Epistemic trespassing. My two favorite words in the English dictionary.
As a car enthusiast, I have had more than what I would call a 'fair share' of these retards blowing in from outside telling me what's going to happen to my industry. Many of them have names you would instantly recognize.
Neil Degrasse Tyson, for one, and his predictions towards society heading towards 99% self-driving cars by 2050. This is laughably wrong in many ways if you even understand the basics into how FSD works and its limitations.
Autopilot works well on airplanes because planes have an entire extra dimension to move about in, plus far less space occupied by other things. You won't find birds 30,000 feet in the air. Or hobbyists in Cessnas and autogyros. The only dangers that exist in commercial airliners at that height are component failure, deliberate sabotage or an ATC fucking it up.
FSD in cars already does not work very well as we saw with the Waymo destructions. A self-driving taxi cannot recognize when it is in danger. A rapefugee can immobilize one by just standing in front of it. Because unlike in a plane, this form of autopilot has to take on-board around 100 other factors on the fly. Traffic signals. Road signals, including temporary ones. Other cars, parked or otherwise. Cyclists. Buses. Motorcyclists. Pedestrians. Animals. It has to obey local rules and speed limits. It has to constantly scan around itself, second-by-second.
Furthermore, nowhere near 99% of people are going to consciously make the switch. Many people enjoy driving, especially older cars. Poorer families won't be able to afford an FSD model, and some conscious to the dangers of FSD won't want it.
This is obvious if you actually understand cars instead of blowing in from a completely different area of expertise and pretending that you do.
The only way FSD could even have a chance to take over is a network of vehicles that work in sync to ensure constant flow of traffic. No jackasses rubbernecking, running red lights, swerving lanes to get a few cars ahead, causing random stops and starts that are the main cause of traffic jams. Effectively you'll have just chained all cars together which would allow for more seamless travel in heavy traffic conditions.
But that's not going to work unless they start heavily pushing for all vehicles to be like this, otherwise you have too many vehicles not on the chain disrupting it, so people don't have a choice to buy what would later be called a manual vehicle, as in one you manually drive.
But also, as you point out, there are massive flaws that we cannot currently overcome with the technology we have. Now, maybe, sometimes in the future that might change, but I don't see it as feasible due to so many factors that can come up on the road that an FSD would not be capable of handling.
I have a friend, the only one i talk to who can drive. He doesn't like it at all. And i bet a lot of youngsters don't too since they grew up in an environment where owning a car and enjoying it is a luxury.
Epistemic trespassing. My two favorite words in the English dictionary.
As a car enthusiast, I have had more than what I would call a 'fair share' of these retards blowing in from outside telling me what's going to happen to my industry. Many of them have names you would instantly recognize.
Neil Degrasse Tyson, for one, and his predictions towards society heading towards 99% self-driving cars by 2050. This is laughably wrong in many ways if you even understand the basics into how FSD works and its limitations.
Autopilot works well on airplanes because planes have an entire extra dimension to move about in, plus far less space occupied by other things. You won't find birds 30,000 feet in the air. Or hobbyists in Cessnas and autogyros. The only dangers that exist in commercial airliners at that height are component failure, deliberate sabotage or an ATC fucking it up.
FSD in cars already does not work very well as we saw with the Waymo destructions. A self-driving taxi cannot recognize when it is in danger. A rapefugee can immobilize one by just standing in front of it. Because unlike in a plane, this form of autopilot has to take on-board around 100 other factors on the fly. Traffic signals. Road signals, including temporary ones. Other cars, parked or otherwise. Cyclists. Buses. Motorcyclists. Pedestrians. Animals. It has to obey local rules and speed limits. It has to constantly scan around itself, second-by-second.
Furthermore, nowhere near 99% of people are going to consciously make the switch. Many people enjoy driving, especially older cars. Poorer families won't be able to afford an FSD model, and some conscious to the dangers of FSD won't want it.
This is obvious if you actually understand cars instead of blowing in from a completely different area of expertise and pretending that you do.
The only way FSD could even have a chance to take over is a network of vehicles that work in sync to ensure constant flow of traffic. No jackasses rubbernecking, running red lights, swerving lanes to get a few cars ahead, causing random stops and starts that are the main cause of traffic jams. Effectively you'll have just chained all cars together which would allow for more seamless travel in heavy traffic conditions.
But that's not going to work unless they start heavily pushing for all vehicles to be like this, otherwise you have too many vehicles not on the chain disrupting it, so people don't have a choice to buy what would later be called a manual vehicle, as in one you manually drive.
But also, as you point out, there are massive flaws that we cannot currently overcome with the technology we have. Now, maybe, sometimes in the future that might change, but I don't see it as feasible due to so many factors that can come up on the road that an FSD would not be capable of handling.
I have a friend, the only one i talk to who can drive. He doesn't like it at all. And i bet a lot of youngsters don't too since they grew up in an environment where owning a car and enjoying it is a luxury.