The end results of this recent midterm are worse than 2020 in terms of permanent consequences.
I don't think anyone tuned into elections even knew about this horrific proposal.
The GOP's potential electoral path to 270 electoral votes in 2024 continues to shrink.
Based on Trump's final results in 2020: The GOP was only able to secure 232. They would need another 38 electoral votes.
MI is now just completely gone. That is 15 electoral votes lost.
The GOP candidate in 2024 likely doesn't have a great chance at winning PA after Shapiro became governor and Oz lost to Fetterman of all people by 4 points.
PA is 19 electoral votes.
AZ, WI and GA still looks very iffy. AZ is 11 electoral votes, GA is 16 electoral votes and WI is 10 electoral votes.
NV is a mass mail in ballot state so that will be a tough hurdle to cross. NV is 6 electoral votes.
NH is fucking hopeless. NH is 4 electoral votes.
Getting AZ, GA and WI in 2024 results in a 269-269 tie where the House decides the President.
Losing Michigan permanently hurts a lot.
Getting all of AZ, GA, WI and NV now looks to be the only feasible path for over 270 in 2024.
That’s why we gotta make sure Texas doesn’t go purple or blue. I don’t get GA. They vote for Republicans for governor yet they vote for these moronic Dems for senator and voted for Biden
The Atlanta Megalopolis is responsible for the way GA goes electorally--it is a hive of blue-haired leftist hipsters, knuckle-dragging soul brothers and their Lizzo-like old ladies.
The mouth-breathing rednecks in the boonies evidently can't be bothered to vote after getting off the late shift at the mill or the WAWA or the Waffle House on Exit 79.
The problem is that GA suburb voters are extremely squishy right leaning voters who just completely hate Trump for being offensive to their sensibilities.
Kemp is able to win GA governor because he is a mix of old style conservatism and a mix of some new MAGA policies.
Walker's proximity to Trump really hurts him with GA suburb voters.
The clownish GA suburbs and Stacy Abram's ballot machine led to Trump losing GA in 2020.
I am atleast happy that the GOP won all the statewide races in Texas by a double digit margin this year. Texas was trending blue in 2016, 2018 and 2020 cycles. We seem to have regressed some of that trend this cycle.
Abbott beat Beto by 11 points which is excellent. Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton won by 10 and 9.5 points respectively which exceeded my expectation.
It is clear that the Texas suburbs in places like Tarrant just really hated Cruz and Trump when you look at their small winning margins versus everyone else who won in Texas.
We can keep Texas red at the state level for years by smartly nominating conservative candidates who aren't optically horrific to suburbs like Trump or Cruz.
Tarrant County even flipped back to red this cycle.
Tim O'Hare the county judge who won did a good job blending old school conservatism and MAGA.
We need fusionist candidates to win Texas and Georgia it seems.
Agreed. I think I told you before but I’m in Tarrant county and I think it’s the last red leaning big city area. What stopped the blue trend were the Hispanics shifting red right?
I talk about Tarrant a lot because I also am in Tarrant county!
What stopped the blue trend in Texas this year was mainly right leaning White college educated suburbanites coming back to GOP in places like Tarrant/Denton/Collin and even in Harris county and Hispanics shifted right slightly.
Hispanics didn't shift right in Texas this cycle as much as I was really hoping for.
It seems Beto being at the top of the ticket actually helped with Dems retaining a large share of the Hispanic vote.
Beto is actually Irish and still many Hispanics in Texas think he is one of them.
You're far more optimistic than I am. WI is the only state on that list that isn't permanently lost IME. AZ elected a Dem who will permanently entrench her power in that state, and GA has Dem stooges in the GOP that rubber stamp the Dem's fraudulent wins there. I suspect Reid's fraud machine is alive and well in NV. Just wait for the ballots they need to magically appear in that Senate race. It's over. Violence is the only way out.
Republicans won every statewide race this year in Georgia besides Walker in senate race.
Yes, because they're Dem plants so the fraudsters let them win. It's the Kemp/Raffensperger Faustian bargain. They're not interested in doing anything for our side. They're no different than the "Libertarian" traitors. They belong in a ditch. The Senate race is the only one that matters in Georgia, and they just completely fucked us on it.
Thanks for the info on AZ and NV though. It appears the situation there isn't as hopeless as I thought.
Well the Trump endorsed Lt governor somehow won in Georgia.
I don't think GA is fully gone yet in 2024 Presidential.
The Georgia suburbs especially hate Trump and Walker is also not a good fit either for the Georgia suburbs sadly making it too easy for Dems to tilt the scales in their favor with mail in ballot fraud.
My best guess is that GA in 2024 is maybe possible for a Republican like DeSantis or Youngkin if they play their cards right.
However GA is trending horribly for Republicans so it most likely won't be on the table to even consider in 2028.
Yes, we knew about the proposal. Yes, we drove ourselves insane trying to explain it to our normie relatives. In the end, MI is determined by the metro area and Grand Rapids to a lesser extent.
If GR sides with the rural areas, the vote can outweigh the metro. But that doesn't happen often.
Trump is the most popular candidate alive today. If he can’t win, no one with his policies will ever win either. If DeSantis were to somehow get the nomination over Trump (doubtful), and he won, it’d be because he was allowed to win and is controlled opposition. I think people STILL don’t realize the extent the uniparty has control over our elections.
To the extent Trump’s 2022 picks are “losing” is largely because the GOP isn’t backing his approved candidates with funding like they should, and the fact that key swing states such as MI as the OP mentioned are becoming/have become unwinnable due to the system of gaming mail-in ballots and other fraudulent schemes borne out of the pandemic that are quickly becoming cemented into law. Not because the support for Trump and his candidates aren’t there. Trump received the highest amount of votes in history in 2020 excluding Biden’s unexplainable 81 million to beat him.
As someone who has been supporting what DeSantis has been doing the last 4 years since Trump dragged him across the finish line in 2018, I find his 20 point win and the sudden media narrative blitz over the last few days that he is the anointed one and we should all just move away from loser Trump to be very suspect.
And, without evaluating his actual record on achieving policies particularly in a durable way.
He didn’t bring us into any new wars. He withdrew us from TPP. He fostered the Abraham Accords and has brought a level of peace to the Middle East that we haven’t seen in decades. He also showed it is possible to become energy independent, and that our economy can grow leaps and bounds with the right regulatory policy. Those are all durable, lasting impacts.
CRT and gender bullshit flourished within the federal agencies (including the military) under Trump. Much of it spurred by Trumps own unpopularity. He has serious administrative deficiencies.
Not sure where you’re getting this from. Trump literally banned CRT in all federal agencies while he was president before Biden undid the ban. And to blame CRT on Trump is quite the reach. I was reading about CRT in my law school textbooks being a “lense for statutory interpretation” nearly a decade ago. It existed and was on the rise during Obama’s admin. I’m also not sure what more you can expect from a guy who was a complete outsider to DC and was completely surrounded by swamp creatures who would lie to his face and then undermine him. He had generals lying to him about troop numbers in Syria, for fucks sake.
He is also hard-capped in popularity with basically everyone else at a very low number (~40%) that is not sufficient to mandate real change and probably not even win an election. To insert some facts that directly refute your statement, his current net unfavorable of -12 is below Biden.
Not true. His popularity is still rising because there are many people still awakening to the corruption of our uniparty government. That’s why he received 10+ million more votes than he did in 2016. His popularity was increasing, and there is no indication of a cap. Do you still actually rely on polls as an actual barometer of public sentiment? In no reality is he actually more unpopular than Biden.
And, an important lesson from this election is that 2020 election shit is incredibly unpopular -- which anyone with common sense could already see.
You don’t get it, do you? The reason this election went the way it did is because the issues in 2020 were not addressed. Anyone with common sense should realize a broken system will remain broken until it is fixed. You even admit that fraud may have caused Trump’s loss in 2020. This narrative that talking about our election issues is unpopular is incredibly short-sighted and dangerous. Until the issues are fixed, we will continue to lose. Understand?
Tell me how Trump wins 2024.
See above. He doesn’t unless we remove mail in ballots and go back to same day vote tabulating. No one does. If they do, they were allowed to under the current election system. That’s why if DeSantis is actually MAGA and America First, he would lose too.
Come on with this shit. This is purely an artifact of historic voter participation. Democrats and stupid Republicans changed voting drastically for the 2020 election such that everyone had a ballot.
To explain away Biden’s unprecedented vote totals because “everyone had a ballot” is naive. Trump out performed Biden across the country except for a handful of counties that were heavily (D) controlled in which Biden received vote totals Obama at his prime couldn’t dream to approach. Trump won 18 out of 19 bellwether counties. By your logic, Biden should have at least been competitive and won more of those counties. Why did muh more ballots only seem to make an impact in Wayne, Maricopa, Fulton, Philadelphia, Allegheny, and a few other (D) entrenched counties?
My point is this. Trump is still the most popular candidate, and neither he nor any other candidate that is earnest in enacting similar policies is ever going to win without significant changes to our elections. This push to DeSantis is suspect given the media platforms pushing him now. Even the Guardian had an article recently shitting on Trump and praising DeSantis. Look at the RINO money behind DeSantis. They seem to be trying to use him to suffocate and divide MAGA support and provide a controlled alternative to clueless Trump supporters that they believe they can control and who will not upend their globalist gravy train.
You have to take into account the reapportionment of house seats. Compared to 2020, there’s a net +3 EC votes for red states and net -3 EC votes for blue states. (I’m calling PA a blue state for these purposes.)
The end results of this recent midterm are worse than 2020 in terms of permanent consequences.
I don't think anyone tuned into elections even knew about this horrific proposal.
The GOP's potential electoral path to 270 electoral votes in 2024 continues to shrink.
Based on Trump's final results in 2020: The GOP was only able to secure 232. They would need another 38 electoral votes.
MI is now just completely gone. That is 15 electoral votes lost.
The GOP candidate in 2024 likely doesn't have a great chance at winning PA after Shapiro became governor and Oz lost to Fetterman of all people by 4 points.
PA is 19 electoral votes.
AZ, WI and GA still looks very iffy. AZ is 11 electoral votes, GA is 16 electoral votes and WI is 10 electoral votes.
NV is a mass mail in ballot state so that will be a tough hurdle to cross. NV is 6 electoral votes.
NH is fucking hopeless. NH is 4 electoral votes.
Getting AZ, GA and WI in 2024 results in a 269-269 tie where the House decides the President.
Losing Michigan permanently hurts a lot.
Getting all of AZ, GA, WI and NV now looks to be the only feasible path for over 270 in 2024.
That’s why we gotta make sure Texas doesn’t go purple or blue. I don’t get GA. They vote for Republicans for governor yet they vote for these moronic Dems for senator and voted for Biden
The Atlanta Megalopolis is responsible for the way GA goes electorally--it is a hive of blue-haired leftist hipsters, knuckle-dragging soul brothers and their Lizzo-like old ladies.
The mouth-breathing rednecks in the boonies evidently can't be bothered to vote after getting off the late shift at the mill or the WAWA or the Waffle House on Exit 79.
The problem is that GA suburb voters are extremely squishy right leaning voters who just completely hate Trump for being offensive to their sensibilities.
Kemp is able to win GA governor because he is a mix of old style conservatism and a mix of some new MAGA policies.
Walker's proximity to Trump really hurts him with GA suburb voters.
The clownish GA suburbs and Stacy Abram's ballot machine led to Trump losing GA in 2020.
I am atleast happy that the GOP won all the statewide races in Texas by a double digit margin this year. Texas was trending blue in 2016, 2018 and 2020 cycles. We seem to have regressed some of that trend this cycle.
Abbott beat Beto by 11 points which is excellent. Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton won by 10 and 9.5 points respectively which exceeded my expectation.
It is clear that the Texas suburbs in places like Tarrant just really hated Cruz and Trump when you look at their small winning margins versus everyone else who won in Texas.
We can keep Texas red at the state level for years by smartly nominating conservative candidates who aren't optically horrific to suburbs like Trump or Cruz.
Tarrant County even flipped back to red this cycle.
Tim O'Hare the county judge who won did a good job blending old school conservatism and MAGA.
We need fusionist candidates to win Texas and Georgia it seems.
Agreed. I think I told you before but I’m in Tarrant county and I think it’s the last red leaning big city area. What stopped the blue trend were the Hispanics shifting red right?
I talk about Tarrant a lot because I also am in Tarrant county!
What stopped the blue trend in Texas this year was mainly right leaning White college educated suburbanites coming back to GOP in places like Tarrant/Denton/Collin and even in Harris county and Hispanics shifted right slightly.
Hispanics didn't shift right in Texas this cycle as much as I was really hoping for.
It seems Beto being at the top of the ticket actually helped with Dems retaining a large share of the Hispanic vote.
Beto is actually Irish and still many Hispanics in Texas think he is one of them.
The Atlanta machine cheats, duh.
I guess I was confused because for years even with Atlanta it was a reliable red state. I do know you have people moving in
You're far more optimistic than I am. WI is the only state on that list that isn't permanently lost IME. AZ elected a Dem who will permanently entrench her power in that state, and GA has Dem stooges in the GOP that rubber stamp the Dem's fraudulent wins there. I suspect Reid's fraud machine is alive and well in NV. Just wait for the ballots they need to magically appear in that Senate race. It's over. Violence is the only way out.
Lake still has a decent chance to win AZ governor.
Republicans won every statewide race this year in Georgia besides Walker in senate race.
Lombardo is still projected to win governor narrowly in Nevada despite the mail in ballots remaining.
Yes, because they're Dem plants so the fraudsters let them win. It's the Kemp/Raffensperger Faustian bargain. They're not interested in doing anything for our side. They're no different than the "Libertarian" traitors. They belong in a ditch. The Senate race is the only one that matters in Georgia, and they just completely fucked us on it.
Thanks for the info on AZ and NV though. It appears the situation there isn't as hopeless as I thought.
Well the Trump endorsed Lt governor somehow won in Georgia.
I don't think GA is fully gone yet in 2024 Presidential.
The Georgia suburbs especially hate Trump and Walker is also not a good fit either for the Georgia suburbs sadly making it too easy for Dems to tilt the scales in their favor with mail in ballot fraud.
My best guess is that GA in 2024 is maybe possible for a Republican like DeSantis or Youngkin if they play their cards right.
However GA is trending horribly for Republicans so it most likely won't be on the table to even consider in 2028.
Yes, we knew about the proposal. Yes, we drove ourselves insane trying to explain it to our normie relatives. In the end, MI is determined by the metro area and Grand Rapids to a lesser extent.
If GR sides with the rural areas, the vote can outweigh the metro. But that doesn't happen often.
Trump is the most popular candidate alive today. If he can’t win, no one with his policies will ever win either. If DeSantis were to somehow get the nomination over Trump (doubtful), and he won, it’d be because he was allowed to win and is controlled opposition. I think people STILL don’t realize the extent the uniparty has control over our elections.
To the extent Trump’s 2022 picks are “losing” is largely because the GOP isn’t backing his approved candidates with funding like they should, and the fact that key swing states such as MI as the OP mentioned are becoming/have become unwinnable due to the system of gaming mail-in ballots and other fraudulent schemes borne out of the pandemic that are quickly becoming cemented into law. Not because the support for Trump and his candidates aren’t there. Trump received the highest amount of votes in history in 2020 excluding Biden’s unexplainable 81 million to beat him.
As someone who has been supporting what DeSantis has been doing the last 4 years since Trump dragged him across the finish line in 2018, I find his 20 point win and the sudden media narrative blitz over the last few days that he is the anointed one and we should all just move away from loser Trump to be very suspect.
I’ll try to address some of your points.
He didn’t bring us into any new wars. He withdrew us from TPP. He fostered the Abraham Accords and has brought a level of peace to the Middle East that we haven’t seen in decades. He also showed it is possible to become energy independent, and that our economy can grow leaps and bounds with the right regulatory policy. Those are all durable, lasting impacts.
Not sure where you’re getting this from. Trump literally banned CRT in all federal agencies while he was president before Biden undid the ban. And to blame CRT on Trump is quite the reach. I was reading about CRT in my law school textbooks being a “lense for statutory interpretation” nearly a decade ago. It existed and was on the rise during Obama’s admin. I’m also not sure what more you can expect from a guy who was a complete outsider to DC and was completely surrounded by swamp creatures who would lie to his face and then undermine him. He had generals lying to him about troop numbers in Syria, for fucks sake.
Not true. His popularity is still rising because there are many people still awakening to the corruption of our uniparty government. That’s why he received 10+ million more votes than he did in 2016. His popularity was increasing, and there is no indication of a cap. Do you still actually rely on polls as an actual barometer of public sentiment? In no reality is he actually more unpopular than Biden.
You don’t get it, do you? The reason this election went the way it did is because the issues in 2020 were not addressed. Anyone with common sense should realize a broken system will remain broken until it is fixed. You even admit that fraud may have caused Trump’s loss in 2020. This narrative that talking about our election issues is unpopular is incredibly short-sighted and dangerous. Until the issues are fixed, we will continue to lose. Understand?
See above. He doesn’t unless we remove mail in ballots and go back to same day vote tabulating. No one does. If they do, they were allowed to under the current election system. That’s why if DeSantis is actually MAGA and America First, he would lose too.
To explain away Biden’s unprecedented vote totals because “everyone had a ballot” is naive. Trump out performed Biden across the country except for a handful of counties that were heavily (D) controlled in which Biden received vote totals Obama at his prime couldn’t dream to approach. Trump won 18 out of 19 bellwether counties. By your logic, Biden should have at least been competitive and won more of those counties. Why did muh more ballots only seem to make an impact in Wayne, Maricopa, Fulton, Philadelphia, Allegheny, and a few other (D) entrenched counties?
My point is this. Trump is still the most popular candidate, and neither he nor any other candidate that is earnest in enacting similar policies is ever going to win without significant changes to our elections. This push to DeSantis is suspect given the media platforms pushing him now. Even the Guardian had an article recently shitting on Trump and praising DeSantis. Look at the RINO money behind DeSantis. They seem to be trying to use him to suffocate and divide MAGA support and provide a controlled alternative to clueless Trump supporters that they believe they can control and who will not upend their globalist gravy train.
You have to take into account the reapportionment of house seats. Compared to 2020, there’s a net +3 EC votes for red states and net -3 EC votes for blue states. (I’m calling PA a blue state for these purposes.)
I used the new electoral vote values for my analysis.