Turkish Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan:
"As you know, after Iran, Israel cannot live without an enemy. It has to develop a rhetoric to influence public opinion and others. We see that not only the Netanyahu administration, but also some people in the opposition—not everyone, but some—are in pursuit of declaring Turkey a new enemy, in terms of political discourse. This is actually a new issue in Israel that is first brought up as a necessity of street politics, and then attempted to be transformed into a state strategy."
I've always suspected that Trump is trying to find a way to end NATO such that Turkey won't be included in what replaces it specifically so Israel can attack Turkey.
For those who don't know, part of Turkey is included in "Greater Israel".
They'll obviously go after Turkey so long as Erdogan remains charge, possibly even just if the AKP remains in charge. As for Greater Israel, I suspect that even more Leftist and Centrist groups like the CHP will fight any foreign group who tries to seize a part of Turkey, for the simple reason that nationalism is more powerful in Turkey than in most countries (due to Kemalism, etc.), even if it is often just rhetorical (e.g. Kilicdaroglu suddenly calling himself a 'nationalist' in his efforts to defeat Erdogan during the last presidential run-off).
Let's rewind to 2016 or so. Turkey seriously looked as though it was going to enter the EU.
It would have. For the 'Far-Right', that looked like an impending disaster at the time. Turks - all 85-90 million or so of them - would be able to move around much of Europe with little to no restriction.
But then there was a failed coup against the AKP. Then the AKP-led government won a 2017 referendum that switched Turkey's political system in a way that would prolong Erdogan's rule and give him more power.
The sense that Erdogan was some sort of 'Turkish Fuhrer' grew among the EU-types. Relations between Turkey and the European Union soured. Consequently, we were all spared from the Turks becoming part of the European Union. A case of being 'accidentally based'. All because 'muh fascism'.
But that is contingent on Erdogan and the AKP remaining in power. The EU loves the Kurds and most of their political movements (e.g. the Left-Wing HDP), the Left-liberal CHP, indeed, basically anyone and everyone that is non-aligned with Erdogan. If the 'conservative' AKP and its allies (e.g. the 'nationalist' MHP) leave power, you can rest assured that Turkey will enter the European Union very quickly.
This is why I have always been an Erdogan 'supporter' (yes, even if he does stupid things like calling Netanyahu 'Hitler'). I know what will happen if he leaves power. I want Erdogan and the AKP to rule Turkey for the indefinite future, because that is the only realistic way the EU won't admit Turkey.
Other than Slovakia's Smer-SD, and with PiS and Fidesz out of power, there is probably no ruling party anywhere that the EU hates more than the AKP. However, I think it is practically inevitable that Erdogan and the AKP will leave power and the pro-EU CHP are returned to power, with Turkey entering the EU shortly after.
That raises an interesting scenario: Israel aggressing against Turkey, by that point, an EU member state. In that sense, it might actually be in Israel's greatest interest to ensure that Turkey never joins the EU. Then again, Israel seems to be able to do whatever it wants even when the masses all across the political spectrum are growingly distasteful of it. Thus I suppose it is not impossible, the following scenario: Israel (with or without American help) invades this Turkey, the EU condemns it but does not actually do anything, Israel seizes chunks of Turkey and millions of Turks flee to Europe with Israel's encouragement (because, after all, they're essentially 'European' now, and no longer Turkish), and the rest of Turkey, knowing that it cannot defeat some sort of Israeli-American military force, renounces its ownership of the occupied areas to Israel.
Of course, this scenario relies on all sorts of factors, e.g. America continuing to be pro-Israel (insofar as the political classes are concerned, this seems highly likely); the EU actually doing nothing to help Turkey (some possibility); and Israel deciding that it can take on a country substantially more powerful than Lebanon or even Syria (with America on side, Turkey would clearly lose, but Turkey would be quite resilient against a lone Israeli invasion).
Hah! Very well said. Great write up, thank you.
In my undergrad, more than 20 years ago, I wrote an essay talking about why the EU should admit Turkey. This was JUST before AKP came to power. My idea at the time was that by joining the secular EU, the secular forces in Turkey might be able to hold off the religious extremists. I quite liked some of the secular parties. I thought the presence of Turkey in the EU might even help galvanize some of the Christians of Europe.
I was a retard, what can I say. AKP is one of the best things to ever happen to Europe.