Good to hear he is hawkish on China, but he & Colby sound nothing alike on Russia/Ukraine.

I think they come from the same perspective (which is different from mine) but to different conclusions.

Mearsheimer thinks that Russia/Ukraine is small fries so Russia should be accommodated to get an ally against China. While I think that is smart in political terms, I agree more with Colby, because I don't want Russia to ally with the West and strengthen it.

Mearsheimer's problem is that he legitimizes Russian aggression as being natural, proper, & correct

If you are a realist, then you know that such judgments are not the job of an IR specialist. Although Russian self-defense is natural, proper and correct, Mearsheimer has never pointed out that it is. He has only warned that attempts of the West to colonize Ukraine would provoke a Russian reaction, and he was right.

Ad hominem. Actually listen to his War on the Rocks podcast. I've read tons of sources on Ukraine and Kofman is the best. Period. He's the gold standard.

How is it in any way an ad hominem to point out that someone is funded by the US government?

The deaths - 16-17.5k KIA - were for the whole war. Russia was assessed at 35.5k-43.5k KIA whole war, yielding a Ukraine overall K:D of about 2.5:1.

You're just accepting US 'intelligence' figures at face value? I used it as an a fortiori. Regardless, 43.5 would mean 200k+ casualties, which seems absurd to me.

Russia is outproducing Ukraine. It is also outproducing NATO in some areas like artillery ammo

Not by enough. Where's the industrial capacity that produced 20k tanks a year during World War II with half the productive areas under occupation? Some pro-Russia claim the Kremlins are half-assing the war and not taking it seriously (and I know you claim they want to but can't), and it's hard for me to judge.

You've got that backwards. The Euros care a lot more about Ukraine than the US does, because Ukraine is THEIR buffer state against Russia. Russia doesn't pose any direct threat to the US.

Nor to the Euros. Russia isn't going to conquer Madrid. The only threat is to US hegemony.

Ukraine is fighting for its freedom. Russians are fighting for Putin's ego. One motivation is stronger than the other.

Ukraine is fighting for the right to parade around with SS emblems, ban religions media and political parties, shell Russian speakers, shoot POWs in the knee and be prostitutes to America. Russians are fighting for their historic lands, and against the bullying of arrogant world hegemons.

Because it cannot "easily defend" them.

Ukraine has not even reached the first defensive line. What are they even doing?

Because the cost of the war + sanctions will impoverish & hollow out Russia in the long term & that low-value land isn't worth the incredibly high cost that must be paid to continue to rent it.

The cost of abandoning Russian land is infinitely greater to the regime. Like I've told you, I expect the siloviki will put a bullet in any decisionmaker who attempt such treason. Does Putin care more about your bullying with sanctions, or does he care more about not getting a bullet in the neck?

As the whole Wagner debacle just proved, nobody is in any position to "execute" Putin. There is no such thing as some hard-liner elite in Russia invested in this war. They do not exist.

The entire political nation is united in support for the war. The only dissent is from people who think it is not waged aggressively enough, like opposition leader Gennady Zyuganov, of the Communist Party (banned in 'democratic' Ukraine).

This isn't August 1991, there are no hard liners. The head of the military Shoigu will gladly do whatever Putin says without complaint.

I believe it about Shoigu. I don't believe it about the generals, the GRU and the FSB.

Even if you think Putin would order a withdrawal, which he won't, and that he would survive such a decision, which he won't - it would lead to the fall of the regime.

LOL no. It was a historically warm winter & heating gas demand was far lower than stockpiled supplies.

68,000 died according to estimates, even though it was a historically warm winter. That's more than your claims about the number of Russians who died. Like I told you, these European puppets of yours will gladly sacrifice half their population on the altar of your empire, which is why I despise them so much.

False in every respect. You have left the land of the sane & are walking the path of delusion hand in hand with the trannies. Russia tried its best to attack for over 6 months with all it had, & took only a tiny amount of land.

The only way Russia could win is if Europe decides to stop supplying Ukraine & Ukraine runs out of ammo the way the Finns did in the Winter War. Short of that Russia has no prospects for any offensive success.

If that's the best-case scenario you can think of, that Russia will only drive to Odessa, Kharkov and Kiev when the Europeans are devastated, bankrupt and think better of their attempts at economic terrorism, I like those odds. Because there is not a single person I've spoken in the past year who is happy with the mess they're making.

No, wokeness is not pushed by the right wing elite, though most of them are somewhat agnostic on it & don't care to fight against it either.

I don't believe in such a thing as 'right-wing elites'. Who? Politicians? They'll tell you anything you want to hear, and then push what the elites want.

Yes there is. China banned the NBA because 1 guy tweeted something about supporting protests in Hong Kong.

While I support such freedom as Hong Kong enjoyed before the counterproductive crackdown, that is interference with China's internal affairs. It's not China pushing BLM, rioting and transgenderism on the rest of the world like some other countries.

Also the US has not used the Monroe Doctrine in forever. I never hear the term outside of people like you. If the Monroe Doctrine was real, how does Cuba exist? Venezuela? These are hostile enemy states that the US tolerates.

You think Cuba is a good example of how the Monroe Doctrine is fake, when Cuba was invaded, Operation Northwoods was cooked up to have an excuse for a war, and the US threatened to end humanity because the USSR parked some nuclear warheads there? It's the confirmation. Countries in the Americas are not allowed to have a military alliance with other countries. Hell, the US wouldn't rule out invading the Solomon Islands over a proposed Chinese military base, while simultaneously arguing that Ukraine has every right to host as much NATO garbage as it wants.

The world would hate your country less if it weren't as hypocritical.

China has spy bases in Cuba & is building a huge new spy base costing billions right off the Florida coast. Where is your Monroe Doctrine now?

A spy base is nothing, call me when China puts the PLA there.

Yes, and? They are selfish. I will add "cowards" to the list given your response.

Euros: "We want the RBIO"

America: "Okay, are you prepared to fight for it?"

Euros: "lol no, you do that for us, lol suckers"

More like:

European people: "Pls leave us alone, Murica."
America: "LOL NO"
European elites: "Whatever you say, Master."
America: "I think it would be fun to burn down another country."
European elites: "Name the target, Master."
America: "Hmm... I think I want to see human skin burn in Libya."
European elites: "On it!"
America: "lol suckers"

Yes of course it would. That was the status quo before the invasion. It would mean the invasion was all for nothing.

It's making it official and permanent. Which seemed pretty good to me, because I know that long wars are rarely worth the cost. But given the cost now, I don't want any such thing as a 'Ukraine' around.

China can't just "land in Taiwan", it would take a 6+ month buildup during which the US would have full knowledge that China was planning to attack, just as we knew 6+ months in advance that Russia was attacking Ukraine.

Yeah, so? How would that prevent a simultaneous Russian and Chinese attack, or improve the chance for the Puppy Play Alliance?

No one I see is saying shovels but then against I don't look at tweets from people with dog icons on twitter.

lol

Watch this: https://youtu.be/olH2-_Gtczw I think it is a very good summary of the state of the war. Perun is my #2 after Kofman.

I watched it. Seemed a bit anti-Russia to me. Comparing Kherson to the current line seemed absurd, even with the qualification that it's more easily defended. It underlined some of my worries when I saw pro-Russia brag about how Ukraine hadn't even gotten to the first line, that Russia may be sacrificing more than is absolutely necessary. I guess we'll see, eh?