I know theres a lot of "it was the joos!" Out there but hear me out. This one lines up nicely.
Background - Russia has long propped up the Iranian regime as a counter to US/Israel in the region.
Premise - Israel had to neutralize Russias long range strike capabilities before risking a war on Iran.
Tactics - both attacks used infiltration and local drone assembly/attacks. Both totally novel and never seen before in close succession. Timng and tactics indicate the same origin.
Outcome - remaining capabilities moved to far east. Southbound ordinance would have to cross China, which is diplomatically touchy. Reduces but doesn't remove threat to Ukraine.
QED
The first shot of the Israeli/Iran conflict was at most recent, October 7th. But frankly, we can go back to the fall of the Shah of Iran.
I still find it weird that a country with the kind of intelligence and surveillance systems in place like Israel does (supposedly they can detect a bird landing on a surface from a mile away) was unable to detect a bunch of goat fuckers gliding in to a music concert like the start of a PUBG/Fortnight game.
It might have to do with the fact that the concert was relocated two days before it started, but you'd think that would disrupt the durkah-durkahs (that term predates South Park and Team America using it) more than Israeli super-spy systems.
I don't know man, I just can't square it in my head. I just know it's a cluster fuck and we need to stop being involved in it, and I'm safe in the knowledge I'll never have to go again. I also don't want others to have to for BS reasons.
I definitely accept that inability-to-square, and while it's clear that Israel as good intelligence, I do wonder if they were just arrogant. It isn't the first time Israel got cocky and paid dearly for it. Not to mention that in the west we get a lot of Israeli propaganda that will try to make the Mossad look more competent than they are.
I could easily imagine "Hamas can't do shit to us" or "Even if Hamas does shit to us, we'll beat them back in no time" being uttered by very important people at exactly the wrong time and place.
Based and scholar-pilled.
Thanks, that's kind of you. Honestly, the ME is one giant power-struggle between Syria, Egypt, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and Israel with different powers gaining and losing influence at different times for different reasons. It's a fascinating read, but you basically have to understand all of it to understand any of it.
Iran's Cold War with Saudi Arabia and Israel has never been properly addressed in west. We think way too simply about all these relationships with these countries.
And of course all the way back to Constantinople as well. Most don't even consider the Holy Roman Empire.
Why do you think the USG was backing a Saudi war on Yemen which has killed some hundreds of thousands of people?
For exactly that reason. The Yemeni rebels were Iranian backed, the Saudis went in to try and shut that shit down. The US had no problem selling weapons to the Saudis to kill and disrupt Iranian irregular warfare efforts.