There is a 50/50 despite everything that they won't convict, because having your name associated with this is radioactive.

Generally speaking the longer a jury deliberates the less likely they are to convict. When I saw that they went over 5 hours without reaching a verdict yesterday I was thinking that's a good sign. The real danger is the judge who clearly wishes he could just send Trump to the gallows without the niceties of having to prove that Trump did anything.