Are any of you going to be doing anything to prepare for the now all but certain take over of Congress by Democrats come Jan 2027?
I don't expect that any of us will get subpoenas, or be roped into impeachment, but we all know how vindictive Democrats can be, so I wouldn't put it past them to draft legislation that is directly targeted towards MAGA...
I predicted a marginal mid-term Democrat victory and a marginal Democrat victory in 2028. Shame I can't recall where I wrote it.
In America, it's uncommon for the mid-term winner to lose the subsequent general election. Since I can't find the source for this, I asked an AI to calculate it. It decided to go from 1946 to 2022. There have been twenty mid-term elections in that time period. In 13 (65%) of those elections, the mid-term winner wins the subsequent general election.
Suspicious of these results - they seem too low - and expecting this correlation to be higher, I decided to ask it to consider only results post-2000. That 65% jumps to 83% - this heuristic correctly predicts 5 of 6 generals. That matches my understanding: strong predictive power.
Where my understanding was inadequate was that its predictive power is more differential - less accurate in the past, more accurate in the present.
In other words, the mid-terms basically tell you who will win the presidency a majority of the time, but, importantly, with increasing predictive power as time passes. If there was truly no correlation, you'd expect a result much closer to 50%, and totally uniform across time.
Trump is, of course, an exceptional outlier. The only president without prior military or political experience. The second president of 46 to do non-consecutive terms. Nevertheless, this rule has still held true alongside the whole Trump period: the one exception was in 2010.
Another point is that the general two terms one side, two terms other side logic (2x Reagan, 1x GHWB, 2x Bill Clinton, 2x GWB, 2x Obama) is breaking down. Two consecutive presidents doing one term only is highly unusual, but that's exactly what happened (1x Trump, 1x Biden).
To finalize, I maintain that the Democrats will win a marginal victory in the mid-terms and go on to marginally win the presidency (e.g. 52-48).