Which, quite frankly, is why I don’t think he would run 3rd party. We may have differing attitudes toward Trumps chances in 2024 (not that I think they are great, just better than you do, and still lean DeSantis). But I think we can both agree that Trump is obsessed with ego and image. If he ran 3rd party and spoiled the vote, all but his most hardcore supporters would turn on him and his legacy would be forever ruined.
Better to sit in the background, rage about how “The RNC totally screwed me for that RINO!” While DeSantis just starts repeating all of the steps he used to turn Florida from a swing state to solid red.
Was it a bluff? Was it real? We will never know because he ended up the nominee in 2016.
What he potentially does in 2024 if he loses the nomination will ultimately decide his legacy.
He can be the patriot who put the sake of America first over his ego or he can be the reviled degenerate who doomed America to a future of globalism by running a narcissistic and doomed third party bid.
At this point in time, I think Trump has no good shot of winning a general election.
There are only four potential outcomes for the presidency for 2024 in my mind:
Trump becomes the nominee, loses the general election and dooms the nation.
Trump loses the nomination and runs third party, splits the vote and dooms the nation.
Trump loses the nomination and actively rallies to persuade enough of his sycophants to stay home and dooms the nation.
Trump loses the nomination and just rants on Truth social and somehow DeSantis ekes out a win.
This is why I think preventing the Dem trifecta by keeping the House or flipping the Senate is the most important thing.
Was it a bluff? Was it real? We will never know because he ended up the nominee in 2016.
Is it worth risking? I guess if you think that Trump will definitely lose. But isn't that just what you want to believe? Because you haven't been exactly positive on Trump.
At this point in time, I think Trump has no good shot of winning a general election.
According to Predictit, Trump has a 38% chance to win the nomination, and a 26% chance to win the general. So that's a 2-1 chance if he gets the nomination. And you can earn a lot of money if you are that confident.
Trump loses the nomination and just rants on Truth social and somehow DeSantis ekes out a win.
You seem very pessimistic in general. I guess that's better than some other people who claim that DeSantis will score a 49-state landslide.
Will his anger in losing the nomination override any sense of rationality he possesses?
I suppose that that comes down to what you feel of Trumps personality. For my money, I do think he would resist the urge. Yes, he is driven by ego and has done bizarre shit because of it. But Ego is a lot easier to read than people give it credit for, and the only way I see him pulling something like that would be if he had some trick up his sleeve to make it work.
Being a loser, who then causes even bigger losing to someone a lot of his supports actually have respect for, would destroy him, which would bruise his ego a whole lot more than just losing and then fuming in the corner. Especially if he can turn it into something that he thinks he can win on ("DeSantis was going to be a weak RINO, but I helped pull him in a more based direction folks!")
Which, quite frankly, is why I don’t think he would run 3rd party. We may have differing attitudes toward Trumps chances in 2024 (not that I think they are great, just better than you do, and still lean DeSantis). But I think we can both agree that Trump is obsessed with ego and image. If he ran 3rd party and spoiled the vote, all but his most hardcore supporters would turn on him and his legacy would be forever ruined.
Better to sit in the background, rage about how “The RNC totally screwed me for that RINO!” While DeSantis just starts repeating all of the steps he used to turn Florida from a swing state to solid red.
Seems to me that he's only catering to his most hardcore supporters. Besides, Trump isn't exactly a rational actor.
The question to consider is this?
Will his anger in losing the nomination override any sense of rationality he possesses?
I hope he wouldn't go full retard but the Trump we see in his 2024 campaign is way dumber than the Trump of 2016 or even the Trump of 2020.
In the last two years, he has gotten very unhinged.
In 2016, he was the only GOP who would not promise to back the nominee if he lost. Not exactly out of character.
Was it a bluff? Was it real? We will never know because he ended up the nominee in 2016.
What he potentially does in 2024 if he loses the nomination will ultimately decide his legacy.
He can be the patriot who put the sake of America first over his ego or he can be the reviled degenerate who doomed America to a future of globalism by running a narcissistic and doomed third party bid.
At this point in time, I think Trump has no good shot of winning a general election.
There are only four potential outcomes for the presidency for 2024 in my mind:
Trump becomes the nominee, loses the general election and dooms the nation.
Trump loses the nomination and runs third party, splits the vote and dooms the nation.
Trump loses the nomination and actively rallies to persuade enough of his sycophants to stay home and dooms the nation.
Trump loses the nomination and just rants on Truth social and somehow DeSantis ekes out a win.
This is why I think preventing the Dem trifecta by keeping the House or flipping the Senate is the most important thing.
Is it worth risking? I guess if you think that Trump will definitely lose. But isn't that just what you want to believe? Because you haven't been exactly positive on Trump.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
According to Predictit, Trump has a 38% chance to win the nomination, and a 26% chance to win the general. So that's a 2-1 chance if he gets the nomination. And you can earn a lot of money if you are that confident.
You seem very pessimistic in general. I guess that's better than some other people who claim that DeSantis will score a 49-state landslide.
I suppose that that comes down to what you feel of Trumps personality. For my money, I do think he would resist the urge. Yes, he is driven by ego and has done bizarre shit because of it. But Ego is a lot easier to read than people give it credit for, and the only way I see him pulling something like that would be if he had some trick up his sleeve to make it work.
Being a loser, who then causes even bigger losing to someone a lot of his supports actually have respect for, would destroy him, which would bruise his ego a whole lot more than just losing and then fuming in the corner. Especially if he can turn it into something that he thinks he can win on ("DeSantis was going to be a weak RINO, but I helped pull him in a more based direction folks!")