Yea, AFAIK the problem is that manufacturers don't want to increase production. It's expensive, takes years to build new factories and last time they did it prices crashed and they got stuck holding the bag. So they'd rather ride the current high.
Our only "hope" is that the AI bubble pops. The fact that this is a real possibility is another reason why manufacturers don't want to invest in more factories.
Once it stops being subsidized, and prices go up 30-50%, there will definitely be a correction. It's also a race to the bottom - frontier models will continue to improve but "good enough" has already been hit, and at that point companies will need to compete on price, and they can't go too much lower in pricing without losing money.
That said they ARE building new fabs, that shit just takes years.
It’s also largely good enough now that you can do coding (which is a big driver of usage) on a local model. It’s slower, but so what. Give it a prompt and go make a cup of coffee, vs give it a prompt and instantly get your code. Still faster than doing it yourself.
Yea, AFAIK the problem is that manufacturers don't want to increase production. It's expensive, takes years to build new factories and last time they did it prices crashed and they got stuck holding the bag. So they'd rather ride the current high.
Our only "hope" is that the AI bubble pops. The fact that this is a real possibility is another reason why manufacturers don't want to invest in more factories.
Once it stops being subsidized, and prices go up 30-50%, there will definitely be a correction. It's also a race to the bottom - frontier models will continue to improve but "good enough" has already been hit, and at that point companies will need to compete on price, and they can't go too much lower in pricing without losing money.
That said they ARE building new fabs, that shit just takes years.
It’s also largely good enough now that you can do coding (which is a big driver of usage) on a local model. It’s slower, but so what. Give it a prompt and go make a cup of coffee, vs give it a prompt and instantly get your code. Still faster than doing it yourself.
ive not checked in in a while, what are the best local models right now?