Does this guy have a solid record of predicting past Senate elections? Polls are worthless unless they have a good record of predicting the results. Which is why MSM polls are a running joke. If they were accurate the Republicans would never win any elections. And yes, we all know that MSM polls are propaganda instead of predictions but the normies don't.
He correctly predicted Trump 2016 and all the major senate races in 2016.
His polls correctly predicted nearly every Senate race in 2020. He got Maine Senate and NC right when no one else other than Trafalgar polling did. Baris only got the Georgia runoffs wrong by a point.
Also his polls were off during Trump 2020 by a point in only WI, PA, AZ, GA. We know what type of fortification happened in those states in 2020.
The large majority of pollsters undercount the right wing voters, and this happened in a big way in 2016 and 2020. Hopefully this guy has a good method to account for the difference.
How did they mess up so badly in 16 and 20? I know bias comes into play but in 20 for instance some had Biden winning states by double digits that ended up being razor thin
They did it intentionally. MSM polling exists to suppress Republican voting and create the Dem narrative so when a Republican wins, they can yell Russian collusion.
No one knows exactly, but since the lib media screeches REPUBLICANS BAAAAD, TRUMPERS BAAAAD, MAGA REPUBLICANS = LITERAL TERRORISTS, the result is that a significant fraction of right wingers are more likely to hang up when they get called by pollsters.
Does this guy have a solid record of predicting past Senate elections? Polls are worthless unless they have a good record of predicting the results. Which is why MSM polls are a running joke. If they were accurate the Republicans would never win any elections. And yes, we all know that MSM polls are propaganda instead of predictions but the normies don't.
Baris is the best pollster in America.
He correctly predicted Trump 2016 and all the major senate races in 2016.
His polls correctly predicted nearly every Senate race in 2020. He got Maine Senate and NC right when no one else other than Trafalgar polling did. Baris only got the Georgia runoffs wrong by a point.
Also his polls were off during Trump 2020 by a point in only WI, PA, AZ, GA. We know what type of fortification happened in those states in 2020.
Baris's predictions are right way more than not.
The large majority of pollsters undercount the right wing voters, and this happened in a big way in 2016 and 2020. Hopefully this guy has a good method to account for the difference.
Baris knows how to account for the often missed right wing Rural voters.
His polls have been very close to the final result during 2016 and 2020.
Polls are for shaping public opinion, not assessing it.
How did they mess up so badly in 16 and 20? I know bias comes into play but in 20 for instance some had Biden winning states by double digits that ended up being razor thin
They did it intentionally. MSM polling exists to suppress Republican voting and create the Dem narrative so when a Republican wins, they can yell Russian collusion.
Fucking A! This was made clear to me in 2016 and 2020.
Publicly released polls are meant to influence opinion, not report it.
That’s why “internal numbers” are a thing.
No one knows exactly, but since the lib media screeches REPUBLICANS BAAAAD, TRUMPERS BAAAAD, MAGA REPUBLICANS = LITERAL TERRORISTS, the result is that a significant fraction of right wingers are more likely to hang up when they get called by pollsters.
Yep Baris called this the Shy Trumper effect.
Trump outperformed the polls vastly in nearly every state because the Dems made it not socially acceptable to announce you support him.