My guess IF true, China has been saying to knock it off attacking the energy infrastructure THEY also rely on. Hearing word China is withholding exporting oil already.
The thing is, I haven't heard the US or Israel (like they'd be ALLOWED) launching any of the attacks from Gulf state bases.
Plus at the end of this, I'm betting the Gilf states try to order MORE patriot air defence systems, laser and microwave drone defense as they'll NEVER trust Iran again after this.
From where do you think they used the Himars launchers against Iran? Arizona? And whose airspace is the US/Israel using for their bombing runs against Iran? They're not going around the Arabian peninsula that much I can promise you.
The Gulf states are 100% complicit in the war against Iran. All the radar installations were there for a reason and it wasn't to defend the Gulf states.
This is what a Telegram aggregator (Middle East Spectator) claims:
Iranian MPs and members of the Assembly of Experts are furious at Pezeshkian and urge him to 'shut up' until the war ends, because 'he doesn't think before he speaks'.
They're also urging the Assembly to choose and announce the new Supreme Leader as soon as possible and without any delay.
I take caution in accepting everything he says at face value - though the combat videos are straight-forward - so I'm not sure about the credibility of these statements, but it is kind of hilarious.
Edit: Leaning more and more towards my Azerbaijan hypothesis as they were furious. There was also the brief tension with Turkey preceding it, which got resolved extremely quickly with Turkey stating the intended target was Cyprus.
I've found Middle East Spectator to be quite reliable over the last couple of years. I've not seen a single instance of blatant propaganda and they don't just parrot Iranian propaganda. They usually call it out and tell their own guys to stop being retards. And when they've spread false information they actually own up to it and correct it. They're infinitely more reliable than any of the (mainstream) media outlets we have although to be fair that is not exactly difficult.
But yes, always remain skeptical. No matter how much you trust a news channel never trust them blindly.
The thing is, I haven't heard the US or Israel (like they'd be ALLOWED) launching any of the attacks from Gulf state bases.
You do realize the U.S. has had to bounce around all the way to Cyprus? Why do you think this is? Also, even ignoring the physical aspect of launch and re-fueling, you're also ignoring other logistics such as intelligence (radar, etc.). The Arab countries constantly say something while meaning another.
Plus at the end of this, I'm betting the Gilf states try to order MORE patriot air defence systems, laser and microwave drone defense [...]
Azerbaijan and other countries have been contemplating becoming more active in the conflict. Maybe that's the reason for this turn? I don't know, China and India aren't happy, and they are BRICS countries but they also realize the existential crisis.
Anyway, good luck to the Arab countries wanting more Patriot systems. They're useless without the missiles, which we don't make enough of within a given year, each intercept takes 2+ missiles (Israel sometimes launching 8 or 10), cost ~$4M per missile IIRC, and are useless against ballistics. They do well enough against super slow drones and cruise missiles though, and decoys.
BTW, I saw some footage of the "Iron Laser Beam" once. Not sure if that was real, but it seemed useless. All these anti-defense technologies are worthless until provably good. THAAD and the rest "mature" AD so far is pathetic; Israel knows first hand, and countries also have to re-think over-reliance with U.S. because they're not defended, Israel is, and stockpiles are re-distributed to Israel in times of crunch. South Korea also learning about this first-hand.
as they'll NEVER trust Iran again after this.
Saudi Arabia wanted Iran proverbially nuked off the face of the Earth but have been engaged in optics just like everyone else. Recently, Iran praised them for being so understanding and restrained despite Iran's attack on their U.S. assets, and it turned out within hours (4? 12? 24?) that an Israeli transponder hadn't been turned off, and landed in the kingdom... There has never been "trust" or whatever you think with Iran of all countries. They, the Houthis, and Hezbollah are utterly despised by Arabs.
I know the UK was working on using microwaves to defend against drones by using that to fry the electronics and since it's something like that, it's EXTREMELY cost effective.
That seems to be the pattern nowadays as why there is also an interest in lasers. States like Iran, China and to an extent Russia rely on overwhelming through sheer numbers. If you can take out drones with microwaves and lasers and I know Japan has a working railgun they want to use as missile defence, if blunts swarm tactics. For now US and Israel between bombing Iranian leadership seems to be focusing on launch and production facilities.
Every single country of relevance is working on this type of technology for decades. The question is, is any of this practical and combat proven? So far the answer is "no".
BTW, it's not just a numbers game. Israeli AD has had poor percentages even with some basic missiles (i.e. 1 or 2) last June as well. Iran was sending few missiles at the end of the prior war and having significant success...and back then, the 5 now-destroyed radars in the Arab countries feeding Israel advance intelligence still existed.
BTW, it's not just a numbers game. Israeli AD has had poor percentages even with some basic missiles (i.e. 1 or 2) last June as well.
Here's the thing though. Israel doesn't seem to care about the damage Iran can inflict on them, because they keep attacking Iran.
I've heard wildly different assessments of Israel/US missile defense over recent years, but ultimately I think it comes down to whether Iran can shoot up Israel enough to get them to back off. So far that doesn't seem to have happened.
It's a war of attrition. Absolutely nobody I follow - and those are anti-interventionist in nature because conflicts are not in my tax paying interests - stated that Iran would overwhelm U.S.-Israeli attacks in a matter of days. In fact, they said the exact opposite, pointing towards the futility of bombing missions including the ~20 years in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen by Gulf countries, Yemen by U.S., etc., and that it's an asymmetric war with asymmetric victory conditions.
They note that Iran has been preparing for this exact scenario for dozens of years and believe Iran can fight for months. They point out, correctly, about the limitations of U.S. anti-defense missiles and have consistently been stating them for years. Last year, Israel had to beg for a ceasefire because they were caught off-guard by how quickly Iran was able to counter-attack within 10-12 hours after initiation, and how poorly the AD fared as days passed.
Will this be the same for this war? I don't know, though I tend to believe it. Absolutely nobody knows the answer to how deep their stockpiles are, nor the quantity of their launchers, and those are the most important factors (Israeli AD being ineffective is a simple fact). Iran claims it can fight for many months but how true that is remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the U.S. is constantly changing its story about the intended length of this campaign; if you buy the angle that this engagement was intended to be a 4 day war led again by decapitation attacks, then Iran was victorious in thwarting original U.S.-Israeli plans.
My guess IF true, China has been saying to knock it off attacking the energy infrastructure THEY also rely on. Hearing word China is withholding exporting oil already.
The language used suggests that they'll only be off limits unless the US is still using them as a staging ground.
It's a try at twisting their wrists. And if that's the case it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
The thing is, I haven't heard the US or Israel (like they'd be ALLOWED) launching any of the attacks from Gulf state bases.
Plus at the end of this, I'm betting the Gilf states try to order MORE patriot air defence systems, laser and microwave drone defense as they'll NEVER trust Iran again after this.
From where do you think they used the Himars launchers against Iran? Arizona? And whose airspace is the US/Israel using for their bombing runs against Iran? They're not going around the Arabian peninsula that much I can promise you.
The Gulf states are 100% complicit in the war against Iran. All the radar installations were there for a reason and it wasn't to defend the Gulf states.
What that statement means remains to be seen.
And Iran just attacked US assets in Bahrain again. Guess that answers that question.
This is what a Telegram aggregator (Middle East Spectator) claims:
I take caution in accepting everything he says at face value - though the combat videos are straight-forward - so I'm not sure about the credibility of these statements, but it is kind of hilarious.
Edit: Leaning more and more towards my Azerbaijan hypothesis as they were furious. There was also the brief tension with Turkey preceding it, which got resolved extremely quickly with Turkey stating the intended target was Cyprus.
I've found Middle East Spectator to be quite reliable over the last couple of years. I've not seen a single instance of blatant propaganda and they don't just parrot Iranian propaganda. They usually call it out and tell their own guys to stop being retards. And when they've spread false information they actually own up to it and correct it. They're infinitely more reliable than any of the (mainstream) media outlets we have although to be fair that is not exactly difficult.
But yes, always remain skeptical. No matter how much you trust a news channel never trust them blindly.
Yep. Corroborated by Cradle now - https://t.me/thecradlemedia/53314
The original news was being iterated by many sources, but it was indeed a PR mistake.
You do realize the U.S. has had to bounce around all the way to Cyprus? Why do you think this is? Also, even ignoring the physical aspect of launch and re-fueling, you're also ignoring other logistics such as intelligence (radar, etc.). The Arab countries constantly say something while meaning another.
Azerbaijan and other countries have been contemplating becoming more active in the conflict. Maybe that's the reason for this turn? I don't know, China and India aren't happy, and they are BRICS countries but they also realize the existential crisis.
Anyway, good luck to the Arab countries wanting more Patriot systems. They're useless without the missiles, which we don't make enough of within a given year, each intercept takes 2+ missiles (Israel sometimes launching 8 or 10), cost ~$4M per missile IIRC, and are useless against ballistics. They do well enough against super slow drones and cruise missiles though, and decoys.
BTW, I saw some footage of the "Iron
LaserBeam" once. Not sure if that was real, but it seemed useless. All these anti-defense technologies are worthless until provably good. THAAD and the rest "mature" AD so far is pathetic; Israel knows first hand, and countries also have to re-think over-reliance with U.S. because they're not defended, Israel is, and stockpiles are re-distributed to Israel in times of crunch. South Korea also learning about this first-hand.Saudi Arabia wanted Iran proverbially nuked off the face of the Earth but have been engaged in optics just like everyone else. Recently, Iran praised them for being so understanding and restrained despite Iran's attack on their U.S. assets, and it turned out within hours (4? 12? 24?) that an Israeli transponder hadn't been turned off, and landed in the kingdom... There has never been "trust" or whatever you think with Iran of all countries. They, the Houthis, and Hezbollah are utterly despised by Arabs.
I know the UK was working on using microwaves to defend against drones by using that to fry the electronics and since it's something like that, it's EXTREMELY cost effective.
That seems to be the pattern nowadays as why there is also an interest in lasers. States like Iran, China and to an extent Russia rely on overwhelming through sheer numbers. If you can take out drones with microwaves and lasers and I know Japan has a working railgun they want to use as missile defence, if blunts swarm tactics. For now US and Israel between bombing Iranian leadership seems to be focusing on launch and production facilities.
Every single country of relevance is working on this type of technology for decades. The question is, is any of this practical and combat proven? So far the answer is "no".
BTW, it's not just a numbers game. Israeli AD has had poor percentages even with some basic missiles (i.e. 1 or 2) last June as well. Iran was sending few missiles at the end of the prior war and having significant success...and back then, the 5 now-destroyed radars in the Arab countries feeding Israel advance intelligence still existed.
Here's a good recent video with Ted Postal on intercept examples for anyone interested - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2yQ3kBAQIk
Here's the thing though. Israel doesn't seem to care about the damage Iran can inflict on them, because they keep attacking Iran.
I've heard wildly different assessments of Israel/US missile defense over recent years, but ultimately I think it comes down to whether Iran can shoot up Israel enough to get them to back off. So far that doesn't seem to have happened.
It's a war of attrition. Absolutely nobody I follow - and those are anti-interventionist in nature because conflicts are not in my tax paying interests - stated that Iran would overwhelm U.S.-Israeli attacks in a matter of days. In fact, they said the exact opposite, pointing towards the futility of bombing missions including the ~20 years in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen by Gulf countries, Yemen by U.S., etc., and that it's an asymmetric war with asymmetric victory conditions.
They note that Iran has been preparing for this exact scenario for dozens of years and believe Iran can fight for months. They point out, correctly, about the limitations of U.S. anti-defense missiles and have consistently been stating them for years. Last year, Israel had to beg for a ceasefire because they were caught off-guard by how quickly Iran was able to counter-attack within 10-12 hours after initiation, and how poorly the AD fared as days passed.
Will this be the same for this war? I don't know, though I tend to believe it. Absolutely nobody knows the answer to how deep their stockpiles are, nor the quantity of their launchers, and those are the most important factors (Israeli AD being ineffective is a simple fact). Iran claims it can fight for many months but how true that is remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the U.S. is constantly changing its story about the intended length of this campaign; if you buy the angle that this engagement was intended to be a 4 day war led again by decapitation attacks, then Iran was victorious in thwarting original U.S.-Israeli plans.
No comment except "gilf" states is a hell of a typo.
Haha, I'm leaving that in lol. Anyway heard a drone just hit Dubai airport so they seem to be full of shit already.
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)