TLDR = Your risk of dying of COVID (if you catch it) is approximately equal to you dying of everything else in a given year.
We know well that the risk of death from COVID increases with age, but what is your risk, and how much risk is that from dying vs. other causes? I took a random sampling of 1 million COVID cases ranging in age from mid teens to 80s and the number of reported deaths for that group and compared it to CDC data from all deaths in 2018.
First for COVID:
To my surprise, the data fit an exponential function nearly perfectly. (% chance of death) = 0.006569417387EXP(0.0955814AGE). A random 25 year old, the chances of dying from catching COVID is 0.07%. a random 65 year old the chances of dying is 3.3%. At 85, the risk is 22.2%!
Keep in mind these numbers are for a random person, who might be obese with COPD, cancer and etc. If you are a healthy 25 year old then a personal risk is likely less than the 0.07% listed above, but if you do fit into those co-morbidity categories then your risk might be higher. Remember that risk is only if a person catches COVID, not as a random person who may or may not.
Now for all other causes:
Now lets compare the risk of death vs. other causes. I took CDC data from deaths per 100k in 2018 (pre COVID obviously) and made another exponential fit. It wasn’t quite as perfect, but still very good. The equation I got was: (% chance of death) =0.02519129EXP(0.07410344AGE. So a random 25, 65, and 85 year old would have a 0.16%, 3.11%, and 13.7% Chance of dying in a year. In this case there is less one can do to prevent death (it applies to everyone), like car accidents, etc, although not being in a gang or a drug addict certainly helps.
I was surprised at how closely the two exponential fits were to each other, and the crossover point is at about 60, where chance of dying of COVID (assuming one gets it) is larger than dying of all other causes. Of course, if I were 70, I’d probably risk the vax since a 5.3% chance of dying from contracting COVID added to a 4.5% chance of dying from all other causes is significant.
So one can see all the fear, lockdowns, and governmental over reach is all for nothing. Yes elderly people need to protect themselves, but if EVERYONE contracted COVID it would roughly double the number of deaths in a given year, then be over with, and it would be mostly people who are at the most risk of dying anyway.
Would be happy to take questions, or if you can poke holes in my analysis would appreciate that as well.
Here is a calculator for covid death risk developed by Oxford. Mine came out at 0.0007%. I guess I should stop driving and using stairs if I want to live.
This is much more detailed than my assessment and allows for tracking of a lot more variables than just age. Given what I said above and after playing around with it a bit, this does not disagree with what I said above. HOWEVER this appears to have risk of catching COVID in a 90 day period built in, wheras the above risk of death is once you have caught it.
Thank you very interesting.
Wow. A 0.0018% risk. Opress me harder for my "safety", daddy government.
0.0015%. Guess Im an old man or something. Death stalks me at every turn.
BUT IF IT SAVES JUST ONE LIFE
jesus, i have a better shot at getting hit by a meteorite than getting seriously sick from this coof
/u/randomuser88385, you need to escape your asterisks to keep them visible. Put a backslash in front of the special character to tell Markdown to display it rather than its effects (bookending text with asterisks makes italics).
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Thanks! Hopefully people who want to can figure it out.
The r^2 value on the COVID data was 0.999. I could hardly believe it was such a good fit. Although exponential functions are easy to fit well, it pretty much perfectly matches the data in the age range from ~20-50s
Even if you're 65, why would you willingly accept an added 3% chance of dying (multiplied by the likelihood of getting the disease) - even if there is a baseline 3% probability of dying?
This isn't an assessment on the safety or effectiveness of the vax itself, your argument could be construed as in favor of getting it.
Instead, your risk of dying from the coof at 65 (assume unvaxxed) is 3% if you get it. There is no acceptance of that risk, it just is. The only potential modifier of that risk is getting the vax (maybe?) or more effective treatment than what has been given.
He's a brick wall. Science and common sense aren't his forte.
Exactly, and when you actually look at the numbers, (Pfizer less than 42% effective) then you're only running a 4 in 10 chance of potential mitigation: https://www.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-just-143124782.html
Another thing to consider is AE and SAE rates.
This data is purposely hidden from the general public, so even if you are 75+ and decide to get the vax, you have no idea what the odds are of the messengers traveling and an SAE developing. Some sites tracking the cases based on public profiles seem to run the gamut of people of all ages, so technically the vax could raise your risk instead of lowering it.
I wish we had less restrictive data on how ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine worked with those 60+ who had contracted COVID, along with homeopathic remedies.
Yes it is abundantly clear that the vax does little to prevent infection. I'm mostly convinced that it does help mitigate serious illness. However it is clear that there are significant risks that are being covered up, and I believe that the vax does more harm than good in young healthy people.
Regarding ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine, "they" have done such a good job of using the media to obfuscate (amped up noise to drown out any signal) that I remain unconvinced of their effectiveness. I want to believe, but just not there for me yet (I've seen the Africa data, etc.).
I'm black pilled as fuck, but I'll be damned if me or my family gets the vax. We all had COVID and I'm done with it, I'm more immune than any vaxxed douche nozzle. I'd gladly go through it again than take the vax, it wasn't that bad.