Every single country of relevance is working on this type of technology for decades. The question is, is any of this practical and combat proven? So far the answer is "no".
BTW, it's not just a numbers game. Israeli AD has had poor percentages even with some basic missiles (i.e. 1 or 2) last June as well. Iran was sending few missiles at the end of the prior war and having significant success...and back then, the 5 now-destroyed radars in the Arab countries feeding Israel advance intelligence still existed.
BTW, it's not just a numbers game. Israeli AD has had poor percentages even with some basic missiles (i.e. 1 or 2) last June as well.
Here's the thing though. Israel doesn't seem to care about the damage Iran can inflict on them, because they keep attacking Iran.
I've heard wildly different assessments of Israel/US missile defense over recent years, but ultimately I think it comes down to whether Iran can shoot up Israel enough to get them to back off. So far that doesn't seem to have happened.
It's a war of attrition. Absolutely nobody I follow - and those are anti-interventionist in nature because conflicts are not in my tax paying interests - stated that Iran would overwhelm U.S.-Israeli attacks in a matter of days. In fact, they said the exact opposite, pointing towards the futility of bombing missions including the ~20 years in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen by Gulf countries, Yemen by U.S., etc., and that it's an asymmetric war with asymmetric victory conditions.
They note that Iran has been preparing for this exact scenario for dozens of years and believe Iran can fight for months. They point out, correctly, about the limitations of U.S. anti-defense missiles and have consistently been stating them for years. Last year, Israel had to beg for a ceasefire because they were caught off-guard by how quickly Iran was able to counter-attack within 10-12 hours after initiation, and how poorly the AD fared as days passed.
Will this be the same for this war? I don't know, though I tend to believe it. Absolutely nobody knows the answer to how deep their stockpiles are, nor the quantity of their launchers, and those are the most important factors (Israeli AD being ineffective is a simple fact). Iran claims it can fight for many months but how true that is remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the U.S. is constantly changing its story about the intended length of this campaign; if you buy the angle that this engagement was intended to be a 4 day war led again by decapitation attacks, then Iran was victorious in thwarting original U.S.-Israeli plans.
Every single country of relevance is working on this type of technology for decades. The question is, is any of this practical and combat proven? So far the answer is "no".
BTW, it's not just a numbers game. Israeli AD has had poor percentages even with some basic missiles (i.e. 1 or 2) last June as well. Iran was sending few missiles at the end of the prior war and having significant success...and back then, the 5 now-destroyed radars in the Arab countries feeding Israel advance intelligence still existed.
Here's a good recent video with Ted Postal on intercept examples for anyone interested - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2yQ3kBAQIk
Here's the thing though. Israel doesn't seem to care about the damage Iran can inflict on them, because they keep attacking Iran.
I've heard wildly different assessments of Israel/US missile defense over recent years, but ultimately I think it comes down to whether Iran can shoot up Israel enough to get them to back off. So far that doesn't seem to have happened.
It's a war of attrition. Absolutely nobody I follow - and those are anti-interventionist in nature because conflicts are not in my tax paying interests - stated that Iran would overwhelm U.S.-Israeli attacks in a matter of days. In fact, they said the exact opposite, pointing towards the futility of bombing missions including the ~20 years in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen by Gulf countries, Yemen by U.S., etc., and that it's an asymmetric war with asymmetric victory conditions.
They note that Iran has been preparing for this exact scenario for dozens of years and believe Iran can fight for months. They point out, correctly, about the limitations of U.S. anti-defense missiles and have consistently been stating them for years. Last year, Israel had to beg for a ceasefire because they were caught off-guard by how quickly Iran was able to counter-attack within 10-12 hours after initiation, and how poorly the AD fared as days passed.
Will this be the same for this war? I don't know, though I tend to believe it. Absolutely nobody knows the answer to how deep their stockpiles are, nor the quantity of their launchers, and those are the most important factors (Israeli AD being ineffective is a simple fact). Iran claims it can fight for many months but how true that is remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the U.S. is constantly changing its story about the intended length of this campaign; if you buy the angle that this engagement was intended to be a 4 day war led again by decapitation attacks, then Iran was victorious in thwarting original U.S.-Israeli plans.