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49
Timeline is nearly complete (twitter.com)
posted 363 days ago by Ahaus667 363 days ago by Ahaus667 +49 / -0
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– AntonioOfVenice 6 points 363 days ago +6 / -0

If Iran was getting nuclear material (which I can't say for sure) that might be causus belli.

Nope. It's not an act of war. It might be illegal under the NPT, which they have voluntarily signed, but that provides for appropriate remedies in such cases. Do you really think anyone would sign such a treaty if any violation would be "we'll bomb you"?

Alternatively, we could also say the causes belli was that Iran basically sponsored October 7th

No proof is provided for that, nor was America the target of October 7th, nor does America have any alliances requiring it to do that.

By that standard, Russia is free to attack European countries that provide weapons for fake Ukraine.

Let's not be Trump cultists. Let's call out wrong where wrong exists. There is zero justification for this outrage. Planning a meeting, having a rogue state strike them 2 days before, and then joining in? The world already knows of American treachery, but this makes the Japanese at Pearl Harbor look good. Worse than treachery in international affairs (which isn't exactly common, as you can see in Mearsheimer), it's a Shakespearean betrayal of his own base, whom he assured for years that war with Iran is bad, regime change is bad, foreign interference is bad - only to follow the wishes of the people who bribed him.

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▲ 2 ▼
– Gizortnik 2 points 363 days ago +2 / -0

Yeah, I guess when I said "causus belli" I was really saying it was Israel's causus belli more than the US's.

We can say that it's not an act of war to get nuclear weapons, but Israel would expect to be the primary target of those weapons, or it would at lease reduce the likelihood of their strike capability against Iran, which is all that any power needs to justify an attack. Not saying it's legal. In fact I'm saying that international law is basically a fiction developed among coalitions.

By that standard, Russia is free to attack European countries that provide weapons for fake Ukraine.

Well.... normally the answer is yes. The issue is that Russia doesn't want to expand the war to NATO, and NATO does. Same reason we didn't attack China or the USSR for helping either North Korea or North Vietnam.

This is not worse than Pearl Harbor. Frankly, I don't think there's any question that Iran was supportive of the attack on October 7th. Something as bad as Pearl Harbor would be like Israel bombing us.

More than anything, this looks like Israel finalizing an end to their war, but they are, for some reason, wanting the US to take the final step of a ground invasion and regime change which will obviously fail.

I don't think he's been bribed, I think he genuinely doesn't want Iran to get nukes because he's a boomer that opposes the ayatollah. The issue is that Israel seemed to plan to evoke a US invasion of Iran, and that's a very stupid step.

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▲ 3 ▼
– AntonioOfVenice 3 points 363 days ago +3 / -0

Yeah, I guess when I said "causus belli" I was really saying it was Israel's causus belli more than the US's.

I'm not clear on whether or not an attack 1.5 years ago not by Iran would justify a coup de maine attack today.

We can say that it's not an act of war to get nuclear weapons, but Israel would expect to be the primary target of those weapons, or it would at lease reduce the likelihood of their strike capability against Iran, which is all that any power needs to justify an attack. Not saying it's legal. In fact I'm saying that international law is basically a fiction developed among coalitions.

Of course, but why are we then discussing this at all? I'm sure Hamas thought that October 7 was justified, and Hitler thought that attacking Judeo-Bolshevist subhumans was justified, and so on.

The issue is that Russia doesn't want to expand the war to NATO, and NATO does.

Not even NATO is that stupid.

This is not worse than Pearl Harbor. Frankly, I don't think there's any question that Iran was supportive of the attack on October 7th. Something as bad as Pearl Harbor would be like Israel bombing us.

That makes little sense. Or is this a reference to that USS Liberty thing? This would be as bad as Pearl Harbor if the US showed itself willing to lift the oil embargo, and to forestall an agreement and to make war, the Japanese attacked a few days before the next meeting.

I don't think he's been bribed, I think he genuinely doesn't want Iran to get nukes

He's been saying he's against "war with Iran" for years. Now he says he doesn't care what his own DNI says. He's making Bush look good. At least he had the decency to create a campaign built on lies, but actually manipulated intelligence. Trump will just use lies contradicted by his own intelligence agencies to justify a war of aggression.

The issue is that Israel seemed to plan to evoke a US invasion of Iran, and that's a very stupid step.

And Trump is falling for it? Like that old Duma deputy said: is this stupidity, or is this treason?

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▲ 1 ▼
– Gizortnik 1 point 362 days ago +1 / -0

Not even NATO is that stupid.

Nah, NATO was absolutely that stupid because they wanted a full-scale land war with Russia. I honestly believe that Biden would have preferred a nuclear exchange because it would have killed so many fly-over Americans. Genuinely, the biggest reason for a war with Iran isn't just a dead MAGA movement, but dead "MAGAtts". The more dead populists, rightists, conservatives, and patriots in a war, the better. If that number climbs well past 10 million American dead, there's no downside.

He's been saying he's against "war with Iran" for years. Now he says he doesn't care what his own DNI says. He's making Bush look good. At least he had the decency to create a campaign built on lies, but actually manipulated intelligence. Trump will just use lies contradicted by his own intelligence agencies to justify a war of aggression.

If Tulsi and Trump were on wildly different positions on this, I think she'd already be gone. I don't know what they are all seeing right now.

And Trump is falling for it? Like that old Duma deputy said: is this stupidity, or is this treason?

I think Trump is manipulating events using Twitter and social media as a weapon. Someone is telling him to sound hard as fuck. I don't know for sure that this isn't a stunt to push Iran to the table. I'm not clear that Trump has fallen for anything yet. I don't believe "Bibi" for a second about how close America was for everything. I also don't believe Trump's posturing and saber rattling. I don't think that Trump's actually planning on an invasion, but I think he wants to scare the shit out of Iran to think he is.

I think I'd feel more comfortable if I knew what the situation among the diplomatic corps actually was right now. I do think Israel wants a full scale invasion, and I think the Neo-cons do to. I'm not sure that Trump does.

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