I know theres a lot of "it was the joos!" Out there but hear me out. This one lines up nicely.
Background - Russia has long propped up the Iranian regime as a counter to US/Israel in the region.
Premise - Israel had to neutralize Russias long range strike capabilities before risking a war on Iran.
Tactics - both attacks used infiltration and local drone assembly/attacks. Both totally novel and never seen before in close succession. Timng and tactics indicate the same origin.
Outcome - remaining capabilities moved to far east. Southbound ordinance would have to cross China, which is diplomatically touchy. Reduces but doesn't remove threat to Ukraine.
QED
I think they'd be much more likely to use SU 34s and the like to defend their allies rather than those old elephants.
That strike was another example of Ukraine's asymetric warfare. They can't win on the conventional battlefield so they use other tactics: bombing the Crimean bridge, drone strikes on Moscow, etc. Israel has nothing to do with it (though British intelligence probably played a part).
Dont disagree, but they pulled most planes off runway readiness, and many were moved further east out of Ukrainian strike distance.
Which probably puts them closer to Iran, ironically.
How so? Anything East of Krasnodar puts flight paths over several other countries.
Rumor is most are all the way out in Kamchatka.
I highly doubt they're in Kamchatka.