I know theres a lot of "it was the joos!" Out there but hear me out. This one lines up nicely.

Background - Russia has long propped up the Iranian regime as a counter to US/Israel in the region.

Premise - Israel had to neutralize Russias long range strike capabilities before risking a war on Iran.

Tactics - both attacks used infiltration and local drone assembly/attacks. Both totally novel and never seen before in close succession. Timng and tactics indicate the same origin.

Outcome - remaining capabilities moved to far east. Southbound ordinance would have to cross China, which is diplomatically touchy. Reduces but doesn't remove threat to Ukraine.

QED