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20
Is Iran or the US winning the missile war? (archive.is)
posted 91 days ago by The_Shadow_of_Intent 91 days ago by The_Shadow_of_Intent +20 / -0
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▲ 8 ▼
– The_Shadow_of_Intent [S] 8 points 91 days ago +8 / -0

Highlights:

Indeed, over the past two nights, Iranian ballistic missile usage appears to have decreased sharply. The UAE, which has received the brunt of Iranian ballistic missile attacks and has been relatively transparent about the number of missiles launched at its territory, reported 165 ballistic missiles during the first two days. In the subsequent two days, the UAE reported only nine and 12 ballistic missile launches at its territory, respectively.

However, given that the intensity of Iranian ballistic missile attacks appears to have declined sharply, very likely due to TEL attrition, the situation now appears far less alarming. While it may still be premature to dismiss Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities entirely, the Gulf states – with the possible exception of Bahrain, given its comparatively small arsenal – have reason to expect that they can endure the conflict without exhausting their missile interceptors. Even Bahrain will likely remain in a manageable position, assuming continued US support and missile defence deployments on its territory.

TELs are transporter erector-launchers, basically mobile missile launchers. The US is currently destroying as many as possible, and apparently it's having some effect.

As for drones:

Indeed, rather than ballistic missiles, long-range drones have exposed more gaps in the defences of the Gulf states. Neither the Gulf states nor the United States deploy optimised drone interceptor systems in sufficient numbers, relying instead on manned aircraft to intercept incoming Shahed-type drones. Nevertheless, individual drones have repeatedly penetrated their defences and struck military and symbolic targets, including the US embassy in Riyadh. Overall, this does not reflect well on US and allied militaries.

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▲ 22 ▼
– horstshort 22 points 91 days ago +22 / -0

Uploading any footage of attacks or the aftermath of attacks is by now illegal in every single Gulf state. Same goes for Israel. So knowing what's actually happening is quite difficult unless you have direct access to military intelligence. And when you do you're most likely not going to paint a picture that isn't in favor of the side you're on.

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▲ 2 ▼
– The_Shadow_of_Intent [S] 2 points 91 days ago +2 / -0

The figures in the article come from state-level reporting. So perhaps they're already self-censoring at incredible levels, or perhaps they're telling the truth and Iran's ballistic capability is degrading.

It's not hard to believe either outcome for this point. But reality will continue to emerge.

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▲ 16 ▼
– horstshort 16 points 91 days ago +16 / -0

come from state-level reporting

Which is why it is unreliable.

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▲ 1 ▼
– nikgtasa 1 point 91 days ago +1 / -0

when you do you're most likely not going to paint a picture that isn't in favor of the side you're on

Oy vey they're bombing us please send help

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▲ 3 ▼
– ScallionPancake 3 points 91 days ago +3 / -0

That article is some low IQ analysis, probably just pushing more propaganda..

The UAE, which has received the brunt of Iranian ballistic missile attacks and has been relatively transparent about the number of missiles launched at its territory

I'd imagine that israel is the one taking the most punishment, I question this claims accuracy.

However, given that the intensity of Iranian ballistic missile attacks appears to have declined sharply

Assuming the UAE or the article is not lying, just because the UAE is getting hit less doesn't mean overall missile launches are less across the board. Targets and priorities can change.

For example: If the American base and airfields in the UAE are destroyed or abandoned, why would they continue attacking the UAE when they should be changing targets?

have reason to expect that they can endure the conflict without exhausting their missile interceptors.

Missile interceptors have been proven to not work against iran's latest missiles, the ones they do manage to intercept are cheap and old which only serve to cause their enemies to spend millions to stop thousands of dollars worth of junk missiles.

TELs are transporter erector-launchers, basically mobile missile launchers. The US is currently destroying as many as possible, and apparently it's having some effect.

Iran has demonstrated that they have an unknown number of underground fully automated "missile cities", which essentially have missiles launching straight out of small slits in the sand, or mountain ranges. All they need to do is enable the system and it will automatically load, fuel, and launch missiles until deactivated or destroyed.

Also there are a non-insignificant amount of decoy launchers out there, some painted on the ground, others just cardboard cutouts, and trucks without payloads that the US and Israel are wasting time and money bombing.

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▲ 2 ▼
– SocraticMethod1 2 points 91 days ago +2 / -0

I heard though, cannot confirm myself, the Iranians are saying the drones they got from China have been useless.

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▲ 7 ▼
– horstshort 7 points 91 days ago +7 / -0

Ask yourself the following question.

Why would Iran buy Chinese suicide drones if they produce combat tested drones themselves that everyone else is copying?

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▲ 1 ▼
– SocraticMethod1 1 point 91 days ago +1 / -0

I'm just saying what I heard, might've been Iran wanted a huge stockpile of drones so got a few from China to see if theirs was any good if their own production was hit.

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▲ 5 ▼
– horstshort 5 points 91 days ago +5 / -0

They have a huge stockpile of drones. They don't need Chinese drones. I read that headline too and filed it under propaganda bullshit. Maybe they got some Chinese drones to test and deemed them terrible. That's possible but they are most definitely irrelevant militarily. Iran is most definitely not dumb enough to rely on imports for this war.

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... continue reading thread?
▲ 1 ▼
– Grumman 1 point 91 days ago +1 / -0

Iran probably wants more drones than they can build.

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▲ 2 ▼
– tay7 2 points 91 days ago +2 / -0

It's their HQ 9 air defense missiles that suck, not drones. Either China gave them export quality crap or they really do suck.

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