The Chinkansen is horribly made
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This is why I dont buy that the Chinese will displace the US. Because much like the Soviets before them, they are being propped up with a fine veneer of being "superior", but the second you chip away that glittering paint, it is all rust underneath it.
Yep. China is demographically terminal. Barring a huge expansionist war, it's guaranteed to collapse economically within about 15 years. The only question is whether Rainbow-Marxism/wokeness will destroy the US before that. When that happens, all 3 major world powers of the 20th century will have been destroyed by Marxism (USSR, China, USA).
The only problem is wokism is gradually turning the West into a bugmen collective too.
The one good thing I see going for us in that regard is that the US is decentralized enough that there are pockets that can outlast it to allow us to get back up on our feet. Much like when the Soviets were doing similar shit in the past. There has already been a trend of manufacturing returning to the US, and there has been efforts by states to actually control it.
On the one hand, I agree with you.
The problem with that, though, is that China's government is aware of how close to the edge of the cliff they are. And, faced with the choice between "let everything implode" and "massive military campaign before everything collapses" I don't see how they would possibly choose option 1.
The problem with a military move is that also guarantees their destruction. Because even if the US decided to sit out because a leader that was China-friendly was in charge, the Japanese, Vietnamese, and Indians have already said an attack on Taiwan will see responses from all of them. And while Vietnam is questionable there, the Indians have been winning skirmishes with the Chinese and the Japanese have the better navy in terms of both ship quality and quality of their sailors.
And this is before we get around to the fact that the political class has shown evidence they care more about Taiwan than China and would be more than willing to go to the mat for that fight.
Considering the Eric Swalwell thing recently, is there much to be concerned about (globally) if US intelligence/leadership is compromised by Chinese in this scenario? I don't doubt US politicians are largely supportive of Taiwan, but I would guess not everyone close to them is too. My fear is that it might only take a few people in the right places to cause problems.
China doesn't want to fight India not just for the nukes or that they can easily bleed more due to population sizes but for one word: Gurkas
Them being incorporated into the British empire was seen as the biggest boon ever, the Japanese, Argentinians and Taliban STILL have nightmares going against them. They are most ruthless and savage motherfuckers available and India has at least 4 regiments of them.
Them being let loose on China would probably decrease their population by half quick..
Funny you mention the Gurkhas. One of those regiments is stationed in the Himalayas in the disputed territory. And while most of the skirmishes between the Indians Regulars and the PLA have been fairly even (with a minor tilt toward India), the handful of times the Gurkhas have fought has seen them absolutely slaughter the Chinese. The last fight, 2 Gurkhas were killed. Meanwhile, the Chinese refuse to say, but rumors from Chinese dissidents says their death toll was 40+. And this was with just sticks and rocks (no guns to try and keep the escalation away).
You have to suck so badly to lose any military encounter to Indians...
When was the last time China won an offensive war?
says a lot about the quality of the ccp army.