NYC had 20% with antibodes early may, which obviously wasn't counting people who had it but didn't have antibodies, which apparently last 6 ish weeks.
So yeah, I can easily see it, in places that got it and didn't over react. In the south and midwest, we'll get there quick if we don't act retarded and lock down over people being irrational.
At the time, NYC had 13k dead, and another estimated 4-5k uncounted COVID deaths. Population is 8.4 million. Estimation of antibodies is 2.1 million + 200k or so confirmed. .56 IFR on the low end, .78 on the high end. And we're being pretty conservative on the numbers here.
It ain't the flu.
The lockdowns were an overreaction. Recommendations for masks aren't.
e: based this on 25% antibodies accidentally. Should be 1.88 million infected, with .69 IFR on low, and .95 on the high end.
Even if you believe every single last person in NYC has been infected, the IFR is still twice as high as the flu with the number of deaths that have already occurred in the 5 boroughs. It's worse than the flu. Twice as bad is the bare minimum maths allow, even if no one else dies.
NYC had 20% with antibodes early may, which obviously wasn't counting people who had it but didn't have antibodies, which apparently last 6 ish weeks.
So yeah, I can easily see it, in places that got it and didn't over react. In the south and midwest, we'll get there quick if we don't act retarded and lock down over people being irrational.
At the time, NYC had 13k dead, and another estimated 4-5k uncounted COVID deaths. Population is 8.4 million. Estimation of antibodies is 2.1 million + 200k or so confirmed. .56 IFR on the low end, .78 on the high end. And we're being pretty conservative on the numbers here.
It ain't the flu.
The lockdowns were an overreaction. Recommendations for masks aren't.
e: based this on 25% antibodies accidentally. Should be 1.88 million infected, with .69 IFR on low, and .95 on the high end.
Except antibody tests don't pick up on people who don't have them anymore, but are still immune, so you're looking at some higher number still.
Also, nursing home deaths artificially inflated it because of Cuomo.
Even if you believe every single last person in NYC has been infected, the IFR is still twice as high as the flu with the number of deaths that have already occurred in the 5 boroughs. It's worse than the flu. Twice as bad is the bare minimum maths allow, even if no one else dies.
Except IFR isn't just new york. It's balanced by everywhere else not intentionally killing the elderly.