Finally, the means. Two factors combined to provide Democrats with the means to exploit these opportunities. The first was the prevalence of Democrat-friendly easy and early mail-in voting rules in the Breakwater States. The second was the enormous amount of financial support available to Democrats to fund extensive mobilization campaigns in these states – boosting the turnout of Democratic voters who likely would otherwise not vote. The already in-place candidate, party, and supporting organizations, important to earlier Democratic electoral success in these states, also likely contributed an important platform for mounting this mobilization effort.
I think this is mostly correct.
Norenia's black-pilling aside: mail-in voter fraud is absolutely the mechanism here. The difference is that RCP just doesn't call it out as explicitly as I am. Mail-in voter fraud is absolutely the big breakwater system in place. It means that each republican candidate probably needs to win by 5-10 points to tie.
Additionally, there are Democratic mobilizing efforts.
I would actually argue that we have such a partisan conditions right now, that entire issues have no effect on one party, but a massive effect on the other. For Democrats, it's abortion. For Republicans, it's crime.
Democrats are massively influenced by abortion as a topic. Any and all abortion restrictions do activate their base. But it doesn't have an inverse effect for Republicans. Republicans aren't going to show up in droves if abortion limits are made a month earlier. Democrats will treat it as the sole driving factor of the election. To a Republican, killing babies one month sooner does not change the problem. To a Democrat, you are trying to kill the mother.
Republicans, however, are massively influenced by crime as a topic. It's already a steady diet of right-wing media, that is a form of propaganda to emphasize discontent with the current leadership. Republicans absolutely demand law, order, and justice. Democrats explicitly don't care about crime. The New York Governor's race is damning in this. The Dem candidate pretended crime didn't exist. To this day, the first propaganda weapon of the Democrats against crime is to pretend it doesn't exist. The Mayor of London once said that Terrorism is part and parcel to living in a big city, and that attitude is reflected everywhere in Democratic circles. So long as the donor class doesn't feel the effects of high crime, the Democratic lower class have simply embraced it. They are totally uneffected by piles of shit in the street, needles everywhere, and rampant violence. You've got to understand that they literally don't care, and the criminality and degeneracy has been totally normalized to them. The fact that Lee Zeldin got 85% of the hasidic jewish vote in New York city is because the community was targeted, explicitly, by crime and tyranny. As a voting bloc, they flipped because of crime targeting them. However, huge swathes of the rest of New York City simply do not mind the levels of crime they are experiencing. Look at the responses we see from even wealthy Leftists who are robbed or mugged. Crime is normal to them, and as such it doesn't drive responses.
Well, both sides actually did that in the midterms. Democrats are still pretending that it's all anti-abortion backlash on CNN, but that's utter hogwash. Abortion just wasn't a major driver for Republican votes like it was for Democrat votes. Similarly, a lot of Republican hopes were, and are, placed on crime being a major factor in gaining Democratic votes, but they only just gain Republican votes.
So, the result isn't too surprising if you see:
Continuing Democratic mail-in fraud efforts
Establishment Republicans heavily focusing on abortion to drive Democratic votes
Populist Republicans heavily focusing on crime, which converts zero Democratic votes
Establishment Republicans intentionally mis-spending money on defeating MAGA candidates
Democrats exploiting abortion to fundraise and hyper-focus their money
I think this is mostly correct.
Norenia's black-pilling aside: mail-in voter fraud is absolutely the mechanism here. The difference is that RCP just doesn't call it out as explicitly as I am. Mail-in voter fraud is absolutely the big breakwater system in place. It means that each republican candidate probably needs to win by 5-10 points to tie.
Additionally, there are Democratic mobilizing efforts.
I would actually argue that we have such a partisan conditions right now, that entire issues have no effect on one party, but a massive effect on the other. For Democrats, it's abortion. For Republicans, it's crime.
Democrats are massively influenced by abortion as a topic. Any and all abortion restrictions do activate their base. But it doesn't have an inverse effect for Republicans. Republicans aren't going to show up in droves if abortion limits are made a month earlier. Democrats will treat it as the sole driving factor of the election. To a Republican, killing babies one month sooner does not change the problem. To a Democrat, you are trying to kill the mother.
Republicans, however, are massively influenced by crime as a topic. It's already a steady diet of right-wing media, that is a form of propaganda to emphasize discontent with the current leadership. Republicans absolutely demand law, order, and justice. Democrats explicitly don't care about crime. The New York Governor's race is damning in this. The Dem candidate pretended crime didn't exist. To this day, the first propaganda weapon of the Democrats against crime is to pretend it doesn't exist. The Mayor of London once said that Terrorism is part and parcel to living in a big city, and that attitude is reflected everywhere in Democratic circles. So long as the donor class doesn't feel the effects of high crime, the Democratic lower class have simply embraced it. They are totally uneffected by piles of shit in the street, needles everywhere, and rampant violence. You've got to understand that they literally don't care, and the criminality and degeneracy has been totally normalized to them. The fact that Lee Zeldin got 85% of the hasidic jewish vote in New York city is because the community was targeted, explicitly, by crime and tyranny. As a voting bloc, they flipped because of crime targeting them. However, huge swathes of the rest of New York City simply do not mind the levels of crime they are experiencing. Look at the responses we see from even wealthy Leftists who are robbed or mugged. Crime is normal to them, and as such it doesn't drive responses.
Well, both sides actually did that in the midterms. Democrats are still pretending that it's all anti-abortion backlash on CNN, but that's utter hogwash. Abortion just wasn't a major driver for Republican votes like it was for Democrat votes. Similarly, a lot of Republican hopes were, and are, placed on crime being a major factor in gaining Democratic votes, but they only just gain Republican votes.
So, the result isn't too surprising if you see: