The likelihood of Taiwan falling to the PRC is absolutely zero.
The straits would run red with blood and burning kerosene. Do you know how many DPICM rounds the RoC has for their M270's? How many hardened, silo launched antiship missiles they have?
It's a lot. It's a disgusting lot. Enough to burn the entire PRC navy ten times over.
Y'know that scene in Evangelion when all those massed launchers are firing off hammering an angel with a billion dollars worth of missiles? It'd be like that.
An attempt to take Taiwan by force would turn a hundred miles of water into a graveyard for ten million men. It cannot be done. ESPECIALLY now that they have GUIDED 155 mm artillery rounds. That's like hitting ships with WW1 secondary battery guns from high angles with the precision of a missile. Ships simply aren't built with armor against large AP rounds anymore, especially not China's cheapo fleet.
Overt feminists make up about 10% of the population, by UK demographical reports. And yet, look at the level of top-level alterations, overton shifts, and corruptions that have occurred.
25% is a huge excess amount to be able to socially collapse a country for a soft power invasion.
Okay so Taiwanese politics are between the DPP and the KMT.
The KMT was in charge since the civil war, and it's supporters are old people. They were supportive of some ties with China. Because of this, their support collapsed among young people.
The DPP is the new top dog.
They are woke as fuck. But also nationalist as fuck. Their supporters are young, progressive, pro-America and extremely anti-China.
Basically, the DPP is the Democratic party with a MAGA foreign policy, and the KMT are literal Rinocons (and proud of it). That pro-China 25% are old KMT voters who remember 90's China.
You're assuming US gets involved, correct? I doubt it - the value of Taiwan to US is highly exaggerated and public support for a draft for it would be non-existent (a bit like public support for Biden.)
Remember that HK just handed over power, there was no need to take it by force. They just made the leader an offer to prop up their economy.
An attack by the PRC against the RoC would be the first time in history where a land army defeats a navy with just artillery. And it'd be as one-sided as the Battle of Surigao Strait.
You gotta understand TI, we have not seen a forced amphibious assault against hardened, dug in defenses in 70 years. If the PRC is dumb enough to try it they'll learn why Schwarzkopf made a FEINT amphibious assault against Iraq instead of a real one. 'Cuz with the artillery the world has now it would be a meat grinder for anyone trying it.
You just can't envision it because you've never seen a fight where a SINGLE land fired artillery shell from a traditional howitzer has a better than 50/50 chance of hitting a landing ship and killing everyone aboard, five miles offshore. That's the world of war we live in today. We just haven't seen a fight where that sort of capacity has been demonstrated, because we've been shooting goat herding terrorists for twenty years.
This implies a level of competence in Taiwan that might not exist. Guided weapons aren't magic, they still need to lock on. They'll still be fired at by naval vessels. They're still vulnerable from the air. A naval invasion in the modern era hasn't been tried before, but that doesn't mean it's not possible.
But anyone who believes that China could invade Taiwan as easily as Germany invaded Czechoslovakia is mistaken. They have to cross a hundred miles of ocean, being in range of the Hsiung Feng III the whole way, MLRS rockets half the way, and guided Paladin fire the last third.
The sheer volume of guided anti-ship fire they'll soak up trying to cross that water will be like nothing that has been seen in the history of war ever.
They have the capacity, but that would be an unconditional failure. If the CCP nukes Taiwan during an expansionist war they started, not only do they not achieve their strategic goal of capturing Taiwan and reuniting China under their boot, it means that everyone in the world has a free pass and a duty to nuke the CCP back.
I take your reducto ad nukem as an admission that, on reflection, yes, an amphibious assault against a modern enemy with enormous quantities of guided weaponry would be a slaughter. I just wish you were TI1.
TI.....
The likelihood of Taiwan falling to the PRC is absolutely zero.
The straits would run red with blood and burning kerosene. Do you know how many DPICM rounds the RoC has for their M270's? How many hardened, silo launched antiship missiles they have?
It's a lot. It's a disgusting lot. Enough to burn the entire PRC navy ten times over.
Y'know that scene in Evangelion when all those massed launchers are firing off hammering an angel with a billion dollars worth of missiles? It'd be like that.
An attempt to take Taiwan by force would turn a hundred miles of water into a graveyard for ten million men. It cannot be done. ESPECIALLY now that they have GUIDED 155 mm artillery rounds. That's like hitting ships with WW1 secondary battery guns from high angles with the precision of a missile. Ships simply aren't built with armor against large AP rounds anymore, especially not China's cheapo fleet.
Taiwan will be taken with soft power, military threats, and with the help of traitors from the inside.
So that's a no, it won't be taken.
Public opinion in Taiwan is like 75% against reunification, and 2/3rds against closer ties with China of any kind.
But is it the RIGHT 75%?
Overt feminists make up about 10% of the population, by UK demographical reports. And yet, look at the level of top-level alterations, overton shifts, and corruptions that have occurred.
25% is a huge excess amount to be able to socially collapse a country for a soft power invasion.
Yes; well, sort of.
Okay so Taiwanese politics are between the DPP and the KMT.
The KMT was in charge since the civil war, and it's supporters are old people. They were supportive of some ties with China. Because of this, their support collapsed among young people.
The DPP is the new top dog.
They are woke as fuck. But also nationalist as fuck. Their supporters are young, progressive, pro-America and extremely anti-China.
Basically, the DPP is the Democratic party with a MAGA foreign policy, and the KMT are literal Rinocons (and proud of it). That pro-China 25% are old KMT voters who remember 90's China.
You're assuming US gets involved, correct? I doubt it - the value of Taiwan to US is highly exaggerated and public support for a draft for it would be non-existent (a bit like public support for Biden.)
Remember that HK just handed over power, there was no need to take it by force. They just made the leader an offer to prop up their economy.
No, I'm not.
This is capacity they already have.
An attack by the PRC against the RoC would be the first time in history where a land army defeats a navy with just artillery. And it'd be as one-sided as the Battle of Surigao Strait.
You gotta understand TI, we have not seen a forced amphibious assault against hardened, dug in defenses in 70 years. If the PRC is dumb enough to try it they'll learn why Schwarzkopf made a FEINT amphibious assault against Iraq instead of a real one. 'Cuz with the artillery the world has now it would be a meat grinder for anyone trying it.
You just can't envision it because you've never seen a fight where a SINGLE land fired artillery shell from a traditional howitzer has a better than 50/50 chance of hitting a landing ship and killing everyone aboard, five miles offshore. That's the world of war we live in today. We just haven't seen a fight where that sort of capacity has been demonstrated, because we've been shooting goat herding terrorists for twenty years.
This implies a level of competence in Taiwan that might not exist. Guided weapons aren't magic, they still need to lock on. They'll still be fired at by naval vessels. They're still vulnerable from the air. A naval invasion in the modern era hasn't been tried before, but that doesn't mean it's not possible.
This is all true.
But anyone who believes that China could invade Taiwan as easily as Germany invaded Czechoslovakia is mistaken. They have to cross a hundred miles of ocean, being in range of the Hsiung Feng III the whole way, MLRS rockets half the way, and guided Paladin fire the last third.
The sheer volume of guided anti-ship fire they'll soak up trying to cross that water will be like nothing that has been seen in the history of war ever.
Does the PRC have nukes? Would the PRC nuke the RoC?
They have the capacity, but that would be an unconditional failure. If the CCP nukes Taiwan during an expansionist war they started, not only do they not achieve their strategic goal of capturing Taiwan and reuniting China under their boot, it means that everyone in the world has a free pass and a duty to nuke the CCP back.
I doubt it. They might threaten to, but it would kind of defeat the purpose of conquering them.
I take your reducto ad nukem as an admission that, on reflection, yes, an amphibious assault against a modern enemy with enormous quantities of guided weaponry would be a slaughter. I just wish you were TI1.