting!
Fucking WAT???
TEMPORAL ANOMALY DETECTED
What they were trying to do yesterday was also claim that it didn't matter that all these ballots were spoiled, because they all would have been manually duplicated, and the duplicates were counted, and therefore everything is hunky-dory. EXCEPT, unfortunately 300,000 of the original ballots have been destroyed so we can't actually compare the duplicates to the originals.
And that is why Maricopa County has no Chain of Custody issues, and actually, all those delays don't even exist and didn't happen.
On top of all of that: the state also admitted that this error happened in the 2020 primaries, the 2020 general election, and the 2022 primaries before. But magically it never happened in their testing for the 2022 general. And apparently since all of these fucking poll workers simultaneously dun goofed at the same time in dozens of different locations, you would have thought that ANYONE would have said "hey don't touch the button that makes the ballot unreadable".
Again: the state's argument is literally:
I'm still pessimistic that Kari will win, because the level of corruption in the judicial system is horrific. But holy shit are they doing fucking real damage to Maricopa County's legitimacy.
That it has gotten this far at least puts it into the "It could happen" slot for me. Its true that the judicial system has extreme amounts of corruption, but at least from many of the last few high profile cases, if you didnt get it in front of a judge that was blatantly partisan (see: Alex Jones), they were a lot more hesitant to just ignore things and make biased rulings. Because if they do that, it will be bad for their career, and its harder to bullshit your way through and do it.
It would take a level of corruption on par with some of the old strongholds like San Fran, Chicago, Baltimore, or DC. And as bad as Arizona is, I dont think they are that far gone.
It may still end up in a lose for Lake. But at least it will make it that much harder to pull bullshit in the future, and may help other jurisdictions be ready for the shenanigans in the future (see also: the 2021 Virginia elections learning from 2020 Fortifications).
I'm not seeing "legal kill shots" like we saw with Rittenhouse or the Johnny Depp trial. I'm not seeing the kind of "Jesus fucking Christ, this shit is over, and the state should be criminally charged" kind of response from the public that you'd need to see to force a judge's hand not to be corrupt, so I think it's well within the possibility for the judge to say, "Fuck you kill yourself" as a judgement, which is what many judges have done regarding the elections. And, as we've already seen, this same judge dismissed some of Lake's claims on "standing" because she'd filed after the election, despite also filing before the election and told that she didn't have grounds for the suit until the election. I assume that the judiciary believes that these lawsuits can only be filed and heard within the 5 hour period between voting opens and the court house closes. So again, I'm not putting my hopes up.
All that being said, the argumentation from the state is so bad the legal interpretive dance needed to rationalize tier position as correct is only going to bring more discredit on the state and judiciary if they rule against them, kind of like the Sussman verdict. Anyone who knows anything, knows that the DC circuit is more partisan than the juries in the Scottsboro Boys trail. It's literally not even worth using them, and the whole circuit should simply be eliminated.
So, I see three small wins here:
We've uncovered the mechanisms of which Maricopa comits criminal voter fraud: forcing ballots to be manually reviewed and duplicated, changing the votes (or removing the votes) in the offsite tabulation centers while having no chain of custody. Strategies can now be developed to counter-act that.
Maricopa County has been, once again, publicly humiliated. This will get to be fodder for actions within AZ politics to either pressure changes to take place, or infiltrate Maricopa to clear it out like DeSantis did with Boward County. If we want to play real smash-mouth, you start pushing for people and companies to move out of Maricopa County, so you can use it's depopulation as a weapon to destroy their economic and political power.
The public broadcasting of this trail can be used as a political weapon in the future to badger the establishment, and make the normies taste the shit they are being spoonfed, allowing for more populist blowback. This will make them more receptive to populist causes and activations.
To be fair, I didnt say it was a high chance. Just that the chance has gone beyond 0%. I will continue to think the immediate situation is fucked until I see evidence of the contrary. But like you pointed out, it at least gives some paths forward that can be utilized by the Dissident Right.
Yeah, I'd give it a 10%-20% chance, which unfortunately, is pretty good.
"WE NEED TO PASS THE BILL TO KNOW WHAT'S IN IT!"
Hopefully the judge is one of the few remaining with courage. The easiest thing to do would be to punt it, perhaps throw a bone to Lake's side about acknowledging irregularities, but stopping short of actually fixing anything, telling the SoS/Governor Elect to fix their "mistakes" for the next cycle. Most people do the easy thing. On top of that you might have behind-the-scenes threats coming from the uniparty side. If they are smart they will do whatever they can to seal and fortify their steal, and remove anyone who challenged them.
I seriously doubt "courage" is within the lexicon of the judiciary or establishment. Punting it and throwing a bone would actually be a great victory because it can still be weaponized, and keeps the right from fucking black-pilling itself.
If our enemies were capable of even rudimentary intelligence, we'd already be dead.
I'm sure they'll do something far too aggressive and unwarranted, which will cause useful blowback. Like: calling for Kari Lake's arrest, or having her attorneys disbarred and criminally charged.
Remember when several progressive Democrats accused Ted Cruz of treason after January 6th and demanded his immediate arrest? Not impeachment, arrest. Yeah, that kind of thing.