I'm also aware of what happened to the AFD's polling immediately after the formation of the BSW was announced and the German media went all in on contrasting and attacking both parties. A significant number of BSW voters would have voted AFD in their absence.

Judging by the polling, not that many. Certainly not enough to change the results meaningfully. Which is why I point out that it's good to have two to appeal to different groups, rather than one.

Wagenknecht and her regional leaders chose to rule out a coalition with the AFD, the only other party that agrees with them on both of those issues, and instead pursue government formation with the establishment parties that have proven track records on both issues that are fundamentally at odds with the BSW's stated values.

Well, let's see what happens. I think it will be easier on the Land level as the issues of Ukraine and immigration are mostly not Land issues.