We’re hoping that by some miracle, winter in Europe is extremely mild. But don’t forget, there’s still going to be significant economic damage, much of it exported to the countries that will not be getting that incremental carrier of liquid natural gas. Look at what’s going on in Pakistan today and at what happened in Sri Lanka. As is always the case, the emerging world suffers when the Western world burps. And it’s quite the burp that we have going on in Europe today.
Company CEOs and union leaders are now speaking openly about their fears. "The worst is yet to come," says CEO Klaus-Dieter Maubach of the German natural gas import giant Uniper, referring to energy prices. And Yasmin Fahimi, head of the powerful DGB union, warned in an interview with DER SPIEGEL that if the government doesn't take swift countermeasures, there is a risk of domino effect that could lead to the de-industrialization of Germany. "That would be a disaster."
The question is no longer whether the crisis will come. The question is how bad it will be and how long it will last....
Alexander Becker is desperate. "We really don't know what to do anymore," says the CEO of the Georgsmarienhütte Group (GMH). "We're in a state of shock." The company is one of Germany's larger steel producers. With 21 facilities, 6,000 employees, its own foundries and forgers – and a power requirement of 1 terawatt hour of electricity a year. That's more than the electricity consumption of 300,000 single-family homes. Last year, the company paid 120 million euros for electricity and gas. If prices remain at current levels, costs will rocket to 1.2 billion euros next year. At worst, a loss of 1 billion euros would be incurred in the coming year. "We would be bankrupt immediately," Becker says.
Rival Arcelor Mittal, on the other hand, has given up for the time being. The company recently announced that it would be shutting down two production facilities indefinitely in Hamburg and Bremen due to the "exorbitant rise in energy prices." This had been compounded by weak market demand and a negative economic outlook. The company said it was no longer economically viable to operate all of its plants.
Healthy companies may be able to handle such promotions for a few weeks. But companies already suffering from financial difficulties, like the major department store chain Galeria Karstadt Kaufhof (GKK), are expecting a very tough winter. They simply can no longer afford discount battles. The company, which has already gone through insolvency and is being propped up by the government to the tune of 700 million euros, is seeing its reserves melt away.
Many companies are unlikely to survive. In August alone, the number of insolvencies among corporations and partnerships, mostly medium-sized firms, grew by a quarter year-on-year. For October, Steffen Müller of the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Halle predicts an increase of one-third compared to 2021. And this doesn't even take into account the increased energy costs and inflation. Müller expects a structural change in the German economy. Due to the long-term cost increases in energy, wages, intermediate products and interest rates on loans, "some business models are just no longer sustainable." Müller says that weak companies "are now getting flushed out of the market."
Being an occupied country without sovereignty has a price. Prostituting yourself to the world's bully and terrorist has a price.
FYI: "making it through the winter" as a supposedly first world country is no great achievement. And high gas prices are going to lead the German economy to get absolutely wrecked, since it has so many energy-intensive industries. And that's not even considering the second- and third order consequences of all this. Raising the interest rates is going to lead to Southern Europe getting wrecked as well, just to get inflation under control. Who holds a lot of that debts? You guess. All of Europe will go up in flames. And for what? So that Americans can hold on to their empire.
I posted a well-researched source which relies on hard numbers and statistics. You replied with an obsolete op-ed parroting quotes of people expressing fear and panic in response to former high prices which have since come down. A few cherry picked quotes of panic do not refute the fact that Germany's stockpile is already fully supplied for the winter.
The prices of natural gas spiked from July to August as EU countries went on a buying frenzy to fill their stockpiles for the winter. However, with their stockpiles now full, the price has dropped precipitously and continues to fall. Here is proof:
Aug 22 peak 9.28, now sitting at 6.93, a 25% decline. 1 year ago, the price was 5.6, so not much of a change, and Germany can charge whatever it wants for stockpile releases.
Didn't know all problems were solved in the past few weeks.
A few cherry picked quotes of panic do not refute the fact that Germany's stockpile is already fully supplied for the winter.
The 'stockpile', even if 100% filled, would not be nearly enough to fulfill Germany's energy needs.
The prices of natural gas spiked from July to August as EU countries went on a buying frenzy to fill their stockpiles for the winter. However, with their stockpiles now full, the price has dropped precipitously and continues to fall. Here is proof:
Dude, commodity prices are not the same as the prices charged to consumers (and producers). The latter is still going up despite falling commodity prices. Everyone is complaining about it, inflation is at absolutely dizzying heights unknown since World War II, companies are going out of business daily.
It's an absolute mess, and you are the "this is fine" cartoon. Or rather, it is fine for you. You're not waging a proxy war against your primary supplier of energy. So maybe you are Leslie Nielsen saying everything's fine. Let them suffer for my empire.
The 'stockpile', even if 100% filled, would not be nearly enough to fulfill Germany's energy needs.
It 100% would. My source proved that with facts. At current usage and export levels, the existing stockpile will not even drop below 45%. If you have contrary evidence based on current stockpile levels and usage levels, I'd be happy to review it, but your baseless opinion doesn't mean anything.
Dude, commodity prices are not the same as the prices charged to consumers (and producers). The latter is still going up despite falling commodity prices.
Do you have any evidence or links or am I supposed to just take your word for it? Prices have in fact begun to come down in September after rising in August, and this is true of retail cost as well as commodity prices. Some people are complaining and the prices are still elevated, but this has to do with many factors and is outside the scope of the point I'm making ITT.
It's an absolute mess, and you are the "this is fine" cartoon.
Again, no. You're bringing up irrelevancies that have nothing to do with my simple, singular point. If you would like to know my point, refer to thread title.
You're not waging a proxy war against your primary supplier of energy.
Russia is not Germany's primary supplier or energy, or actually any kind of supplier at all. Germany stopped oil imports from Russia by April. and stopped reduced natural gas in late August. The chart shows that Germany has simply replaced russian imports with other sources. Source
At current usage and export levels, the existing stockpile will not even drop below 45%.
That is assuming continuous imports. Do you not know what percentage of energy usage the stockpile would cover?
Prices have in fact begun to come down in September after rising in August, and this is true of retail cost
Is it?
Again, no. You're bringing up irrelevancies that have nothing to do with my simple, singular point. If you would like to know my point, refer to thread title.
'Make it through the winter' could mean literally anything. As long as Germany doesn't collapse into Trizonia or something, then you'll say: hey, its GDP declined by 10%, unemployment is at 15%, but the state still exists.
Russia is not Germany's primary supplier or energy, or actually any kind of supplier at all. Germany stopped oil imports from Russia by April. and stopped reduced natural gas in late August. The chart shows that Germany has simply replaced russian imports with other sources. Source
This is oil.
The chart starts in Jan 2022, when Putin had already reduced gas supplies as he had done throughout 2021. And even there, you can see that it's either the largest or one of the two largest.
"targets" and scenarios are nice but they ignore political realities.
Germany doesn't have gas. Various foreign and German companies in Germany have gas. It's their gas. Europe has a Europe-wide gas market. Meaning this gas isn't reserved for Germany. It will be sold to whoever pays for it.
Also, Germany will have to supply gas to its neighbors if those run out. The German government already made treaties with various neighbors to supply gas if they have shortages.
And then there's the issue that we are currently using MORE gas than the years before. Weekly gas usage is currently above the average usage of the last 4 years.
And then there's the issue that we are currently using MORE gas than the years before. Weekly gas usage is current above the average usage of the last 4 years.
That is not what my linked source says: "So far this year, “Household & Business” has on average used 13% less gas than an average year, while “Industry” customers are down 12.4% from the norm."
Household & Business are up 10%. Industry is only down 2%. Combine both and we're up like what? 6-ish% (industry uses more gas in total)?
Edit: Maybe those numbers were correct during the hot summer but we went straight from mid-summer to cold-and-wet autumn, skipping over a warm late-summer. People had to start heating earlier than usual.
You can't use 1 week of usually cold weather to prove a trend. September 28 in Germany has an average historical high of 63 degrees, and last week it was only 50 degrees. Huge difference. So of course gas usage temporarily went up.
The source I linked is using the broader data from this year, not looking at 1 week and pretending that that week is representative when your link openly says it is not.
Also temperatures returned to historical averages after a few days, so there is no proof that cold weather is here to stay.
The Federal Network Agency warned that Germany could be faced with gas shortages this winter if consumption is not reduced by at least 20%. Instead, use jumped 10% last week, alarming experts.
The authorities in Germany are being overly cautious/fearful and trying to shame society into even more conservation than is already happening "just in case". We JUST saw this behavior with COVID and Germans have a hard on for excessive conservation.
"could be faced with gas shortages this winter if consumption is not reduced by at least 20%"
Yes they are outright lying, though they used "could" instead of "will" meaning that they're admitting that they're full of shit. Just like how they lied constantly during COVID to try to force the populace to behave the way they wanted.
And what do you think these percentages represent? Facts? Hahahah no. These percentages are arbitrary opinions. Whose opinion? Whoever decided on the propaganda push to try to shame Germans into greater conservation.
My link has already made it crystal clear that there will be no shortages even if conservation stops.
What happened was that the weather was UNUSUALLY cold last week, and so the German government saw a spike in gas usage and freaked the fuck out without adjusting for the disparity in the weather.
Posting this here for reference so people stop believing this nonsense about how Europe is going to supposedly suffer this winter because Russia turned off the gas.
The “Normal Usage” is the same line as shown on the above export reduction graph. This scenario assumes that German gas exports stay around the current levels, heavily reduced from earlier in the year. On top of this though there is no usage reduction in gas compared to the average gas usage data over the past 4 years.
The next four scenarios assume different reductions in the gas usage by customers classed as “Household & Business” and “Industry”. “Household & Business” customers are defined by an annual gas usage of below 1.5 GW while “Industry” are customers with a annual gas usage above this. Unsurprisingly the larger the reduction in consumption among these customers, the more likely Germany is to reach its targets.
The final scenario takes into account the current average reduction in gas usage from the norm among both “Household & Business” and “Industry” customers. So far this year, “Household & Business” has on average used 13% less gas than an average year, while “Industry” customers are down 12.4% from the norm.
Translation: the broken pink line at the top is usage at CURRENT levels. The stockpile never drops below 45%. The bottom blue line which bottoms out at 10% storage is what would happen if Germans increased their gas usage to historic levels instead of trying to conserve.
And here's some reality, as opposed to cope.
https://archive.ph/f7rpB
https://archive.ph/7CQ5z
Being an occupied country without sovereignty has a price. Prostituting yourself to the world's bully and terrorist has a price.
FYI: "making it through the winter" as a supposedly first world country is no great achievement. And high gas prices are going to lead the German economy to get absolutely wrecked, since it has so many energy-intensive industries. And that's not even considering the second- and third order consequences of all this. Raising the interest rates is going to lead to Southern Europe getting wrecked as well, just to get inflation under control. Who holds a lot of that debts? You guess. All of Europe will go up in flames. And for what? So that Americans can hold on to their empire.
I posted a well-researched source which relies on hard numbers and statistics. You replied with an obsolete op-ed parroting quotes of people expressing fear and panic in response to former high prices which have since come down. A few cherry picked quotes of panic do not refute the fact that Germany's stockpile is already fully supplied for the winter.
The prices of natural gas spiked from July to August as EU countries went on a buying frenzy to fill their stockpiles for the winter. However, with their stockpiles now full, the price has dropped precipitously and continues to fall. Here is proof:
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas
Aug 22 peak 9.28, now sitting at 6.93, a 25% decline. 1 year ago, the price was 5.6, so not much of a change, and Germany can charge whatever it wants for stockpile releases.
Didn't know all problems were solved in the past few weeks.
The 'stockpile', even if 100% filled, would not be nearly enough to fulfill Germany's energy needs.
Dude, commodity prices are not the same as the prices charged to consumers (and producers). The latter is still going up despite falling commodity prices. Everyone is complaining about it, inflation is at absolutely dizzying heights unknown since World War II, companies are going out of business daily.
It's an absolute mess, and you are the "this is fine" cartoon. Or rather, it is fine for you. You're not waging a proxy war against your primary supplier of energy. So maybe you are Leslie Nielsen saying everything's fine. Let them suffer for my empire.
It 100% would. My source proved that with facts. At current usage and export levels, the existing stockpile will not even drop below 45%. If you have contrary evidence based on current stockpile levels and usage levels, I'd be happy to review it, but your baseless opinion doesn't mean anything.
Do you have any evidence or links or am I supposed to just take your word for it? Prices have in fact begun to come down in September after rising in August, and this is true of retail cost as well as commodity prices. Some people are complaining and the prices are still elevated, but this has to do with many factors and is outside the scope of the point I'm making ITT.
Again, no. You're bringing up irrelevancies that have nothing to do with my simple, singular point. If you would like to know my point, refer to thread title.
Russia is not Germany's primary supplier or energy, or actually any kind of supplier at all. Germany stopped oil imports from Russia by April. and stopped reduced natural gas in late August. The chart shows that Germany has simply replaced russian imports with other sources. Source
That is assuming continuous imports. Do you not know what percentage of energy usage the stockpile would cover?
Is it?
'Make it through the winter' could mean literally anything. As long as Germany doesn't collapse into Trizonia or something, then you'll say: hey, its GDP declined by 10%, unemployment is at 15%, but the state still exists.
"targets" and scenarios are nice but they ignore political realities.
Germany doesn't have gas. Various foreign and German companies in Germany have gas. It's their gas. Europe has a Europe-wide gas market. Meaning this gas isn't reserved for Germany. It will be sold to whoever pays for it.
Also, Germany will have to supply gas to its neighbors if those run out. The German government already made treaties with various neighbors to supply gas if they have shortages.
And then there's the issue that we are currently using MORE gas than the years before. Weekly gas usage is currently above the average usage of the last 4 years.
That is not what my linked source says: "So far this year, “Household & Business” has on average used 13% less gas than an average year, while “Industry” customers are down 12.4% from the norm."
Then that source is wrong: https://www-faz-net.translate.goog/aktuell/wirtschaft/gasverbrauch-steigt-zu-stark-laut-bundesnetzagentur-18366730.html?_x_tr_sl=de&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Household & Business are up 10%. Industry is only down 2%. Combine both and we're up like what? 6-ish% (industry uses more gas in total)?
Edit: Maybe those numbers were correct during the hot summer but we went straight from mid-summer to cold-and-wet autumn, skipping over a warm late-summer. People had to start heating earlier than usual.
He tells me one thing, she tells me another. Seven hells, what am I to make of this?
You can't use 1 week of usually cold weather to prove a trend. September 28 in Germany has an average historical high of 63 degrees, and last week it was only 50 degrees. Huge difference. So of course gas usage temporarily went up.
The source I linked is using the broader data from this year, not looking at 1 week and pretending that that week is representative when your link openly says it is not.
Also temperatures returned to historical averages after a few days, so there is no proof that cold weather is here to stay.
There seems to be a lot of dispute about this: https://www.dw.com/en/germans-using-too-much-gas-could-face-emergency-later-authorities-warn/a-63364481
The authorities in Germany are being overly cautious/fearful and trying to shame society into even more conservation than is already happening "just in case". We JUST saw this behavior with COVID and Germans have a hard on for excessive conservation.
So they're outright lying about those percentages?
"could be faced with gas shortages this winter if consumption is not reduced by at least 20%"
Yes they are outright lying, though they used "could" instead of "will" meaning that they're admitting that they're full of shit. Just like how they lied constantly during COVID to try to force the populace to behave the way they wanted.
And what do you think these percentages represent? Facts? Hahahah no. These percentages are arbitrary opinions. Whose opinion? Whoever decided on the propaganda push to try to shame Germans into greater conservation.
My link has already made it crystal clear that there will be no shortages even if conservation stops.
What happened was that the weather was UNUSUALLY cold last week, and so the German government saw a spike in gas usage and freaked the fuck out without adjusting for the disparity in the weather.
Hmm, thanks for the reply. If that ends up being true there's an analyst I mostly trust who I won't any more.
Source: https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/germanys-gas-supply-looking-better
Posting this here for reference so people stop believing this nonsense about how Europe is going to supposedly suffer this winter because Russia turned off the gas.
Translation: the broken pink line at the top is usage at CURRENT levels. The stockpile never drops below 45%. The bottom blue line which bottoms out at 10% storage is what would happen if Germans increased their gas usage to historic levels instead of trying to conserve.