At the time, NYC had 13k dead, and another estimated 4-5k uncounted COVID deaths. Population is 8.4 million. Estimation of antibodies is 2.1 million + 200k or so confirmed. .56 IFR on the low end, .78 on the high end. And we're being pretty conservative on the numbers here.
It ain't the flu.
The lockdowns were an overreaction. Recommendations for masks aren't.
e: based this on 25% antibodies accidentally. Should be 1.88 million infected, with .69 IFR on low, and .95 on the high end.
Even if you believe every single last person in NYC has been infected, the IFR is still twice as high as the flu with the number of deaths that have already occurred in the 5 boroughs. It's worse than the flu. Twice as bad is the bare minimum maths allow, even if no one else dies.
I'm talking about specifically NYC. Those are the numbers I'm using. If everyone has it, there can be no intentional spread to vulnerable populations. There's spread to everyone. Best case scenario is .22 IFR, simply based on NYCs numbers.
You can say that NYC has an elderly population, and I'm not really sure. You can say the number of deaths are inflated, even though something is killing a fuck ton more people than what the official number suggests. I'm just saying, what you're presenting isn't reasonable with the facts you've provided. I'm interested in a valid argument for why it's just the flu, but I haven't seen one yet that's supported by a little common sense and 5th grade math.
Personally, I don't think it's that bad. Yes, 1:150 to 1:100 will die, and they're mostly old. Sucks, but not worth wrecking the economy over. I just see a lot of unsubstantiated bullshit saying it's nothing, or is the fucking plague. The truth lies in the middle. Understand what we're dealing with, and act accordingly. Don't downplay or exaggerate it. Wear a mask if it saves some old people, or don't and help Social Security.
At the time, NYC had 13k dead, and another estimated 4-5k uncounted COVID deaths. Population is 8.4 million. Estimation of antibodies is 2.1 million + 200k or so confirmed. .56 IFR on the low end, .78 on the high end. And we're being pretty conservative on the numbers here.
It ain't the flu.
The lockdowns were an overreaction. Recommendations for masks aren't.
e: based this on 25% antibodies accidentally. Should be 1.88 million infected, with .69 IFR on low, and .95 on the high end.
Except antibody tests don't pick up on people who don't have them anymore, but are still immune, so you're looking at some higher number still.
Also, nursing home deaths artificially inflated it because of Cuomo.
Even if you believe every single last person in NYC has been infected, the IFR is still twice as high as the flu with the number of deaths that have already occurred in the 5 boroughs. It's worse than the flu. Twice as bad is the bare minimum maths allow, even if no one else dies.
Except IFR isn't just new york. It's balanced by everywhere else not intentionally killing the elderly.
I'm talking about specifically NYC. Those are the numbers I'm using. If everyone has it, there can be no intentional spread to vulnerable populations. There's spread to everyone. Best case scenario is .22 IFR, simply based on NYCs numbers.
You can say that NYC has an elderly population, and I'm not really sure. You can say the number of deaths are inflated, even though something is killing a fuck ton more people than what the official number suggests. I'm just saying, what you're presenting isn't reasonable with the facts you've provided. I'm interested in a valid argument for why it's just the flu, but I haven't seen one yet that's supported by a little common sense and 5th grade math.
Personally, I don't think it's that bad. Yes, 1:150 to 1:100 will die, and they're mostly old. Sucks, but not worth wrecking the economy over. I just see a lot of unsubstantiated bullshit saying it's nothing, or is the fucking plague. The truth lies in the middle. Understand what we're dealing with, and act accordingly. Don't downplay or exaggerate it. Wear a mask if it saves some old people, or don't and help Social Security.