You think it is impossible to win, so just lay down and rot?
The right CAN win if we make some important changes but no you guys say it is impossible to ever win an election again because of "election fraud" and you refuse to do anything to improve the situation.
Most of the people in the doomer wing refuse to change anything and are fervent OnlyTrump for 2024.
I despise the doomer wing of the party as much I despise the left.
I despise the doomer wing of the party as much I despise the left.
The reason the doomer wing of the party are doomers is because the party is led by cretins like McConnell who would rather condemn the party to permanent minority status than give up control of it and sure as shit don't want to upset their Democrat butt buddies by using their dirty tricks against them. I actually agree with most of your political analysis, but it doesn't mean jack shit unless the fraud problem is dealt with somehow. I used to believe in the "margin of fraud", but the shit show in November made it clear that we need to do more than win big victories.
Republicans are going to have a hard time if Democrats keep up with the type of machine politics described in this article. Republicans are terrified of the type of voter they would pick up with that kind of machine - white, working class, no college degree - the Forgotten Man that pushed Trump over the finish line in 2016. The GOP's problem is that they want to be the party of neoliberalism, mass immigration, and neocon wars, none of which are appealing to this type of voter.
Interesting article. The media will always be an arm for the democrats for the most part. I don’t think re-hashing the 2020 election will do any good but it always annoys me that those who talked about Trump and Russia weren’t attacked as election deniers.
We need to nominate sane candidates who understand that they shouldn't yell "muh Trump won 2020 election" when we will be in 2024.
There is a "very special" segment of our base who think yelling the election was stolen helps you in a general election.
YELLING STOLEN ELECTION DOES NOT HELP, IT HURTS OUR CANDIDATES BADLY!
GOP voters know what happened in 2020 but constantly complaining about it only pushes away the independent voters we need to win. We must look forward not backwards if we want to win.
Stop doing this self destructive shit!
Yelling stolen election is sadly being rewarded in GOP primaries. The "very special" Trumpist portion of the base thinks these candidates are fighters and based. What a fucking clown parade.
The Dems control the major institutions like the media, corps and academia so they can freely push their desired narratives. They have advantages we don't have. We won't get to call Dems election deniers and have it stick because we don't have the major institutions. It is unfair and it sucks horribly but we cannot do anything about that.
Complaining about unfairness and losing in the end is useless. We must find a way to win despite our disadvantages.
We have to win the game with the cards we have not the cards we wish we had.
The value of 2020 and 2022 is in understanding what is being done to us. "2000 Mules" is currently why there is any attempt for the Republicans to try their hand at Ballot Harvesting (which Trump has now publicly supported), and Kari Lake's election lawsuit is setting the grounds of how to frame and make appeals that can make progress in courts without the court, appellate court, and supreme court telling you to kill yourself in an official decision.
Additionally, the focus on election integrity is helping to secure hard-won victories in places where Republicans won. Your position of "It is unfair and it sucks horribly" is as fucking black-pilled as Norenia's comment.
It's harder to pre-count turnout and manufacture fake ballots in the appropriate volume when you don't know what the opposition turnout is going to be. Libshits didn't want Joe Biden to get 100M votes and get people's noggins joggin.
The thing we didn't realize was they'd be willing to fake the votes in reported totals and manufacture them days or weeks later while "still counting".
This is one of the reasons why we need to pass legislation to allow counties to refuse to announce their totals. We know that it's the couple democratic counties that have urban cores which need to construct a mass total of votes. They keep counting... while everyone else stopped.
If you don't announce the vote totals until all counties have finished counting, they don't know how many votes they need to count to. If they guess too high, the fraud becomes obvious and prosecutable. If they guess to low, they lose the election. It incentivizes them to claim they got 150% turnout.
Finally, the means. Two factors combined to provide Democrats with the means to exploit these opportunities. The first was the prevalence of Democrat-friendly easy and early mail-in voting rules in the Breakwater States. The second was the enormous amount of financial support available to Democrats to fund extensive mobilization campaigns in these states – boosting the turnout of Democratic voters who likely would otherwise not vote. The already in-place candidate, party, and supporting organizations, important to earlier Democratic electoral success in these states, also likely contributed an important platform for mounting this mobilization effort.
I think this is mostly correct.
Norenia's black-pilling aside: mail-in voter fraud is absolutely the mechanism here. The difference is that RCP just doesn't call it out as explicitly as I am. Mail-in voter fraud is absolutely the big breakwater system in place. It means that each republican candidate probably needs to win by 5-10 points to tie.
Additionally, there are Democratic mobilizing efforts.
I would actually argue that we have such a partisan conditions right now, that entire issues have no effect on one party, but a massive effect on the other. For Democrats, it's abortion. For Republicans, it's crime.
Democrats are massively influenced by abortion as a topic. Any and all abortion restrictions do activate their base. But it doesn't have an inverse effect for Republicans. Republicans aren't going to show up in droves if abortion limits are made a month earlier. Democrats will treat it as the sole driving factor of the election. To a Republican, killing babies one month sooner does not change the problem. To a Democrat, you are trying to kill the mother.
Republicans, however, are massively influenced by crime as a topic. It's already a steady diet of right-wing media, that is a form of propaganda to emphasize discontent with the current leadership. Republicans absolutely demand law, order, and justice. Democrats explicitly don't care about crime. The New York Governor's race is damning in this. The Dem candidate pretended crime didn't exist. To this day, the first propaganda weapon of the Democrats against crime is to pretend it doesn't exist. The Mayor of London once said that Terrorism is part and parcel to living in a big city, and that attitude is reflected everywhere in Democratic circles. So long as the donor class doesn't feel the effects of high crime, the Democratic lower class have simply embraced it. They are totally uneffected by piles of shit in the street, needles everywhere, and rampant violence. You've got to understand that they literally don't care, and the criminality and degeneracy has been totally normalized to them. The fact that Lee Zeldin got 85% of the hasidic jewish vote in New York city is because the community was targeted, explicitly, by crime and tyranny. As a voting bloc, they flipped because of crime targeting them. However, huge swathes of the rest of New York City simply do not mind the levels of crime they are experiencing. Look at the responses we see from even wealthy Leftists who are robbed or mugged. Crime is normal to them, and as such it doesn't drive responses.
Well, both sides actually did that in the midterms. Democrats are still pretending that it's all anti-abortion backlash on CNN, but that's utter hogwash. Abortion just wasn't a major driver for Republican votes like it was for Democrat votes. Similarly, a lot of Republican hopes were, and are, placed on crime being a major factor in gaining Democratic votes, but they only just gain Republican votes.
So, the result isn't too surprising if you see:
Continuing Democratic mail-in fraud efforts
Establishment Republicans heavily focusing on abortion to drive Democratic votes
Populist Republicans heavily focusing on crime, which converts zero Democratic votes
Establishment Republicans intentionally mis-spending money on defeating MAGA candidates
Democrats exploiting abortion to fundraise and hyper-focus their money
I think the article's " Dem breakwater" theory is something the right needs to be prepared for in 2024.
It is clear that the 2022 red wave fizzled out for a variety of reasons.
We must avoid repeating the same mistakes in 2024.
We squandered 2022 with bad candidates in swing states like Doug Mastriano and Dr. Oz that only won the GOP nomination because Trump endorsed them, Roe being overturned bolstering Dem enthusiasm, the juggernaut mail in voting machine that Dems have created in key states and a general Dem fundraising differential in key races.
And urban dem stronghold counties manufacturing votes via mail-in ballots. Which will always provide the necessary margin for victory, so nothing else matters.
Although overturning roe v wade right before the election was monumentally stupid. So much so that it was almost certainly an op.
Your statement, "And urban dem stronghold counties manufacturing votes via mail-in ballots. Which will always provide the necessary margin for victory, so nothing else matters." is complete doomerism with no basis in reality. We absolutely can still win elections in swing states if we just make some smart changes.
Republicans need to implement a ballot harvesting operation in swing states. We cannot just have our base wait until election day to vote. What if there is inclement weather or the person is unable to vote for some reason? We saw what happened in Arizona 2022 where on election day, there were incredible amounts of shenanigans in polling places in Maricopa county. We cannot let that repeat in 2024.
We need to not nominate poor candidates like Doug Mastriano and Dr. Oz. We need to stop running people in swing states who say stupid shit on the issue of abortion. We need to stop running people who constantly scream about 2020 being stolen instead of talking about key present day issues.
Doug Mastriano was absolutely the worst candidate the GOP had running in any race in 2022. He said he wanted to arrest women for getting abortions and he kept constantly screaming about 2020 being stolen. He was crushed by Josh Shapiro and we lost so many races down-ballot. The GOP lost the PA state house for the first time in a while thanks to how shit tier Mastriano was.
The worst part is that bastard Mastriano is announcing a run for Senator in 2024 this week. That retard needs to be crushed in the primaries.
Dem mail in ballot schemes can feasibly only tilt close races. If mail in ballot schemes could win every race, then the Dems would choose to win every single race. They give no fucks about subtlety or making it look realistic. They only value power and achieving it at any cost.
In 2024, We need to win by a margin that is outside the margin of ballot shenanigans being able to tilt it the other way.
Republicans need to implement a ballot harvesting operation in swing states.
In other words become better cheaters than the Dems. Not that I disagree with this, but it kind of makes the point that fraud is a serious problem. The Republicans are too honest, at least the ones that aren't traitors that is.
Ok people here need to understand that ballot harvesting does NOT automatically mean cheating.
In certain swing states like NV ballot harvesting is absolutely legal.
Ballot Harvesting means someone affiliated with the party goes to mail in voter homes and picks up their ballot and deposits those ballots in a drop off box or at the polling places.
Yes there are obviously ways this process can be corrupted and abused by malicious actors but the mere act of going around and collecting ballots is not cheating at all in certain key states.
Legal != honest. Election security laws would be meaningless otherwise.
Yes there are obviously ways this process can be corrupted and abused by malicious actors
Correct. That's why ballot harvesting is opposed by (honest) Republicans and supported by Democrats. It opens the door to all kinds of dirty tricks. There was an incident in Florida where ballot harvesters were changing or discarding Republican ballots. Funny how it's never the other way around.
Mind you, I'm in favor of playing as dirty as the other side does since that's the only way to win these days. I just don't think we should pretend that we're being any more honest than the Dems are when they do it. Stopping the shenanigans all together would still be my first choice.
Rigged elections is the only factor that matters.
You think it is impossible to win, so just lay down and rot?
The right CAN win if we make some important changes but no you guys say it is impossible to ever win an election again because of "election fraud" and you refuse to do anything to improve the situation.
Most of the people in the doomer wing refuse to change anything and are fervent OnlyTrump for 2024.
I despise the doomer wing of the party as much I despise the left.
The reason the doomer wing of the party are doomers is because the party is led by cretins like McConnell who would rather condemn the party to permanent minority status than give up control of it and sure as shit don't want to upset their Democrat butt buddies by using their dirty tricks against them. I actually agree with most of your political analysis, but it doesn't mean jack shit unless the fraud problem is dealt with somehow. I used to believe in the "margin of fraud", but the shit show in November made it clear that we need to do more than win big victories.
Republicans are going to have a hard time if Democrats keep up with the type of machine politics described in this article. Republicans are terrified of the type of voter they would pick up with that kind of machine - white, working class, no college degree - the Forgotten Man that pushed Trump over the finish line in 2016. The GOP's problem is that they want to be the party of neoliberalism, mass immigration, and neocon wars, none of which are appealing to this type of voter.
I have this argument frequently: I don't want to vote for someone who only knows how to lose gracefully, I want to vote for someone who wants to WIN.
Interesting article. The media will always be an arm for the democrats for the most part. I don’t think re-hashing the 2020 election will do any good but it always annoys me that those who talked about Trump and Russia weren’t attacked as election deniers.
We need to nominate sane candidates who understand that they shouldn't yell "muh Trump won 2020 election" when we will be in 2024.
There is a "very special" segment of our base who think yelling the election was stolen helps you in a general election.
YELLING STOLEN ELECTION DOES NOT HELP, IT HURTS OUR CANDIDATES BADLY!
GOP voters know what happened in 2020 but constantly complaining about it only pushes away the independent voters we need to win. We must look forward not backwards if we want to win.
Stop doing this self destructive shit!
Yelling stolen election is sadly being rewarded in GOP primaries. The "very special" Trumpist portion of the base thinks these candidates are fighters and based. What a fucking clown parade.
The Dems control the major institutions like the media, corps and academia so they can freely push their desired narratives. They have advantages we don't have. We won't get to call Dems election deniers and have it stick because we don't have the major institutions. It is unfair and it sucks horribly but we cannot do anything about that.
Complaining about unfairness and losing in the end is useless. We must find a way to win despite our disadvantages.
We have to win the game with the cards we have not the cards we wish we had.
The value of 2020 and 2022 is in understanding what is being done to us. "2000 Mules" is currently why there is any attempt for the Republicans to try their hand at Ballot Harvesting (which Trump has now publicly supported), and Kari Lake's election lawsuit is setting the grounds of how to frame and make appeals that can make progress in courts without the court, appellate court, and supreme court telling you to kill yourself in an official decision.
Additionally, the focus on election integrity is helping to secure hard-won victories in places where Republicans won. Your position of "It is unfair and it sucks horribly" is as fucking black-pilled as Norenia's comment.
And you are right about the fact that where it is allowed we need to ballot harvest. I prefer early voting though.
I voted early in person in Texas and they had good election integrity while being very accessible.
Trump absolutely needs to stop attacking early voting and mail in ballots and influencing the base that they must ONLY vote on election day.
We cannot ban early voting and mail in ballots so we have to adjust to reality and make use of all available options.
Smart GOP governors like Brian Kemp, Glenn Youngkin and Ron DeSantis all told voters they could vote early, by mail or on election day.
Telling all of your voters to wait to vote on election day where things can prevent people from voting is a nightmare waiting to unfold.
It's harder to pre-count turnout and manufacture fake ballots in the appropriate volume when you don't know what the opposition turnout is going to be. Libshits didn't want Joe Biden to get 100M votes and get people's noggins joggin.
The thing we didn't realize was they'd be willing to fake the votes in reported totals and manufacture them days or weeks later while "still counting".
This is one of the reasons why we need to pass legislation to allow counties to refuse to announce their totals. We know that it's the couple democratic counties that have urban cores which need to construct a mass total of votes. They keep counting... while everyone else stopped.
If you don't announce the vote totals until all counties have finished counting, they don't know how many votes they need to count to. If they guess too high, the fraud becomes obvious and prosecutable. If they guess to low, they lose the election. It incentivizes them to claim they got 150% turnout.
I think this is mostly correct.
Norenia's black-pilling aside: mail-in voter fraud is absolutely the mechanism here. The difference is that RCP just doesn't call it out as explicitly as I am. Mail-in voter fraud is absolutely the big breakwater system in place. It means that each republican candidate probably needs to win by 5-10 points to tie.
Additionally, there are Democratic mobilizing efforts.
I would actually argue that we have such a partisan conditions right now, that entire issues have no effect on one party, but a massive effect on the other. For Democrats, it's abortion. For Republicans, it's crime.
Democrats are massively influenced by abortion as a topic. Any and all abortion restrictions do activate their base. But it doesn't have an inverse effect for Republicans. Republicans aren't going to show up in droves if abortion limits are made a month earlier. Democrats will treat it as the sole driving factor of the election. To a Republican, killing babies one month sooner does not change the problem. To a Democrat, you are trying to kill the mother.
Republicans, however, are massively influenced by crime as a topic. It's already a steady diet of right-wing media, that is a form of propaganda to emphasize discontent with the current leadership. Republicans absolutely demand law, order, and justice. Democrats explicitly don't care about crime. The New York Governor's race is damning in this. The Dem candidate pretended crime didn't exist. To this day, the first propaganda weapon of the Democrats against crime is to pretend it doesn't exist. The Mayor of London once said that Terrorism is part and parcel to living in a big city, and that attitude is reflected everywhere in Democratic circles. So long as the donor class doesn't feel the effects of high crime, the Democratic lower class have simply embraced it. They are totally uneffected by piles of shit in the street, needles everywhere, and rampant violence. You've got to understand that they literally don't care, and the criminality and degeneracy has been totally normalized to them. The fact that Lee Zeldin got 85% of the hasidic jewish vote in New York city is because the community was targeted, explicitly, by crime and tyranny. As a voting bloc, they flipped because of crime targeting them. However, huge swathes of the rest of New York City simply do not mind the levels of crime they are experiencing. Look at the responses we see from even wealthy Leftists who are robbed or mugged. Crime is normal to them, and as such it doesn't drive responses.
Well, both sides actually did that in the midterms. Democrats are still pretending that it's all anti-abortion backlash on CNN, but that's utter hogwash. Abortion just wasn't a major driver for Republican votes like it was for Democrat votes. Similarly, a lot of Republican hopes were, and are, placed on crime being a major factor in gaining Democratic votes, but they only just gain Republican votes.
So, the result isn't too surprising if you see:
I think the article's " Dem breakwater" theory is something the right needs to be prepared for in 2024.
It is clear that the 2022 red wave fizzled out for a variety of reasons.
We must avoid repeating the same mistakes in 2024.
We squandered 2022 with bad candidates in swing states like Doug Mastriano and Dr. Oz that only won the GOP nomination because Trump endorsed them, Roe being overturned bolstering Dem enthusiasm, the juggernaut mail in voting machine that Dems have created in key states and a general Dem fundraising differential in key races.
And urban dem stronghold counties manufacturing votes via mail-in ballots. Which will always provide the necessary margin for victory, so nothing else matters.
Although overturning roe v wade right before the election was monumentally stupid. So much so that it was almost certainly an op.
Your statement, "And urban dem stronghold counties manufacturing votes via mail-in ballots. Which will always provide the necessary margin for victory, so nothing else matters." is complete doomerism with no basis in reality. We absolutely can still win elections in swing states if we just make some smart changes.
Republicans need to implement a ballot harvesting operation in swing states. We cannot just have our base wait until election day to vote. What if there is inclement weather or the person is unable to vote for some reason? We saw what happened in Arizona 2022 where on election day, there were incredible amounts of shenanigans in polling places in Maricopa county. We cannot let that repeat in 2024.
We need to not nominate poor candidates like Doug Mastriano and Dr. Oz. We need to stop running people in swing states who say stupid shit on the issue of abortion. We need to stop running people who constantly scream about 2020 being stolen instead of talking about key present day issues.
Doug Mastriano was absolutely the worst candidate the GOP had running in any race in 2022. He said he wanted to arrest women for getting abortions and he kept constantly screaming about 2020 being stolen. He was crushed by Josh Shapiro and we lost so many races down-ballot. The GOP lost the PA state house for the first time in a while thanks to how shit tier Mastriano was.
The worst part is that bastard Mastriano is announcing a run for Senator in 2024 this week. That retard needs to be crushed in the primaries.
Dem mail in ballot schemes can feasibly only tilt close races. If mail in ballot schemes could win every race, then the Dems would choose to win every single race. They give no fucks about subtlety or making it look realistic. They only value power and achieving it at any cost.
In 2024, We need to win by a margin that is outside the margin of ballot shenanigans being able to tilt it the other way.
In other words become better cheaters than the Dems. Not that I disagree with this, but it kind of makes the point that fraud is a serious problem. The Republicans are too honest, at least the ones that aren't traitors that is.
Ok people here need to understand that ballot harvesting does NOT automatically mean cheating.
In certain swing states like NV ballot harvesting is absolutely legal.
Ballot Harvesting means someone affiliated with the party goes to mail in voter homes and picks up their ballot and deposits those ballots in a drop off box or at the polling places.
Yes there are obviously ways this process can be corrupted and abused by malicious actors but the mere act of going around and collecting ballots is not cheating at all in certain key states.
Legal != honest. Election security laws would be meaningless otherwise.
Correct. That's why ballot harvesting is opposed by (honest) Republicans and supported by Democrats. It opens the door to all kinds of dirty tricks. There was an incident in Florida where ballot harvesters were changing or discarding Republican ballots. Funny how it's never the other way around.
Mind you, I'm in favor of playing as dirty as the other side does since that's the only way to win these days. I just don't think we should pretend that we're being any more honest than the Dems are when they do it. Stopping the shenanigans all together would still be my first choice.