There is zero evidence that Stalin intended westward expansion outside of basic vassalization efforts that most Great Powers engage in. This is the whole point of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact: Stalin agreed to fully separate spheres of influence. This is because both he and Lenin were on the same page on that front, and is one of the primary reasons he had Trotsky exiled and then executed. Trotsky wanted world-wide communist revolutions, even pushing for Communist revolutions in Paris. Stalin wanted to continue re-tooling Soviet infrastructure until he could achieve some semblance of Autarkey (impossible), and end the perpetual food problems (also impossible).
Hitler wasn't stupid, but he was making critical fucking errors and seriously underestimating the danger of the USSR. Hitler actively funded the Soviet Union and gave them desperately needed refined goods while they attempted to industrialize. Hitler chose to invade with Barbarossa when he did because he thought that Soviet re-armament and incompetence was still as bad as it was in the Winter War. He also wasn't impressed by Communist troops in Spain. He assumed that due to Stalin's unpopularity in the East, he'd be able to steam-roll any Soviet vassal armies. Because the USSR had been dependent on Germany for industrial supply, he assumed the economy would fall apart as well.
He was wrong on all fronts. Not from stupidity, but the information he had gave him a false sense of security. The economy was done re-tooling and was now fully capable of industrial output that he literally thought was impossible, in his own words. The purges of the armies were completed already. Retraining was finished as the invasion started. The abuses of the Wermacht and SS caused many more anti-Stalin forces to avoid joining him (even anti-Stalin Communists could have worked with him). And absolutely worst of all: Stalin literally had no plans of invading Germany. None. All the fear he had of a massive Bolshevik onslaught actually wasn't real, and he couldn't see it.
He admitted in recordings at the Eagle's Nest that he didn't understand how bad of a position the Soviets were in in 1935 and 1938, and probably could have invaded during the Winter War on Finland's behalf, but wasn't confident in his own army's abilities at the time. Meanwhile, by the time he finally did invade, he didn't realize how massively the situation had changed in only 2 years.
It's not "stupid", he just didn't have complete intel, and never exploited some of the critical advantages he could have needed. Mostly because of the Nazi arrogance and supremacism.
Suvorov argued that Joseph Stalin planned a conquest of Europe for many years, and was preparing to launch a surprise attack on Nazi Germany at the end of summer of 1941 to begin that plan
It's not taken seriously because the only evidence that exists is pointing in the opposite direction.
He assumed that due to Stalin's unpopularity in the East, he'd be able to steam-roll any Soviet vassal armies.
To be fair, he technically wasnt wrong on that one. It was well documented that a lot of the armies that were heavy in non-Russian ethnic groups (Lithuanians, Ukrainians, Polish, etc) did just mass surrender to the Nazi's, or turned their guns around and joined them. And it is true that many of the people of those areas did indeed welcome the Wermacht as liberators and showered them with gifts and recruits, as well as promises of anti-partisan militias.
But like you said, that goodwill was almost immediately covered in gasoline and set on fire pretty much as soon as the SS showed up and started doing SS things. And suddenly, what had once been pacified territory that required a token garrison was now completely destablized and rife with guerillas at a time when the Wermacht could ill afford such a situation, and they never recovered from it.
Which, if anything, shows why pragmatism will almost always win out over dogma in the long run.
I agree. Hell, the Soviet Red Army had the highest rate of defection of any army, and they were winning. That's per capita.
Part of it makes me wonder that if Germany had been Fascist like Italy, Spain, or Portugal, could they have won the war? Frankly, I'm not even certain there would have been a holocaust if Germany was Fascist rather than National Socialist. Hell, Japan might have had a better go of it if they hadn't done exactly what the Nazis did.
There is zero evidence that Stalin intended westward expansion outside of basic vassalization efforts that most Great Powers engage in. This is the whole point of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact: Stalin agreed to fully separate spheres of influence. This is because both he and Lenin were on the same page on that front, and is one of the primary reasons he had Trotsky exiled and then executed. Trotsky wanted world-wide communist revolutions, even pushing for Communist revolutions in Paris. Stalin wanted to continue re-tooling Soviet infrastructure until he could achieve some semblance of Autarkey (impossible), and end the perpetual food problems (also impossible).
Hitler wasn't stupid, but he was making critical fucking errors and seriously underestimating the danger of the USSR. Hitler actively funded the Soviet Union and gave them desperately needed refined goods while they attempted to industrialize. Hitler chose to invade with Barbarossa when he did because he thought that Soviet re-armament and incompetence was still as bad as it was in the Winter War. He also wasn't impressed by Communist troops in Spain. He assumed that due to Stalin's unpopularity in the East, he'd be able to steam-roll any Soviet vassal armies. Because the USSR had been dependent on Germany for industrial supply, he assumed the economy would fall apart as well.
He was wrong on all fronts. Not from stupidity, but the information he had gave him a false sense of security. The economy was done re-tooling and was now fully capable of industrial output that he literally thought was impossible, in his own words. The purges of the armies were completed already. Retraining was finished as the invasion started. The abuses of the Wermacht and SS caused many more anti-Stalin forces to avoid joining him (even anti-Stalin Communists could have worked with him). And absolutely worst of all: Stalin literally had no plans of invading Germany. None. All the fear he had of a massive Bolshevik onslaught actually wasn't real, and he couldn't see it.
He admitted in recordings at the Eagle's Nest that he didn't understand how bad of a position the Soviets were in in 1935 and 1938, and probably could have invaded during the Winter War on Finland's behalf, but wasn't confident in his own army's abilities at the time. Meanwhile, by the time he finally did invade, he didn't realize how massively the situation had changed in only 2 years.
It's not "stupid", he just didn't have complete intel, and never exploited some of the critical advantages he could have needed. Mostly because of the Nazi arrogance and supremacism.
It's not taken seriously because the only evidence that exists is pointing in the opposite direction.
To be fair, he technically wasnt wrong on that one. It was well documented that a lot of the armies that were heavy in non-Russian ethnic groups (Lithuanians, Ukrainians, Polish, etc) did just mass surrender to the Nazi's, or turned their guns around and joined them. And it is true that many of the people of those areas did indeed welcome the Wermacht as liberators and showered them with gifts and recruits, as well as promises of anti-partisan militias.
But like you said, that goodwill was almost immediately covered in gasoline and set on fire pretty much as soon as the SS showed up and started doing SS things. And suddenly, what had once been pacified territory that required a token garrison was now completely destablized and rife with guerillas at a time when the Wermacht could ill afford such a situation, and they never recovered from it.
Which, if anything, shows why pragmatism will almost always win out over dogma in the long run.
I agree. Hell, the Soviet Red Army had the highest rate of defection of any army, and they were winning. That's per capita.
Part of it makes me wonder that if Germany had been Fascist like Italy, Spain, or Portugal, could they have won the war? Frankly, I'm not even certain there would have been a holocaust if Germany was Fascist rather than National Socialist. Hell, Japan might have had a better go of it if they hadn't done exactly what the Nazis did.