You are making a worse assumption: That repeated does have no risk. That is just false and the Covid -19 "vaccine" shows it. The first dose might not show a problem, but the second or third can.

so those who get fucked once, are much more likely to be fucked again, making two counts (the baseline math you're using), but one victim

that is covered by the "at least one vaccine hospitalization". The math doesn't care if it is more than one. Any number of hospitalizations makes the statement true. Think about the complementary event: that none of the injections cause a severe reaction. That event is one minus the probability of a reaction, to the power of the number of trials for independent events. There is no reason to assume that vaccines in different categories have the same "tech". The payload is tailored to the disease, and the rest of the solution is just a saline solution and some preservatives and pH balance. Similarly, as mentioned above, there is no reason to assume that vaccines get safer somehow the more you take them. While the second and third does for a single vaccine are not independent, they are not risk free, and 3% chance of a reaction is a fine guess.