Source: https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/germanys-gas-supply-looking-better

Posting this here for reference so people stop believing this nonsense about how Europe is going to supposedly suffer this winter because Russia turned off the gas.

The “Normal Usage” is the same line as shown on the above export reduction graph. This scenario assumes that German gas exports stay around the current levels, heavily reduced from earlier in the year. On top of this though there is no usage reduction in gas compared to the average gas usage data over the past 4 years.

The next four scenarios assume different reductions in the gas usage by customers classed as “Household & Business” and “Industry”. “Household & Business” customers are defined by an annual gas usage of below 1.5 GW while “Industry” are customers with a annual gas usage above this. Unsurprisingly the larger the reduction in consumption among these customers, the more likely Germany is to reach its targets.

The final scenario takes into account the current average reduction in gas usage from the norm among both “Household & Business” and “Industry” customers. So far this year, “Household & Business” has on average used 13% less gas than an average year, while “Industry” customers are down 12.4% from the norm.

Translation: the broken pink line at the top is usage at CURRENT levels. The stockpile never drops below 45%. The bottom blue line which bottoms out at 10% storage is what would happen if Germans increased their gas usage to historic levels instead of trying to conserve.