About 7 months ago now, I created a thread that summarized a video interview from Legal Mindset (government name: Andrew Esquire), who is one of the few lawyers specializing in Florida Special Districts law, talking about how all of the attempts at gaslighting about the situation did not actually meet the truth of what was happening, and that DeSantis had actually bent Disney over and spanked their asses with virtually no way out, with a full TLDR of the reasons why listed in the other thread.
Now, there are newspapers and journo's putting out messages with supposed updates about Reedy Creek, spinning the info as DeSantis backing down and Disney winning this fight, especially now that Iger is back in charge.
So the same interviewer did another video with Andrew (one more in-depth about a month ago, and one yesterday with some further Post-Election, Post-Iger clarification). And at least according to Andrew, everything is happening exactly as he called it.
Basically, the "proof" that Disney is winning and DeSantis is backing down is that Reedy Creek will still exist and still have Disney property, and will now just have a board overlooking it. There is just one problem with this narrative: that is what literally every other Special District in the state is like! Part of what made Reedy Creek so unique is that they didnt have that sort of oversight. Now they will, and the board will consist of members from Orange and Osceola counties, as well as appointed representatives from the state of Florida, who are chosen by the Governor.
Now, if Disney wants to do anything, they will have file permits, pay fees and taxes on their work, and have their work approved by the board. Which also means anything they do is going to be going public within hours of them filling the permits, just like what happens with Universal Orlando whenever they plan on doing anything. This is some sort of "win", is it Disney? And the odds they get back their old cushy deal is practically gone now that DeSantis has won a crushing re-election and Iger is back (who has even less pull with Florida representatives than even Chapek did).
So why are they saying that Disney totally is owning DeSantis? Probably the same reason they did the first time: Political favoritism, shills, personal grudges, you name it. Still aint going to help Disney, especially as their financials continue to get worse and worse.
And I can appreciate that, but you're arguments are very much the same as what I could hear on CNN or (at this point) The Daily Wire who are both trying to sink Trump, frankly because he's absolutely going to hold a grudge
Remember that CNN needs Donald Trump to be the 2024 nominee because he is the only hope to keeping their business model alive. CNN survives by promoting Trump alarmism. Many CNN "journalists" have a severe case of TDS but their whole business relies on Trump staying in the headlines.
The Daily Wire on the hand doesn't rely on Trump alarmism. They rely on old-fashioned boomer-cons.
The Daily Wire just wants to move on from Trump using any way possible. Jeremy Boreing and Ben Shapiro have both gotten behind DeSantis only because DeSantis is the ONLY primary challenger who even has a hope of a shot against Trump in a primary. If they thought Nikki Haley or Mike Pence could win a primary against Trump, they would be lining up behind her. Nikki Haley/Mike Pence is the type of Republican that The Daily Wire prefers.
You need to keep in mind that every single Republican in the party that doesn't want Trump 2024 will get behind DeSantis since he is the only viable challenger. This means that yes some unsavory complete scumbags will be getting behind DeSantis.
You can't forget that Trump had complete absolute scumbags like John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, Mike Pence and Jerome Adams in his cabinet.
Regardless of who is the nominee, it is likely that people we both dislike will be in their coalition. We cannot get into purity spirals when trying to forge a winning national coalition.
I prefer DeSantis over Trump mainly because my primary concern is winning 2024 and preventing a Biden second term.
I believe that DeSantis is more likely to able to win a general election as he doesn't trigger a violent disgust in independent voters. I still believe in promoting right wing populism as do you.
The good news is that DeSantis as President will likely govern with policies of right wing populism despite obvious future efforts from the neocons who will try to subvert him.
The advantages of Trump 2024 are that he has still has some dedicated super fans who make up a portion of the GOP base but this advantage comes with a big disadvantage. Trump is a double edged sword who fires up Democrats and independent voters to vote against him.
For every Trump super fan he galvanizes, he galvanizes both an independent voter and a Democrat to vote against him.
Trump is still inflexible to the necessity to harvest ballots in certain swing states. Trump will not adapt to the circumstances.
DeSantis has already stated that the GOP needs to play by the left's ballot rules in states that the GOP is unable to ban ballot harvesting. DeSantis's spokeswoman Christina Pushaw has already talked about the need to build a ballot harvesting operation for the GOP in swing states where it is legal.
The math to electoral success is much better with DeSantis 2024.
With DeSantis, we know yes he will lose the votes of some Trump super fans but he has a much better shot of winning the key independent voters needed to win the states of Arizona and Georgia. Winning an independent voter is worth more as they are essentially gaining two votes, winning an independent voter means -1 Democrat vote and +1 Republican vote. Losing some Trump super fans who won't vote for DeSantis is merely -1 vote as there is no way these people are voting for a Democrat. The political calculus is clear here.
Trump's path to victory is extremely difficult as he struggles heavily in the sunbelt states of Arizona and Georgia. Those two states in the sunbelt prefer Republican candidates who are not unnecessarily verbally offensive. Trump and any candidates endorsed by him struggle in the sunbelt struggle for this reason.
Consider the state of Texas, Cruz and Trump were the worst performing candidates in the last 30 years of the state's electoral history.
Trump's personality and temperament is just a very bad fit for the sunbelt. Trump would need to win all of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to compensate for losing AZ and GA. That is beyond difficult as Michigan has gotten a lot bluer and they have legalized ballot harvesting and Pennsylvania has always been the land of electoral "fortification".
DeSantis on the other hand will likely outperform Trump in AZ and GA enough to narrowly win these two states by employing ballot harvesting. DeSantis would only need to win Wisconsin then to break 270 electoral votes. DeSantis' path relies on building a Ron Johnson type coalition to win the state of Wisconsin. He would be aiming to get slightly better margins in the suburbs to offset the Trump super fans in the rurals that he loses.
Overall my point is that my preference for DeSantis is mainly based on who can beat Joe Biden in 2024. If Trump becomes the nominee in 2024, I will still vote for him even If I think it is likely that Trump as 2024 nominee is fated to lose a general election against Biden.
Having had this conversation before though, I will say Gizortnik at least has a basis to his theory in that he fears DeSantis running will leave Florida open to being re-wokified if he hasn’t finished the purge, and that the Uniparty could put people around him that will defang him like what happened with Boris Johnson.
For my own money, I think it is a valid fear but one that probably won’t happen. And I stand by my theory that we are living an echo of the 1970’s in terms of the Dems having power and attempting to surrender the country to the
SovietsChinese, but that when the history of this time is written, it will be “Trump=Nixon, Biden=Carter, DeSantis=Reagan”, as we go into a new golden age in the next decade.We agree that Trump made bad picks for allies, but most of those were compromises for the GOPe that wants him, possibly literally, dead. I'm counting on Trump holding a fucking grudge and taking a sledgehammer to the neo-Cons. I seriously don't see DeSantis doing that. I see DeSantis being subverted, and unable to clear out the Deep State he will be surrounded by.
As I've said before, my biggest fear is Borris Johnson and what's happened in the UK. Even Kemi Badonoch is a hardliner, and she was fucking burried by her own staff.
I don't agree with the calculation here, because I don't think the Independent is both a +1/-1 , rather than a -1 , or a -1/+1 to Greens. I also don't think those independents are anywhere near as hostile to Trump as you claim.
That's not going to change with DeSantis, as there is continued migration from illegals and the Californication of Austin. I'd say Trump's a better choice in Texas because he can drive up the base that outnumber the independents of Texas substantially and win over anti-Communist hispanics.
I think that Trump plays well in all of those places. The problem in all of those places is that the Democratic Party is clearly playing smash-mouth with election interference. Yes, I'm good and god damned sure it's not "youth voter turnout", "abortion", and "no one cares about crime" that's helping the Dems. The single greatest determining factor for how you vote is when you vote. Registered Democrats who vote on voting day are more likely to vote Republican than Registered Republicans who vote absentee or mail in. And apparently: no Republican alive has ever voted in Early Voting. ... that... doesn't make sense from an issues basis. That indicates a huge problem with fraud.
DeSantis will have exactly all the same problems, he will be treated as a stand-in for Trump so he will have all the same negatives as Trump, but will not have the charisma or base support. Which means I see him losing most if not all of those states, possibly even Wisconsin because he'll be lacking GOP and Trump-only voter turnout, regardless of fraud. The only one that's up in the air is Arizona, in so much that someone in the AZ GOP has to literally start busing Republican voters into Democratic polling stations just to confuse the shit out of the AG's office in how they are conducting fraud.
And that's where we basically agree. Ballot harvesting, driving around voters, mixing up early and in-person voting (if that's even a viable strategy), all in order to confuse the shit out of the fraud operation. It's not voters that are the problem in those areas. AZ, GA, PA, MI are all going to be lost to the Dems if the Republicans don't counter their fraud strategy, and the GOPe is fully prepared to lose the 2024 election at all available costs to stop populism, including funding DeSantis to beat Trump, and then defunding DeSantis to lose against "literally who". I would expect criminal investigations into DeSantis demanded by the people who are donating to him right now.
Ok I am sorry to say this but what you wrote is pure Trump cultism.
Trump is definitely vehemently hated more by independents.
Trump will struggle in the sunbelt states compared to DeSantis. Trump is a horrible fit for Texas. Having him and Cruz at the same time on the same ballot is a complete nightmare.
Most conservatives in Texas are boomer cons who truly dislike Trump and Cruz's unnecessarily offensive personality.
Trump has no viable path to victory when he is guaranteed to lose Arizona and Georgia. He would need Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to compensate and no Republican is going to be winning Michigan anytime soon and Trump is not going to be able to beat the fraud in PA when he keeps calling for his base to do only election day voting. Trump suppresses his own turnout.
DeSantis' electoral path is relatively easier. All he has to do is narrowly win AZ, GA and WI.
Trump refuses to start a ballot harvesting operation in swing states and he refuses to get his voters to start voting early. We need to embrace early voting in order to prevent a redux of how Arizona was stolen for Kari Lake in 2022 when on election day the machines in Maricopa county broke. That disproportionately hurt Republican turnout.
DeSantis understands the importance of ballot harvesting and he will adapt to use it when necessary. Trump is too deadset in complaining about the stolen election and refuses to do what must be done to win again.
You somehow think Trump is the only one who can avoid being subverted when the biggest issue is that he likely won't win again in the first place.
I rather win with DeSantis and believe that he can avoid being subverted than run Trump again and watch him lose and let Biden easily get a second term.
Hey, I didn't call you a DeSantis cultist, and you should already be well aware that I'm not a cultist either.
This doesn't sound like Texas to me. Maybe Austin. I know some Lefties in Texas, but I've seen the Trump flags in the suburbs in Texas.
I still don't see why you believe this. DeSantis will be effected by the exact same fraud, and will be exactly just as hated by independents that listen to NPR, but will not have the charisma, personality, or name recognition that brought Trump's base out.
I don't know that early voting is a good idea because the statistics are so strange for early voting. It seems like no republican is early voting, and I don't know if that means that those Republican votes are being thrown away or not. The correct path is to bus Republican voters to Democratic poling stations in Arizona because you can still do that. I don't know about this "Trump refuses to start ballot harvesting". I doubt he's refused to do much of anything.
No, I think he's less likely to be subverted because the man has shown to hold grudges and absolutely piss in the mouth of his enemies that fuck him over (see his Scottish golf course nonsense). And I do not see the evidence that he likely won't win (outside of fraud and GOPe sabotage). And it is fair to say that Trump's biggest risk is the GOPe intentionally throwing the election to kill populism, but I don't see how that would be any less likely under DeSantis.