TLDR = Your risk of dying of COVID (if you catch it) is approximately equal to you dying of everything else in a given year.

We know well that the risk of death from COVID increases with age, but what is your risk, and how much risk is that from dying vs. other causes? I took a random sampling of 1 million COVID cases ranging in age from mid teens to 80s and the number of reported deaths for that group and compared it to CDC data from all deaths in 2018.

First for COVID:

To my surprise, the data fit an exponential function nearly perfectly. (% chance of death) = 0.006569417387EXP(0.0955814AGE). A random 25 year old, the chances of dying from catching COVID is 0.07%. a random 65 year old the chances of dying is 3.3%. At 85, the risk is 22.2%!

Keep in mind these numbers are for a random person, who might be obese with COPD, cancer and etc. If you are a healthy 25 year old then a personal risk is likely less than the 0.07% listed above, but if you do fit into those co-morbidity categories then your risk might be higher. Remember that risk is only if a person catches COVID, not as a random person who may or may not.

Now for all other causes:

Now lets compare the risk of death vs. other causes. I took CDC data from deaths per 100k in 2018 (pre COVID obviously) and made another exponential fit. It wasn’t quite as perfect, but still very good. The equation I got was: (% chance of death) =0.02519129EXP(0.07410344AGE. So a random 25, 65, and 85 year old would have a 0.16%, 3.11%, and 13.7% Chance of dying in a year. In this case there is less one can do to prevent death (it applies to everyone), like car accidents, etc, although not being in a gang or a drug addict certainly helps.

I was surprised at how closely the two exponential fits were to each other, and the crossover point is at about 60, where chance of dying of COVID (assuming one gets it) is larger than dying of all other causes. Of course, if I were 70, I’d probably risk the vax since a 5.3% chance of dying from contracting COVID added to a 4.5% chance of dying from all other causes is significant.

So one can see all the fear, lockdowns, and governmental over reach is all for nothing. Yes elderly people need to protect themselves, but if EVERYONE contracted COVID it would roughly double the number of deaths in a given year, then be over with, and it would be mostly people who are at the most risk of dying anyway.

Would be happy to take questions, or if you can poke holes in my analysis would appreciate that as well.