Austria: populists score historic win
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That was to be expected. The mistake you make is in assuming that all or even most BSW supporters would support the AfD if she weren't there. You don't know just how much the AfD has been demonized.
There is a far greater change of them going to the AfD if she disappoints them.
I'm well aware of the visceral nature of anti-AFD propaganda. I'm also aware of what happened to the AFD's polling immediately after the formation of the BSW was announced and the German media went all in on contrasting and attacking both parties. A significant number of BSW voters would have voted AFD in their absence.
Right now, migration and the Russia/Ukraine war are far and away the two most important issues to German voters. The BSW has gained traction by opposing the establishment parties on both issues. And yet even in Thuringia, where the AFD and the BSW between them have enough seats to form a government without the need for any other parties, Wagenknecht and her regional leaders chose to rule out a coalition with the AFD, the only other party that agrees with them on both of those issues, and instead pursue government formation with the establishment parties that have proven track records on both issues that are fundamentally at odds with the BSW's stated values.
This was always their purpose.
Judging by the polling, not that many. Certainly not enough to change the results meaningfully. Which is why I point out that it's good to have two to appeal to different groups, rather than one.
Well, let's see what happens. I think it will be easier on the Land level as the issues of Ukraine and immigration are mostly not Land issues.