The problem is that we are not ready for a global trade slow down. We need years to build more factories and a labor force. We're bargaining from a position of weakness in most cases.
Nobody is going to build those factories without an upset.
Everyone's been saying for years, maybe decades, in the US and Europe, that we need production capabilities. Yet nobody ever did anything because nobody wanted to rock the boat or risk anything.
Nobody is going to build those factories without an upset.
This is true but I don't know if it will work. There's a huge risk that companies view this as a comparison between:
Invest a bunch of money in US factories that won't be operational until 2028 or later
Do nothing different until 2028
The next 4 years are down for everyone regardless and then it's a question of if they thought these policies will outlast Trump. Practically, I think this is the kind of thing that has to be done at the start of a two-term span and winning that second election would be a bitch because voters are short-sighted and there'd be a deluge of globalist contributions to the opposition. Or it needs to be done through legislation that can't be undone day 1 of a new president.
If they think the tariffs will go away before the new production is on-line, there's not really financial pressure to invest.
The problem is that we are not ready for a global trade slow down. We need years to build more factories and a labor force. We're bargaining from a position of weakness in most cases.
Nobody is going to build those factories without an upset.
Everyone's been saying for years, maybe decades, in the US and Europe, that we need production capabilities. Yet nobody ever did anything because nobody wanted to rock the boat or risk anything.
This is true but I don't know if it will work. There's a huge risk that companies view this as a comparison between:
The next 4 years are down for everyone regardless and then it's a question of if they thought these policies will outlast Trump. Practically, I think this is the kind of thing that has to be done at the start of a two-term span and winning that second election would be a bitch because voters are short-sighted and there'd be a deluge of globalist contributions to the opposition. Or it needs to be done through legislation that can't be undone day 1 of a new president.
If they think the tariffs will go away before the new production is on-line, there's not really financial pressure to invest.
I doubt they will be built now, either. There is too much uncertainty.
We'll see when the dust settles. All this current hysteria is meaningless until they've come to an agreement.