Trump won't go to jail, most house arrest because if they do it, he'll still win and now you gave him the power and precedent to go after Biden, Hilary, EVERYONE the same way. And if not by lawfare by recalling secret service protection if they attempt to do that to jail him.

Agreed. And in addition to what you said, even if this wasn't trumped-up charges (which it is), Merchan has a ridiculous numbers of red flags and anomalies on this and I'm sure Trump's lawyers (and probably NY State too) have the appeal paperwork drafted already.

Unfortunately I don't agree.

1. Merchan will threaten any juror who doesn't convict. Plus the pressure from the other jurors, for days.
2. They don't care. They'll get federal bucks and investments from Dem donors.
3. So far the Supreme Court always stood down when Trump was concerned.
4. Normies are idiots. They cannot fathom that the system is this corrupt. They'd rather live in ignorant servitude. Biden will win because Trump is a "convicted criminal".

How it's going play out IMHO: guilty, appeal, he'll stay in prison until the appelate court suspends his sentence while the appeal goes through, loses the election because "convicted criminal", long after the election the appeal reverses the verdict or reduces it to something trivial but by then it's too late.

There is a 50/50 despite everything that they won't convict, because having your name associated with this is radioactive.

Generally speaking the longer a jury deliberates the less likely they are to convict. When I saw that they went over 5 hours without reaching a verdict yesterday I was thinking that's a good sign. The real danger is the judge who clearly wishes he could just send Trump to the gallows without the niceties of having to prove that Trump did anything.