It comes from the production budget you mentioned, plus 100+ million that they spent on advertising. The total cost is around 500 million. Since the theaters keep half of the box office, the box office needs to be a billion for Disney to get their half of it.
Edit: FYI, the budget reported by the NYT is way low. They included the original production budget and an estimate for the marketing, but left out the cost of the multiple rounds of reshoots that have been done during the years of delays.
It comes from the production budget you mentioned, plus 100+ million that they spent on advertising. The total cost is around 500 million. Since the theaters keep half of the box office, the box office needs to be a billion for Disney to get their half of it.
Edit: FYI, the budget reported by the NYT is way low. They included the original production budget and an estimate for the marketing, but left out the cost of the multiple rounds of reshoots that have been done during the years of delays.