That's because housing prices will either crash, or currencies will hyper-inflate to meet them, or both.
There is no 3rd outcome.
Donald Trump promising to make houses 50% cheaper isn't a pipe-dream. It's going to happen one way or another, and probably blow up the global economy when it does.
Housing prices measured by the Case-Shiller index were surging, increasing by 44.7% from the first quarter in 2003 until their peak in the first quarter of 2006.
The 18-ish year RE Cycle is well known and seems to fit, and predict, the market well.
This would predict the next cycle peak somewhere in 2024, followed by a slow decline in late 2024 and a steep fall playing over the next 3-4 years.
You're gonna have to trust me when I say that I don't give two shits what the Cato institute thinks. The peak in the housing market was prior to 2020. A new artificial peak was created off of interest rates creating a "refinance boom". Since then not only have we been seeing a litany of mortgage business collapse, several banks have refused to do new mortgages (including Wells Fargo), and I will remind you that banks were going under too.
Every mechanism, including government fraud, is being used to prop up the market. Delinquencies are up, consumer fraud is up, every indicator of a horrible housing economy is up. The housing market is dead. We are already well into the decline phase, and are going to move towards free fall when the Fed tries to do to Trump what the Bank of England did to Liz Truss. We just haven't hit the floor yet.
That's because housing prices will either crash, or currencies will hyper-inflate to meet them, or both.
There is no 3rd outcome.
Donald Trump promising to make houses 50% cheaper isn't a pipe-dream. It's going to happen one way or another, and probably blow up the global economy when it does.
The 18-ish year RE Cycle is well known and seems to fit, and predict, the market well.
This would predict the next cycle peak somewhere in 2024, followed by a slow decline in late 2024 and a steep fall playing over the next 3-4 years.
Here's a Cato Institute article from 2010: https://www.cato.org/commentary/great-18-year-real-estate-cycle
You're gonna have to trust me when I say that I don't give two shits what the Cato institute thinks. The peak in the housing market was prior to 2020. A new artificial peak was created off of interest rates creating a "refinance boom". Since then not only have we been seeing a litany of mortgage business collapse, several banks have refused to do new mortgages (including Wells Fargo), and I will remind you that banks were going under too.
Every mechanism, including government fraud, is being used to prop up the market. Delinquencies are up, consumer fraud is up, every indicator of a horrible housing economy is up. The housing market is dead. We are already well into the decline phase, and are going to move towards free fall when the Fed tries to do to Trump what the Bank of England did to Liz Truss. We just haven't hit the floor yet.