If Trump loses the nomination and actually becomes a spoiler 3rd party candidate and gifts the Dems 2024, he destroys his legacy completely.
He will be hated by everyone on the right who is not a mindless Trump sycophant.
The Dems would easily be able to indict Trump in 2025 without fear of backlash and most right wing voters would be okay with it.
Right now I just want Trump to retire.
If he is petty and narcissistic enough to doom us to 4 more years of Dem rule over his stupid ego, I will have no sympathy for him when the left will likely railroad him in court.
The Trump currently around is not the 2016 one that shocked the establishment or the 2020 one that was such a threat they changed the rules to win.
I don't know if he has that same force of nature not to step aside for ego if it came to that, which is why I'd rather focus on everything below the presidency
6 representatives managed to hold the house in limbo for days till they got deals to end it that included more restrictions on the speaker, we need more like that in both the house and senate then the president can't do fuck all. The only reason the presidency has so much power is both the house and senate shirking responsibilities for centuries..
Regardless of who is the nominee in 2024, the most important thing is ensuring Dems don't get a trifecta. If the Dems manage to get a trifecta in 2024, kiss everything goodbye.
That means holding the House and or flipping the Senate. Holding the House will be hard as the current majority is very thin.
On the other hand the 2024 Senate map is the most favorable Senate map for Republicans in 2 decades.
There are 3 relatively easy flips in solid red states as long as we can get good candidates as the nominees.
The path to flip the Senate is relatively easy as long as our primary voters don't go full retard like they did in swing states like GA, PA and MI in 2022. We cannot have Herschel Walker, Dr. Oz., Doug Mastriano and Tudor Dixon level nominees again.
Best options:
Governor Jim Justice in WV against Joe Manchin.
Secretary of State Frank LaRose in OH against Sherrod Brown.
Attorney General Austin Knudsen or Governor Greg Gianforte in MT against Jon Tester.
Montana Senate is the race we can easily throw away if the base acts dumb.
Rosendale already lost in 2018 to Tester and he has more baggage since then and Zinke has way too much baggage with his corruption allegations.
The base must think here and not nominate Rosendale and Zinke.
The only incumbent seat that worries me a little is Ted Cruz in Texas.
We need Cruz to run a much better campaign than he did against Beto in 2018.
Cruz will likely be up against Collin Alred who will get big margins in the DFW suburbs. Cruz needs to outperform Trump in the suburbs if Trump is the presidential nominee in 2024. If DeSantis is the nominee, he would carry Cruz easily in 2024.
Trump's already done a good job fucking his image on his own. Refusing to acknowledge his mistakes with the lock downs and operation warp speed are part of it, but his stance on red flag laws and his "platinum plan" bullshit are another one too.
Which, quite frankly, is why I don’t think he would run 3rd party. We may have differing attitudes toward Trumps chances in 2024 (not that I think they are great, just better than you do, and still lean DeSantis). But I think we can both agree that Trump is obsessed with ego and image. If he ran 3rd party and spoiled the vote, all but his most hardcore supporters would turn on him and his legacy would be forever ruined.
Better to sit in the background, rage about how “The RNC totally screwed me for that RINO!” While DeSantis just starts repeating all of the steps he used to turn Florida from a swing state to solid red.
Was it a bluff? Was it real? We will never know because he ended up the nominee in 2016.
What he potentially does in 2024 if he loses the nomination will ultimately decide his legacy.
He can be the patriot who put the sake of America first over his ego or he can be the reviled degenerate who doomed America to a future of globalism by running a narcissistic and doomed third party bid.
At this point in time, I think Trump has no good shot of winning a general election.
There are only four potential outcomes for the presidency for 2024 in my mind:
Trump becomes the nominee, loses the general election and dooms the nation.
Trump loses the nomination and runs third party, splits the vote and dooms the nation.
Trump loses the nomination and actively rallies to persuade enough of his sycophants to stay home and dooms the nation.
Trump loses the nomination and just rants on Truth social and somehow DeSantis ekes out a win.
This is why I think preventing the Dem trifecta by keeping the House or flipping the Senate is the most important thing.
Will his anger in losing the nomination override any sense of rationality he possesses?
I suppose that that comes down to what you feel of Trumps personality. For my money, I do think he would resist the urge. Yes, he is driven by ego and has done bizarre shit because of it. But Ego is a lot easier to read than people give it credit for, and the only way I see him pulling something like that would be if he had some trick up his sleeve to make it work.
Being a loser, who then causes even bigger losing to someone a lot of his supports actually have respect for, would destroy him, which would bruise his ego a whole lot more than just losing and then fuming in the corner. Especially if he can turn it into something that he thinks he can win on ("DeSantis was going to be a weak RINO, but I helped pull him in a more based direction folks!")
If Trump loses the nomination and actually becomes a spoiler 3rd party candidate and gifts the Dems 2024, he destroys his legacy completely.
He will be hated by everyone on the right who is not a mindless Trump sycophant.
The Dems would easily be able to indict Trump in 2025 without fear of backlash and most right wing voters would be okay with it.
Right now I just want Trump to retire.
If he is petty and narcissistic enough to doom us to 4 more years of Dem rule over his stupid ego, I will have no sympathy for him when the left will likely railroad him in court.
The Trump currently around is not the 2016 one that shocked the establishment or the 2020 one that was such a threat they changed the rules to win.
I don't know if he has that same force of nature not to step aside for ego if it came to that, which is why I'd rather focus on everything below the presidency
6 representatives managed to hold the house in limbo for days till they got deals to end it that included more restrictions on the speaker, we need more like that in both the house and senate then the president can't do fuck all. The only reason the presidency has so much power is both the house and senate shirking responsibilities for centuries..
Regardless of who is the nominee in 2024, the most important thing is ensuring Dems don't get a trifecta. If the Dems manage to get a trifecta in 2024, kiss everything goodbye.
That means holding the House and or flipping the Senate. Holding the House will be hard as the current majority is very thin.
On the other hand the 2024 Senate map is the most favorable Senate map for Republicans in 2 decades.
There are 3 relatively easy flips in solid red states as long as we can get good candidates as the nominees.
The path to flip the Senate is relatively easy as long as our primary voters don't go full retard like they did in swing states like GA, PA and MI in 2022. We cannot have Herschel Walker, Dr. Oz., Doug Mastriano and Tudor Dixon level nominees again.
Best options:
Governor Jim Justice in WV against Joe Manchin.
Secretary of State Frank LaRose in OH against Sherrod Brown.
Attorney General Austin Knudsen or Governor Greg Gianforte in MT against Jon Tester.
Montana Senate is the race we can easily throw away if the base acts dumb.
Rosendale already lost in 2018 to Tester and he has more baggage since then and Zinke has way too much baggage with his corruption allegations.
The base must think here and not nominate Rosendale and Zinke.
The only incumbent seat that worries me a little is Ted Cruz in Texas.
We need Cruz to run a much better campaign than he did against Beto in 2018.
Cruz will likely be up against Collin Alred who will get big margins in the DFW suburbs. Cruz needs to outperform Trump in the suburbs if Trump is the presidential nominee in 2024. If DeSantis is the nominee, he would carry Cruz easily in 2024.
Trump's already done a good job fucking his image on his own. Refusing to acknowledge his mistakes with the lock downs and operation warp speed are part of it, but his stance on red flag laws and his "platinum plan" bullshit are another one too.
Which, quite frankly, is why I don’t think he would run 3rd party. We may have differing attitudes toward Trumps chances in 2024 (not that I think they are great, just better than you do, and still lean DeSantis). But I think we can both agree that Trump is obsessed with ego and image. If he ran 3rd party and spoiled the vote, all but his most hardcore supporters would turn on him and his legacy would be forever ruined.
Better to sit in the background, rage about how “The RNC totally screwed me for that RINO!” While DeSantis just starts repeating all of the steps he used to turn Florida from a swing state to solid red.
Seems to me that he's only catering to his most hardcore supporters. Besides, Trump isn't exactly a rational actor.
The question to consider is this?
Will his anger in losing the nomination override any sense of rationality he possesses?
I hope he wouldn't go full retard but the Trump we see in his 2024 campaign is way dumber than the Trump of 2016 or even the Trump of 2020.
In the last two years, he has gotten very unhinged.
In 2016, he was the only GOP who would not promise to back the nominee if he lost. Not exactly out of character.
Was it a bluff? Was it real? We will never know because he ended up the nominee in 2016.
What he potentially does in 2024 if he loses the nomination will ultimately decide his legacy.
He can be the patriot who put the sake of America first over his ego or he can be the reviled degenerate who doomed America to a future of globalism by running a narcissistic and doomed third party bid.
At this point in time, I think Trump has no good shot of winning a general election.
There are only four potential outcomes for the presidency for 2024 in my mind:
Trump becomes the nominee, loses the general election and dooms the nation.
Trump loses the nomination and runs third party, splits the vote and dooms the nation.
Trump loses the nomination and actively rallies to persuade enough of his sycophants to stay home and dooms the nation.
Trump loses the nomination and just rants on Truth social and somehow DeSantis ekes out a win.
This is why I think preventing the Dem trifecta by keeping the House or flipping the Senate is the most important thing.
I suppose that that comes down to what you feel of Trumps personality. For my money, I do think he would resist the urge. Yes, he is driven by ego and has done bizarre shit because of it. But Ego is a lot easier to read than people give it credit for, and the only way I see him pulling something like that would be if he had some trick up his sleeve to make it work.
Being a loser, who then causes even bigger losing to someone a lot of his supports actually have respect for, would destroy him, which would bruise his ego a whole lot more than just losing and then fuming in the corner. Especially if he can turn it into something that he thinks he can win on ("DeSantis was going to be a weak RINO, but I helped pull him in a more based direction folks!")