Republican primary voters most popular issues: This is the way
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Mearsheimer is a dumbass & not objective at all.
The best source is Michael Kofman. His best info was I believe that Ukraine was getting 5+:1 in favor in Russia's attacks elsewhere, but in Bakhmut this progressively fell to 3:1 then 2:1 as Bakhmut was progressively getting encircled & thus in an increasingly vulnerable position.
Beat in mind this Ukraine's big K:D advantages come from Russian ATTACKS specifically. The "background killing" of the war favors Russia, not Ukraine, because of the large disparity in artillery fire, but not by a large margin. Less than 2:1 somewhere. Probably in a range around 1.5:1 in Russia's favor. This is so horribly inefficient though that it can't be "scaled up". Russia will never again see the huge advantage it had in May/June 2022 when it was firing 10x-15x what the Ukrainians were.
I didn't get it from anyone specific but I've seen it mentioned several times over the years [Shoigu's big rise was back in 2012]. Obviously he doesn't look Russian so I looked it up when I 1st saw him & honestly it's the obvious conclusion that has happened a number of times throughout history where empires would use "outsiders" in high positions of authority since their legitimacy was owed entirely to their masters. Also the whole concept of eunuchs.
Unfortunately for him. I don't care really either way, but honestly as far as I'm concerned the Ukraine war is over. It's just a bloody stalemate now in a maintenance phase similar to the later Korean War. I want the US role to taper off to the point where we are only helping Ukraine with ISR spotting & artillery ammo, while leaving the rest to Europe, as we shift everything that isn't nailed down to Japan & the Philippines.
Eventually Russia will tire of the war & stop. It might take 1-2 more years and 1-3 more failed offensives. The constantly loss of money & lives will demoralize the Russian leadership & people until something eventually gives way & Putin starts looking for an exit strategy.
It is unlikely that Europe & Ukraine will let Putin keep his new conquests, but I think a peace agreement based on the pre-invasion Feb 2022 borders is a likely result.
Ukraine could surprise with a breakthrough & Russia could surprise with a collapse, but I'd say the odds of that are less then 30%. Most likely defense will continue to dominate thanks to Russia taking its defense industrial base more seriously than Europe.
Liberals responded to Reagan kicking their ass by moderating temporarily, finding their footing in the 90s, then getting progressively more liberal in the 00s until they broke out into full hysteria in 2012-2020.
If history repeats & they moderate again, DeSantis will buy us 8 years of a golden age & perhaps a generation free from wokeness.
If not, the US will fracture into a national divorce of some kind as Americans - including me, relocate to red/blue states on partisan lines. The determining factor is whether the "moderate" neolib Democrats are willing to knife the wokes in the back.
Chinese hegemony over Asia & multiple major, bloody wars as the US & China engage in a Punic-War-style struggle over the future of the world.
Unlike the US, China will use every ounce of leverage it has to crush down the US & anyone else opposed to it, in order to prevent them from ever challenging it again. This is existential so we will have to fight our way out.
The world has never seen anything like this. The Cold War was cold. This will be a hot war, or many hot wars, between nuclear powers. It is not impossible that tactical nuclear weapons will be used, normalized, & thus warfare radically changed into some Fallout-style dystopian shit.
The mediator of the Left elite's power is the media. Think about that. Think about all the power the media has lost since 2016. Times are changing. The media still has power, but its slipping. I don't think liberal elite power will survive a DeSantis administration. DeSantis is their Waterloo, Gettysburg, Saratoga. Trump, while he was a threat, was one they could undermine & defeat over time. Trump did play an important role in exposing them & enabling the next wave to fight them better than he did.
Interesting. I think Europe will actively look for ways to spite Russia once it realizes that Ukraine will not "win" the war by retaking Crimea & such.
Not at all. Russia's paper strength was a joke. NATO SEAD would demolish it. Jamming alone & wild weasel tactics would be enough. Stealth just makes it a joke. Poor Russian troop quality is an ongoing problem that has only gotten worse.
If you think NATO would lose hundreds of planes, you simply are ignorant of the state of the art of NATO SEAD. Just read about it in Gulf Wars 1 & 2. US non-stealth aircraft like F-16s routinely defeated Russian SAM systems kinetically even when ambushed without stealth or jamming.
Russian artillery, while numerous, had laughably obsolete kill chains with a total lack of sophisticated counter-battery radars, shoot & scoot doctrine, & adequate ISR.
Ukraine, even now, is WINNING the counter-battery artillery duels in K:D despite being outgunned, because Ukrainians are trained & equipped to better follow basic NATO artillery doctrines that have been around for 40+ years. Russia has slowly improved its glaring weaknesses, but still remains far, far behind NATO equivalents.
What massive investments? Russian nukes are probably overwhelmingly in a decrepit state except for a small number of newer prestige systems. Paper strength is very important to Russia, though, & it leans heavily on its nukes to pretend it still is a "Great Power".
He believes almost the exact same thing as Elbridge Colby, except that he puts the emphasis on other areas. Mearsheimer is as hawkish on China and Taiwan as you and Colby are.
You're just prejudiced against him because of your misplaced nationalism making you identify with your state, which leads you to defend actions that you yourself oppose - like the destruction of Yugoslavia.
A cursory search showed that he works for an organization that receives funding from the USG. It's interesting how many organizations the USG gives money in order to whitewash what it wants people to believe.
5:1 means that if Ukraine suffered 15,000 deaths, which was a claim by the Ukrainian high command blindly copied by the USG in those leaked documents, Russia suffered 75,000 deaths, and with the 4:1 ratio of wounded to deaths, makes for 375,000 casualties. That's basically 100% of the Russian forces. Along with minimal casualties for Ukraine, that would have meant Russian collapse a long time ago.
I find it very hard to believe that Russia, with 4 times the population, many times the industrial capacity, can't easily outproduce a corrupt puppet shithole non-country by a long shot.
Ah, so I guess this is an idea that's in the ether. Why were you interested in Russian politics back in 2012 though?
No doubt you would like that, and to be fair, your puppets in Europe are so slavish that they'll probably say "yes, Master, we'll defend your other puppet".
Who is suffering more from the war, Russia or the US puppet?
LOL! Are you serious? Why on earth would Russia evacuate those areas that it shed blood for and which it can easily defend? Like I've told you before, this would result in Putin's execution. The siloviki would never allow it.
More European subjects were killed last winter due to the energy crisis created by the EU, than Russians during the war. It's sad and hiliarious at the same time. European governments would be willing to kill half their population if it pleased the Americans and led to plum jobs for them. And you're so misinformed that you call Putin the bad guy.
The only 'breakthroughs' that Ukraine has found are new and innovative ways to get the flower of its youth killed and maimed.
Or Russia could "surprise" (you at least) by pressing on to Odessa, Kharkov, take Kiev and leave a demilitarized, Vichy-like Galicia rump state as a buffer with Poland. If that were to happen, you'd blame Biden and the "libs" for being weak or something.
Unfortunately, I think Putin is too cautious to do what is necessary. Fortunately, you're forcing his hand to become more and more tough on ya.
The problem is that wokeness is not pushed by the Democratic Party, but by all the elites. They push it in every organization while brainwashing kids in public schools. I support what DeSantis has done, but I don't think it's a cureall.
Catastrophizing. There's no indication that China is at all interested in dominating anyone beyond its immediate neighborhood. And if the US gets to have a Monroe Doctrine, why shouldn't China? I think it's bad, but the US is no better - and actually a good deal worse.
Wait, weren't you berating the "selfish Euros" for supposedly wanting to stay out of this?
The media propagandizes the views of the elites to the population. But what the population thinks does not matter at all. If the media lost all influence, they'd still continue to push their agenda due to their control of every last organization and institution. It's not easy to resolve this.
Well, you said that any peace agreement would include everything except Crimea. If they think it's bad, then they're very, very stupid (but then again, they are). You once said that a peace agreement (which I supported) with Russia getting Crimea, Donetsk, Lugansk, no NATO no EU would be a loss for Russia.
I am.
And for that reason, it's very hard for me to judge any claim about military strength. One side says one thing, the other side says another. Since NATO has not been in a hot war against a serious opponent for a long time, I don't think it's at all unlikely that it will take mass casualties and losses. Do you have any idea how weak European militaries are? If Russia were to attack or provoke NATO, maybe China should simultaneously land in Taiwan to prevent the US from doing anything. That would probably lead to economic collapse in Europe and the US as well.
Those of the 1990s and ongoing. If paper strength is important, then it means something. You guys keep saying that Russian troops attack with shovels, but somehow, they keep gaining territory and beating back US-sponsored sorties with shovels.
Good to hear he is hawkish on China, but he & Colby sound nothing alike on Russia/Ukraine. Mearsheimer's problem is that he legitimizes Russian aggression as being natural, proper, & correct, instead of being the failed attempt at empire-building that it is. Mearsheimer's base problem is that he contends that Russia is ENTITLED to an empire & so we should let it rebuild the Soviet Union, which is laughable.
Ad hominem. Actually listen to his War on the Rocks podcast. I've read tons of sources on Ukraine and Kofman is the best. Period. He's the gold standard.
https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/ukraines-offensive-and-russias-localized-counterattacks/
No, that's not what that means. I hate that I have to explain this to you since you're supposed to be smarter than this, but 5:1 was only early on, not for the whole fight.
The deaths - 16-17.5k KIA - were for the whole war. Russia was assessed at 35.5k-43.5k KIA whole war, yielding a Ukraine overall K:D of about 2.5:1.
That makes perfect sense being in-line with the estimates I gave you.
Russia is outproducing Ukraine. It is also outproducing NATO in some areas like artillery ammo. https://twitter.com/dekach1n/status/1662222051854422018
No but I would have read about it with all the Euromaidan/Crimea stuff when that happened.
You've got that backwards. The Euros care a lot more about Ukraine than the US does, because Ukraine is THEIR buffer state against Russia. Russia doesn't pose any direct threat to the US.
Ukraine is fighting for its freedom. Russians are fighting for Putin's ego. One motivation is stronger than the other.
Because it cannot "easily defend" them.
Because the cost of the war + sanctions will impoverish & hollow out Russia in the long term & that low-value land isn't worth the incredibly high cost that must be paid to continue to rent it.
As the whole Wagner debacle just proved, nobody is in any position to "execute" Putin. There is no such thing as some hard-liner elite in Russia invested in this war. They do not exist. Putin is the driving force for the war & his oligarchs would rather he end it so they can go back to making money. This isn't August 1991, there are no hard liners. The head of the military Shoigu will gladly do whatever Putin says without complaint.
LOL no. It was a historically warm winter & heating gas demand was far lower than stockpiled supplies.
False in every respect. You have left the land of the sane & are walking the path of delusion hand in hand with the trannies. Russia tried its best to attack for over 6 months with all it had, & took only a tiny amount of land.
The only way Russia could win is if Europe decides to stop supplying Ukraine & Ukraine runs out of ammo the way the Finns did in the Winter War. Short of that Russia has no prospects for any offensive success.
No, wokeness is not pushed by the right wing elite, though most of them are somewhat agnostic on it & don't care to fight against it either.
Yes there is. China banned the NBA because 1 guy tweeted something about supporting protests in Hong Kong.
China's foreign policy model is to export its internal model of repression. The only reason it is not doing so more aggressively right now, is because it lacks the power to do so. The moment it has the power, it will do so.
China also needs to do so, to prevent the US from striking it down. It needs to seize all the empire it can so it can exclude the US & grow China while holding the US down.
Also the US has not used the Monroe Doctrine in forever. I never hear the term outside of people like you. If the Monroe Doctrine was real, how does Cuba exist? Venezuela? These are hostile enemy states that the US tolerates.
China has spy bases in Cuba & is building a huge new spy base costing billions right off the Florida coast. Where is your Monroe Doctrine now?
Yes, and? They are selfish. I will add "cowards" to the list given your response.
Euros: "We want the RBIO"
America: "Okay, are you prepared to fight for it?"
Euros: "lol no, you do that for us, lol suckers"
Yes of course it would. That was the status quo before the invasion. It would mean the invasion was all for nothing.
China can't just "land in Taiwan", it would take a 6+ month buildup during which the US would have full knowledge that China was planning to attack, just as we knew 6+ months in advance that Russia was attacking Ukraine.
No one I see is saying shovels but then against I don't look at tweets from people with dog icons on twitter. Watch this: https://youtu.be/olH2-_Gtczw I think it is a very good summary of the state of the war. Perun is my #2 after Kofman.
I think they come from the same perspective (which is different from mine) but to different conclusions.
Mearsheimer thinks that Russia/Ukraine is small fries so Russia should be accommodated to get an ally against China. While I think that is smart in political terms, I agree more with Colby, because I don't want Russia to ally with the West and strengthen it.
If you are a realist, then you know that such judgments are not the job of an IR specialist. Although Russian self-defense is natural, proper and correct, Mearsheimer has never pointed out that it is. He has only warned that attempts of the West to colonize Ukraine would provoke a Russian reaction, and he was right.
How is it in any way an ad hominem to point out that someone is funded by the US government?
You're just accepting US 'intelligence' figures at face value? I used it as an a fortiori. Regardless, 43.5 would mean 200k+ casualties, which seems absurd to me.
Not by enough. Where's the industrial capacity that produced 20k tanks a year during World War II with half the productive areas under occupation? Some pro-Russia claim the Kremlins are half-assing the war and not taking it seriously (and I know you claim they want to but can't), and it's hard for me to judge.
Nor to the Euros. Russia isn't going to conquer Madrid. The only threat is to US hegemony.
Ukraine is fighting for the right to parade around with SS emblems, ban religions media and political parties, shell Russian speakers, shoot POWs in the knee and be prostitutes to America. Russians are fighting for their historic lands, and against the bullying of arrogant world hegemons.
Ukraine has not even reached the first defensive line. What are they even doing?
The cost of abandoning Russian land is infinitely greater to the regime. Like I've told you, I expect the siloviki will put a bullet in any decisionmaker who attempt such treason. Does Putin care more about your bullying with sanctions, or does he care more about not getting a bullet in the neck?
The entire political nation is united in support for the war. The only dissent is from people who think it is not waged aggressively enough, like opposition leader Gennady Zyuganov, of the Communist Party (banned in 'democratic' Ukraine).
I believe it about Shoigu. I don't believe it about the generals, the GRU and the FSB.
Even if you think Putin would order a withdrawal, which he won't, and that he would survive such a decision, which he won't - it would lead to the fall of the regime.
68,000 died according to estimates, even though it was a historically warm winter. That's more than your claims about the number of Russians who died. Like I told you, these European puppets of yours will gladly sacrifice half their population on the altar of your empire, which is why I despise them so much.
If that's the best-case scenario you can think of, that Russia will only drive to Odessa, Kharkov and Kiev when the Europeans are devastated, bankrupt and think better of their attempts at economic terrorism, I like those odds. Because there is not a single person I've spoken in the past year who is happy with the mess they're making.
I don't believe in such a thing as 'right-wing elites'. Who? Politicians? They'll tell you anything you want to hear, and then push what the elites want.
While I support such freedom as Hong Kong enjoyed before the counterproductive crackdown, that is interference with China's internal affairs. It's not China pushing BLM, rioting and transgenderism on the rest of the world like some other countries.
You think Cuba is a good example of how the Monroe Doctrine is fake, when Cuba was invaded, Operation Northwoods was cooked up to have an excuse for a war, and the US threatened to end humanity because the USSR parked some nuclear warheads there? It's the confirmation. Countries in the Americas are not allowed to have a military alliance with other countries. Hell, the US wouldn't rule out invading the Solomon Islands over a proposed Chinese military base, while simultaneously arguing that Ukraine has every right to host as much NATO garbage as it wants.
The world would hate your country less if it weren't as hypocritical.
A spy base is nothing, call me when China puts the PLA there.
More like:
European people: "Pls leave us alone, Murica."
America: "LOL NO"
European elites: "Whatever you say, Master."
America: "I think it would be fun to burn down another country."
European elites: "Name the target, Master."
America: "Hmm... I think I want to see human skin burn in Libya."
European elites: "On it!"
America: "lol suckers"
It's making it official and permanent. Which seemed pretty good to me, because I know that long wars are rarely worth the cost. But given the cost now, I don't want any such thing as a 'Ukraine' around.
Yeah, so? How would that prevent a simultaneous Russian and Chinese attack, or improve the chance for the Puppy Play Alliance?
lol
I watched it. Seemed a bit anti-Russia to me. Comparing Kherson to the current line seemed absurd, even with the qualification that it's more easily defended. It underlined some of my worries when I saw pro-Russia brag about how Ukraine hadn't even gotten to the first line, that Russia may be sacrificing more than is absolutely necessary. I guess we'll see, eh?