Republicans may still win it this election
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Bro you are linking CNN.
A red wave is not only possible. It's guaranteed. Polling always under-reports R support and yet the Republicans have pulled clearly ahead.
If the polling says R +2, you can bet they're ahead by way more than that.
Polls always under-report R support but polling is extremely off this year.
Consider this: Ann Selzer once regarded as the best pollster in Iowa only has Chuck Grassley up by 3 points against a no name Dem called Michael Franken.
Chuck Grassley will win by ten points at the least.
Polls this year look as bad as they did in Dewey vs Truman.
If Rs are up 1.6 in the rcp generic ballot, then in reality this is going to be anywhere from a R+3 - R+5 year,
You forget about the 100,000 unnamed democrat voters that will vote at 3 AM
In a post 2020 world, polls are no longer predictions, they're statements of intent
I never underestimate the Republican's ability to grasp defeat from the jaws of victory.
Even if they do, the republican party isn't going to do anything with power. They'll faff about, talk big and accomplish nothing of importance.
people like you accomplish nothing but demoralizing the Right and suppressing voter turnout and enthusiasm, thereby helping the Left.
"Just vote harder you guys!"
Could you post some more pictures of your wife's tits? I'm on break in 30 minutes.
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Thank you, Agent Khajit.
My personal prediction is that the Republicans win anywhere from 15-30 seats in the house and will absolutely flip it red.
My personal prediction for the Senate is a net gain of anywhere from 1-3 Senate seats.
Out of the swing state senate races my guess is that Oz in PA and Laxalt in NV will win even if it is by narrow margins.
I think the race between Warnock and Walker in GA is a pure tossup and the race between Mark Kelly and Blake Masters in AZ is a pure tossup.
I think JD Vance in OH, Ted Budd in NC, Ron Johnson in WI and Marco Rubio in FL will all win by decently high margins(anywhere from +4 to + 8)
I think the Republicans will ultimately take back both the House and the Senate.
R will retake the house easily, it's just a question of how big the margin will be.
The Senate is harder because even though R sentiment is good, a few of the R candidates are fucking garbage, like Walker and Oz. They still MIGHT win but holy shit what a way to throw away a big advantage.
And we have Trump to thank for the bad candidates since he shilled hard for them in the primaries and then when they started losing in the polls he distanced himself.
Oz will clutch it out against Fetterman. I am much more bullish on Oz recently.
Walker is in a pure toss up race against Warnock atm. Walker did fine in the debate and likely assuaged the concerns of squishy center right voters in the Atlanta suburbs.
If Kemp wins >55 percent of the vote for governor against Abrams, his coat-tails should carry Walker to victory without a runoff election.
I think the Rs will ultimately take the Senate this year, the only question is by how many seats.
I am guessing anywhere from a net gain of 1 Senate seat to 3 Senate seats.
I hope so. Fetterman is a total fake-working-class-grifter and stroked the fuck out.
Yes I heard he closed the gap but he's been just one scandal after the next. I hope he wins, but God damn the man isn't remotely what a "vetted" candidate should look like. I get that the Right wants "outsiders" but we need to invest in an operation cultivating new candidates then.
Yes that should help.
538 has them set to lose but I think if we get a bigger red wave than predicted, which should be pretty obvious by now, there should be at least 1 or 2 upset wins and we finally get the Senate.
The Senate is more important than the House since it controls the all-important judicial nominees and executive appointments.
Nate Silver and 538 are trash.
They include blatant fake polls from Lincoln project scum like the CenterStreet PAC into their polling averages and use their Dem inflated polling averages to say Dems are very favored for the Senate.
Nonsense.
I think Republicans likely win NV and PA getting us to 51 Senate seats and thus gain control of the Senate.
AZ and GA Senate remain pure tossups that Rs can hopefully win.
I agree Nate Silver and 538 have a lib bias, they're just the main source used by a lot of the lib media.
RCP average is not perfect but is vastly better than 538.
Nate Silver would have no political career if the Obama campaign didn't leak him internal polls which he used to make his "predictions" in 2008 and 2012. Nate Silver is a complete talentless hack.
A 2010 size swing is sadly going to be difficult to achieve even though the 2022 environment is truly much worse for the Dems due to the three following reasons:
This year the Republicans already are starting with 212 seats. To get back to a majority of 242 seats, they only need to gain 30 seats.
A lot of the seats they gained in 2010 were generally Republican held seats they only lost due to the large Obama 2008 electoral win over McCain. This year they are starting off from a much better position so there are less realistically winnable seats.
Democrats in 2010 used to have more rural voters and less suburban voters while Republicans in 2010 used to have more suburban voters and less rural voters.
Republicans in 2022 rely more now on rural voters and less on suburban voters. Democrats in 2022 rely more now on urban voters and suburban voters and they barely have any rural voters.
Rural turnout generally tends to be lower in midterm years than in presidential years which is a slight disadvantage for the party that relies more on rural voters.
Suburban voters also generally donate lots of money to political parties.
Dems are benefiting from that fundraising this year and thus Dems have much more money for campaigns in 2022 that they just didn't have in 2010.
If the rurals turn out massively this year, it would help a lot in mitigating coalition disadvantages! Republicans will likely see some suburban voter reversion this year in places like the DFW suburbs in Texas and Maricopa suburbs in Arizona which is good news!
Good news is that I still expect the Republicans to have a very solid wave election year(anywhere from R+3 -R+5)
2010 was an amazing R+6.8 year which would be hard to replicate this year.