Trump separated himself from the pack in 2016 by campaigning on building the wall, deporting illegals, draining the swamp, and locking up Hillary.
If he tries running on the same or similar issues this time around, the stench of bullshit will be too much to ignore except for his most devoted followers.
IMO, he'll probably run on "I'm not Biden," and I'm sure with how bad Biden is, he'll win just off of that.
The sad part is, this will be another wasted election to try and get an actual change candidate who won't sell out as much. Too bad Rand Paul has a terrible sense of what grassroots Republican voters want. Last time around, he was pandering to try in bring in more black voters. Fucking eh, what a mess.
This one might be easier said than done, due to the strangeness of the issue. Basically, everything we have seen thus far show that the majority of people, Left, Right, and Center, acknowledge that we are in a proxy war with Russia, but also say “That’s a good thing.” Their only real concerns I have found come from “What if it goes nuclear?” and “I like weapons, but why so much money?”
It’s one of those that I know rankles people on this board, but all of the evidence show the average American is very much on team “Fuck Russia, Slava Ukraine”. Before we continue, it is worth pointing out that while feelings are strong, it’s not so strong it will ruin anyones support. Which is why Rand Paul can take the radical (to the average) opinion of stopping support and not really move the needle on his popularity.
If Trump, or anyone else, wants to fulfill the standard of stopping the war, they would have do these things (as I have found):
Continue the weapon shipment, or even increase them. As most people I have talked to are in favor of even heavier firepower like tanks, jets, and cruise missiles. One absolute mad lad I met even suggested giving Ukraine their nukes back, but that was radical in the other direction from what I have found.
Stop money payments. It’s easy to corruption away money, a lot harder with physical supplies.
While finding peace is preferable, not at the expense of throwing Ukraine to the wolves. So any peace can’t let Ukraine just be turned into some rump state, and must be allowed to be a threat to Russia long term.
Russia must bleed. As long as Putin is in charge, people want to see him swing from a post, and won’t take no for an answer. Or at least isolate him from the global community (which I am sure the Ruskies are also fine with).
Make it obvious to China that if they try anything with Taiwan, they will suffer the same fate as above, or worse. Since most people still see China as the larger threat.
Very tall order, might be impossible. But if anyone can do it, it would probably be Trump (since he calmed both N.Korea and the Middle East), and not enough people think he is some Russian puppet to keep him from election.
Keep in mind that talking to people in real life (or on forums linked to their real identity) is going to introduce natural bias, because we HAVE to support Ukraine. You're not hearing opposition. If Ukraine wasn't the Current Thing the media was telling us to care about, you'd meet more people who don't care about either of those countries and don't want us involved. You might even find a few who like or respect Putin. But those opinions are unacceptable for patriotic Americans to have.
But these are people who distrust the media and wouldnt piss on a reporter if they were on fire. It has nothing to do with Ukraine being the Current Thing. It has to do with people genuinely enraged, mostly driven by them seeking out their own information with direct battlefield video and reporting (that never even touches the media in many cases), Many of them even go further than what the Media says.
In fact, I know people who were being tepid in the days before the invasion saying that it was a bad idea to keep poking the bear and that we should back off. Then the second Russian tanks rolled across the border, they said "I changed my mind. BURN RUSSIA TO THE GROUND!" I have also heard many a "the line must be drawn here" and comparing it to the Nazi's invading Poland, and how the French and British were cowards for not doing more and "We are going to show those Limey bastards and Frogs what a real ally looks like."
Same with the polling and surveys on the matter. Its one thing when you get a contentious issue, or one that is controversial. But when there is almost 70% approval across the board, that is not controversial and shows a definitive political direction.
I know its not what they want to hear, but the people on here are actually in the minority on the issue, by far.
EDIT: Another thing I just thought of. The media has been through about 3 or 4 different "Current Things" since Ukraine was invaded, but the support for Ukraine has remained high. Which tells me that rather than it being a media propped up "Current Thing", it was a genuine reaction that the media just happened to be on the same side as the general public on.