Republicans may still win it this election
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My personal prediction is that the Republicans win anywhere from 15-30 seats in the house and will absolutely flip it red.
My personal prediction for the Senate is a net gain of anywhere from 1-3 Senate seats.
Out of the swing state senate races my guess is that Oz in PA and Laxalt in NV will win even if it is by narrow margins.
I think the race between Warnock and Walker in GA is a pure tossup and the race between Mark Kelly and Blake Masters in AZ is a pure tossup.
I think JD Vance in OH, Ted Budd in NC, Ron Johnson in WI and Marco Rubio in FL will all win by decently high margins(anywhere from +4 to + 8)
I think the Republicans will ultimately take back both the House and the Senate.
R will retake the house easily, it's just a question of how big the margin will be.
The Senate is harder because even though R sentiment is good, a few of the R candidates are fucking garbage, like Walker and Oz. They still MIGHT win but holy shit what a way to throw away a big advantage.
And we have Trump to thank for the bad candidates since he shilled hard for them in the primaries and then when they started losing in the polls he distanced himself.
Oz will clutch it out against Fetterman. I am much more bullish on Oz recently.
Walker is in a pure toss up race against Warnock atm. Walker did fine in the debate and likely assuaged the concerns of squishy center right voters in the Atlanta suburbs.
If Kemp wins >55 percent of the vote for governor against Abrams, his coat-tails should carry Walker to victory without a runoff election.
I think the Rs will ultimately take the Senate this year, the only question is by how many seats.
I am guessing anywhere from a net gain of 1 Senate seat to 3 Senate seats.
I hope so. Fetterman is a total fake-working-class-grifter and stroked the fuck out.
Yes I heard he closed the gap but he's been just one scandal after the next. I hope he wins, but God damn the man isn't remotely what a "vetted" candidate should look like. I get that the Right wants "outsiders" but we need to invest in an operation cultivating new candidates then.
Yes that should help.
538 has them set to lose but I think if we get a bigger red wave than predicted, which should be pretty obvious by now, there should be at least 1 or 2 upset wins and we finally get the Senate.
The Senate is more important than the House since it controls the all-important judicial nominees and executive appointments.
Nate Silver and 538 are trash.
They include blatant fake polls from Lincoln project scum like the CenterStreet PAC into their polling averages and use their Dem inflated polling averages to say Dems are very favored for the Senate.
Nonsense.
I think Republicans likely win NV and PA getting us to 51 Senate seats and thus gain control of the Senate.
AZ and GA Senate remain pure tossups that Rs can hopefully win.