South Korean president is attempting a coup d'etat
(www.reuters.com)
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Ironically from this, I can actually see the NORTH Koreans going 'Get Trump on the phone, get Trump on the phone!' as the South is VERY militarily advanced compared to the North so would rather have a deal with the Trump presidency in place than risk a possible conflict with an authoritarian south.
Advanced isn't especially relevant in a fight at those ranges. The Norks make more shells than most of the rest of the world combined. Enough to comfortably sell their surplus to the Russians.
Given that South Korea is the THIRD largest supplier of weapons to NATO (far behind the US but just behind France) they actually do have a solid manufacturing base in place.
Plus they tend to place factories inside client countries so tanks, weapons etc can be made there but also means if THEIR manufacturing is hit in a war with the North, they can have a bunch of equipment that is to spec sent to them from safe areas.
I didn't say they didn't.
I said they don't match up to their old enemy. I also implied that they're a highly feminized and pampered society that isn't genuinely able to endure the hardships of war.
In that way they're a lot like Europe. Fat and drunk on peace.
Actually they're in a much worse state than Europe. Because if as you say their manufacturing base is elsewhere, then they're utterly doomed. Because the Chinese won't sit idly by if a fight breaks out. They'll declare a sea blockade for arms embargo and sit there and dare the US to do something about it.
And we won't. Because if the shit kicking Houthis drove off our navy then we certainly aren't in a position to contest the chinks for control of an area in their backyard.
Yeah, problem is that's working off the CURRENT paradigm, that only lasts another one and a half months.
Notice how China changed tone with Trump announced back in as president and you seem to be working off the NORTH attacking first since if the South just straight up bombs the hell out of a lot of stuff stationed on the border that might tilt things a bit. The South has a ton of manufacturing at home but additionally have manufacturing outside their country too so you can't shut it all down.
Personal take, a lot of these regimes like North Korea and some extent Russia and China prefer stability and if North Korea can do a deal with Trump to make sure they stay in charge but not a target, they'll take it given the constant food issues they have.
And judging by North Korean soldiers in Ukraine, they're not exactly commandos...
If the past few years have taught me anything, it's that advanced weaponry counts for less than people think. Just because the US can crush the Iraqi army like a bug, doesn't mean that technology will make the decisive difference between two sides where one doesn't outmatch the other by several orders of magnitude.
Sort of like World War I: if you have warm bodies to throw into the fight, and they don't desert like the Russians did, you can get very far.
So then as usual you didn't learn anything and you still think you get to talk about military matters from an armchair.
Technological parity or lack thereof is critically important, but neglecting manufacturing capability and the moral and physical fitness of the citizenry for it is a trap. One that the United States fell into at the behest of foreign interests and internal corruption.
Warfare is, among other things, a balancing act between force multipliers.
The other thing is that technology doesn't often mean what we think it does, like nerdy wonder weapons. The real tech advantage is the ability to create new things and adapt (or having already done so).
Like in the WWII Pacific we had no chance of getting close enough to Japan to even drop the nukes without the Proximity Fuse, which was a relatively low tech radar that exploded shells near targets so they didn't have to actually direct hit. Not a single kamikaze got through after we had those shells and then we controlled the sea.
Not exactly a chair, but sort of.
All the 'modernization' didn't help Russia. All the Wonder Weapons didn't help Ukraine. Now it's the same old grind.
I can follow your thought process, but it's a faulty process. Any reasonable person knew the Ukrainian wunderwaffen were never going to be decisive.
I suppose, but Seoul has long since been within the range of NK artillery for decades.
It's more hedging bets:
Better to start talking with soon President Trump to get deals in motion so that whatever is happening in the south stays contained in the south.