Only thing that would have me slightly bothered is that way back when the early predictions (we're talking Jan/Feb) were the only way Trump losses was record turnout. They are predicting 75% turnout here in Missouri and I went to two polling places (we can go to any polling location in the County this time due to COVID) and both had lines out the door and around the building at 7AM. And what I heard in line was not encouraging. Easily anti-trump 3 to 1 in MO-2.
I got a bit of a wake up call on Halloween. Neighbors that have complained about taxes and liberals before, but they also HATE Trump with a passion. We're talking white educated upper middle-class/rich. And they are all voting Biden Today. The entire street. Us and one other neighbor are Trump. And I doubt his wife and eldest daughter are voting Trump. Back in 2016 there were 4 Hillary signs and 2 or 3 Trump signs if I remember. This time there were over 25 Biden signs in the neighborhood and 6 Trump signs.
Not saying that your points are not valid, but white (mis)educated middle-class/rich is basically the anti-Trump redoubt. And 'yard signs' are used as an argument by people who wanted to persuade me that Trump is going to win, since apparently Trump is beating Biden almost everywhere on that score.
Nate Cohn and Nate Silver are especially in Democrat dreamland this election cycle.
Their electoral map predictions in favor of a complete and utter landslide for Old Joe won't age well today.
Nate Pewter?
He's been hard at work walking it back over the past week. I think his most recent release last night was saying Trump has a 50/50 shot.
They know they're fucked they just can't admit it.
538 loses millions every year. It is pure propaganda.
I'm not talking about Cohn's projections based on the polls, but those based on the real results.
Only thing that would have me slightly bothered is that way back when the early predictions (we're talking Jan/Feb) were the only way Trump losses was record turnout. They are predicting 75% turnout here in Missouri and I went to two polling places (we can go to any polling location in the County this time due to COVID) and both had lines out the door and around the building at 7AM. And what I heard in line was not encouraging. Easily anti-trump 3 to 1 in MO-2.
I got a bit of a wake up call on Halloween. Neighbors that have complained about taxes and liberals before, but they also HATE Trump with a passion. We're talking white educated upper middle-class/rich. And they are all voting Biden Today. The entire street. Us and one other neighbor are Trump. And I doubt his wife and eldest daughter are voting Trump. Back in 2016 there were 4 Hillary signs and 2 or 3 Trump signs if I remember. This time there were over 25 Biden signs in the neighborhood and 6 Trump signs.
Not saying that your points are not valid, but white (mis)educated middle-class/rich is basically the anti-Trump redoubt. And 'yard signs' are used as an argument by people who wanted to persuade me that Trump is going to win, since apparently Trump is beating Biden almost everywhere on that score.