While this is largely correct, I think it's wise to temper expectations. Lots of skeleton crews are stilling going into the office throughout the shut down and I'm sure there's plenty of shit that if it fully ground to a halt for a full year would eventually see effects further on down the line. Think along the lines of emergency/disaster preparedness and the logistics around that. Sure we can respond to the next disaster because we've already got a stockpile of resources and a gameplan, but the one after that when no one's been working the warehouse to restock or the office to plan how to coordinate communications and personnel? Maybe that one doesn't go so well. Stuff like that that wouldn't see an immediate effect but would be important when the consequences finally did materialize.

But again, you can pretty freely cut anyone who works on powerpoint slides without worrying.