GTA 4 (2008) had a development budget of 100 million in (146.5 million today) it made $500 million (730 million today) in the first week and sold 25 million copies by 2013. GTA 5 (2013) had a development cost of 265 million (354 million today) it made 1.15 billion (1.56 billion today) in the first week and had sold 205 million copies as of 2025 and a total gross of 8.5 billion as of today (including GTA online sales). RDR 2 (2018) had a development cost of 540 million ( 678 million today) and made 725 million in the first 3 days (909 million today) and sold 57 million copies as of 2023. GTA 6 is rumored to have a development cost of 2 billion and it is the first game to have a female main character in story mode. To achieve the success level of GTA 5 it would need to make more than GTA 5 has made in total in the first week. That’s 124 million copies of $70 in the first week.
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I don't think it'll quite get that projection only because of the lingering doubts. Maybe 70 million copies in the first week as there will be a significant size of the audience waiting a week to ensure it isn't a DEI bait and switch.
Now this will be worse first week sales IF it's $120 per copy as some rumours tried to suggest. The thing is that the AAA studios half decade of releases have caused lingering doubt in the current state of gaming that people would rather play 14 year old Skyrim than any new RPG. This is something Rockstar needs to overcome for this to be a success.
If it’s 120 at launch I’m doubtful they’ll get 50 million sales at launch. I’m betting they make a poor man’s edition and a whale card edition for online.