The Kari Lake Trial is Wild
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That it has gotten this far at least puts it into the "It could happen" slot for me. Its true that the judicial system has extreme amounts of corruption, but at least from many of the last few high profile cases, if you didnt get it in front of a judge that was blatantly partisan (see: Alex Jones), they were a lot more hesitant to just ignore things and make biased rulings. Because if they do that, it will be bad for their career, and its harder to bullshit your way through and do it.
It would take a level of corruption on par with some of the old strongholds like San Fran, Chicago, Baltimore, or DC. And as bad as Arizona is, I dont think they are that far gone.
It may still end up in a lose for Lake. But at least it will make it that much harder to pull bullshit in the future, and may help other jurisdictions be ready for the shenanigans in the future (see also: the 2021 Virginia elections learning from 2020 Fortifications).
I'm not seeing "legal kill shots" like we saw with Rittenhouse or the Johnny Depp trial. I'm not seeing the kind of "Jesus fucking Christ, this shit is over, and the state should be criminally charged" kind of response from the public that you'd need to see to force a judge's hand not to be corrupt, so I think it's well within the possibility for the judge to say, "Fuck you kill yourself" as a judgement, which is what many judges have done regarding the elections. And, as we've already seen, this same judge dismissed some of Lake's claims on "standing" because she'd filed after the election, despite also filing before the election and told that she didn't have grounds for the suit until the election. I assume that the judiciary believes that these lawsuits can only be filed and heard within the 5 hour period between voting opens and the court house closes. So again, I'm not putting my hopes up.
All that being said, the argumentation from the state is so bad the legal interpretive dance needed to rationalize tier position as correct is only going to bring more discredit on the state and judiciary if they rule against them, kind of like the Sussman verdict. Anyone who knows anything, knows that the DC circuit is more partisan than the juries in the Scottsboro Boys trail. It's literally not even worth using them, and the whole circuit should simply be eliminated.
So, I see three small wins here:
We've uncovered the mechanisms of which Maricopa comits criminal voter fraud: forcing ballots to be manually reviewed and duplicated, changing the votes (or removing the votes) in the offsite tabulation centers while having no chain of custody. Strategies can now be developed to counter-act that.
Maricopa County has been, once again, publicly humiliated. This will get to be fodder for actions within AZ politics to either pressure changes to take place, or infiltrate Maricopa to clear it out like DeSantis did with Boward County. If we want to play real smash-mouth, you start pushing for people and companies to move out of Maricopa County, so you can use it's depopulation as a weapon to destroy their economic and political power.
The public broadcasting of this trail can be used as a political weapon in the future to badger the establishment, and make the normies taste the shit they are being spoonfed, allowing for more populist blowback. This will make them more receptive to populist causes and activations.
To be fair, I didnt say it was a high chance. Just that the chance has gone beyond 0%. I will continue to think the immediate situation is fucked until I see evidence of the contrary. But like you pointed out, it at least gives some paths forward that can be utilized by the Dissident Right.
Yeah, I'd give it a 10%-20% chance, which unfortunately, is pretty good.