I know theres a lot of "it was the joos!" Out there but hear me out. This one lines up nicely.
Background - Russia has long propped up the Iranian regime as a counter to US/Israel in the region.
Premise - Israel had to neutralize Russias long range strike capabilities before risking a war on Iran.
Tactics - both attacks used infiltration and local drone assembly/attacks. Both totally novel and never seen before in close succession. Timng and tactics indicate the same origin.
Outcome - remaining capabilities moved to far east. Southbound ordinance would have to cross China, which is diplomatically touchy. Reduces but doesn't remove threat to Ukraine.
QED
The problem with this theory is that the planes only represent one part of Russia's nuclear triad. Even then, Russia still has planes capable of carrying nuclear weapons. By Ukraine's own (inflated) assessment they only knocked out 43% of their nuclear bombers. Reality is probably half that.
They're more than just nuclear though. They have been used extensively for conventional ordinance, which is more likely for defending allies.
I think they'd be much more likely to use SU 34s and the like to defend their allies rather than those old elephants.
That strike was another example of Ukraine's asymetric warfare. They can't win on the conventional battlefield so they use other tactics: bombing the Crimean bridge, drone strikes on Moscow, etc. Israel has nothing to do with it (though British intelligence probably played a part).
Dont disagree, but they pulled most planes off runway readiness, and many were moved further east out of Ukrainian strike distance.
Which probably puts them closer to Iran, ironically.