I asked Bing if there was enough LIthium in the world for everyone to get an EV car ......Based on the web search results, it seems that there is not enough lithium in the world to convert every ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle to an EV (electric vehicle). According to a report by Forbes⁹, by 2030, EVs will need 2,700 GWh worth of lithium-ion batteries a year, which is equivalent to 225 billion iPhone 11 batteries and 13 times more battery power than we use today. However, the global supply of lithium is limited and concentrated in a few places, such as Australia, Chile, and China. The demand for lithium is expected to exceed the supply by 2025, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)². This could lead to higher prices, lower quality, and environmental and social impacts.
Some of the challenges and solutions for meeting the lithium demand for EVs are:
- Price: The price of lithium has increased significantly due to the growing demand for EVs. The price of Australian spodumene, a lithium-rich raw material, has grown more than tenfold from $415 per tonne in January 2021 to $4,994 per tonne in October 2022¹. This could make EVs more expensive and less affordable for consumers. To lower the cost of lithium, some possible solutions are increasing the efficiency and recycling of batteries, developing alternative sources of lithium, such as brines or clays, and diversifying the supply chain to reduce dependence on a few countries²⁴.
- Range: The range of EVs depends on the capacity and performance of their batteries, which are influenced by the quality and quantity of lithium. The average range of EVs in 2020 was about 320 km, while some models could reach up to 600 km². However, this may not be enough for some drivers who need to travel long distances or who have unpredictable driving patterns. To increase the range of EVs, some possible solutions are improving the battery technology and design, such as using solid-state or metal-air batteries, expanding the network and accessibility of charging stations, and optimizing the driving behavior and conditions²⁴.
- Infrastructure: The infrastructure for EVs includes the network of charging stations that can provide electricity for their batteries. The availability and accessibility of charging stations may vary depending on the location, the type of charger, and the cost of charging. Some drivers may face difficulties in finding a suitable or convenient charging station near their destination or along their route. Some drivers may also prefer to charge their EVs at home, but this may require additional equipment and installation costs². To improve the infrastructure for EVs, some possible solutions are increasing the investment and innovation in charging technologies and services, such as fast chargers or wireless chargers, enhancing the integration and coordination of electricity grids and renewable energy sources, and providing incentives and regulations for charging station operators and users²⁴.
- Awareness: The awareness of EVs includes the information and knowledge that consumers have about their benefits, features, and reliability. Some consumers may have misconceptions or doubts about EVs, such as their safety, durability, or maintenance. Some consumers may also be unaware of the environmental and social impacts of EVs, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving air quality, and supporting renewable energy sources². To increase the awareness of EVs, some possible solutions are providing accurate and transparent information and education about EVs and their advantages and opportunities, promoting positive experiences and testimonials from EV users and experts, and encouraging social norms and values that support EV adoption²⁴.
I hope this helps you understand more about why there is not enough lithium in the world to convert every ICE vehicle to an EV. Do you want to chat more about this topic or something else? I'm happy to talk about anything that interests you. 😊
Source: Conversation with Bing, 21/08/2023 (1) As Tesla Booms, Lithium Is Running Out - Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/danrunkevicius/2020/12/07/as-tesla-booms-lithium-is-running-out/. (2) Electric vehicle demand – has the world got enough lithium? | World .... https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/electric-vehicles-world-enough-lithium-resources/. (3) How Australia became the world's greatest lithium supplier. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20221110-how-australia-became-the-worlds-greatest-lithium-supplier. (4) Lithium supply and demand to 2030 - Fastmarkets. https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/lithium-supply-and-demand-to-2030. (5) This chart shows which countries produce the most lithium. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/chart-countries-produce-lithium-world/. (6) Is your lithium stock having a rough week? China may have something to do with it. https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/is-your-lithium-stock-having-a-rough-week-china-may-have-something-to-do-with-it/ar-AA1fouiI. (7) Lithium Demand For EVs Is Soaring, and This 1 Stock Is Rolling in Cash. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/lithium-demand-for-evs-is-soaring-and-this-1-stock-is-rolling-in-cash/ar-AA1fbazq. (8) EV Supplier Livent Holds Up Amid Lithium Price Declines -- Is It a Buy?. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ev-supplier-livent-holds-up-amid-lithium-price-declines-is-it-a-buy/ar-AA1fopFK. (9) Demand for electric vehicles rising but battery costs, policy inertia .... https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-08/evs-in-demand-lithium-expensive-government-policy/100969628.
It's just as likely that your car will be turned off with software after you drive too fast or dare to use it during a brownout. No "siege warfare" or "imaginary scenarios," just a mandatory OS upgrade.
Anyway, it's not that gas delivery can't be stopped. It's that stopping electric delivery is far easier and more flexible and therefore can be deployed in a low intensity situation. With gas you have a huge network composed of many individual chain links, from the suppliers all the way down to the local gas station, and each of those links has a reserve of gas. You could force that to stop, but it would be a colossal undertaking that would only be justifiable with declaration of war against the population or something equivalent.
On the other hand, electric delivery is centralized to a few centers of authority and can literally be turned off by flipping switches. For example, your power company can cut you off easily. Crucially, however, electricity can also be monitored easily. So if the government implements a limit for usage during "peak hours," as the EU is proposing, you could be personally throttled in normal circumstances and there wouldn't be anything you could do about it. Or it's also possible that in order to enforce "climate lockdowns" the government can throttle or cut off your entire neighborhood to stop people from traveling. Again, this is effective with flipping a few switches.
In case for some reason you're dumb enough to think none of this will apply to you because you'll charge your iCar at night, away from peak hours, they've got you covered there too. Bidirectional charging, or the ability for a car to send power instead of receive it, has been proposed as a way for EV owners to "help" the grid. Right now it's discussed as a voluntary feature. One only needs to glance at CA's history with water rationing and brownouts to see how long that'll last.
Your local gas station has a few days worth of gas at most. All production and transport hubs are centralized and highly regulated. The whole thing is a pipeline that has to be resupplied constantly. Gas rationing has been implemented in the US in the past with no meaningful resistance. Cutting off gas is at least as easy as cutting off electricity.
I know of several people who can make their own electricity using solar panels. It's common to connect to the grid to make money, but converting to an off-grid circuit is just a little rewiring and it would become quite popular if the grid became unreliable. I've never heard of anyone making their own gas.
Cutting off the electricity turns any "low intensity situation" into a high intensity one immediately, because you're threatening people's lives with a lack of heating, cooling, refrigeration, safety (lighting), and communication. If you turn off the power to a major city, people start killing each other in days. I can't see a situation where the government turns off electricity intentionally because it would immediately escalate out of control. What do you think people are going to do if they can't watch tv or eat food?
There's no situation where the government cuts off electricity and doesn't also cut off the gasoline. In order for the electricity cut to even work they would have to seize and destroy all the old gas cars well in advance which would be insane.
The only thing that makes a lick of sense in your scenario is the software updates targeting individuals, but that crapware exists in every single new gas car too so it doesn't make any difference.
It seems like you're just collecting your fears and projecting them onto new technology when it's really irrelevant to the entire situation.
Yes, that's obvious. As I said, every link in the chain has a physical quantity of gas and there are also multiple supplier and dealer networks. Gas does not enter a giant reservoir akin to the grid where it can be dispensed to anyone instantly. It's inherently less controllable and traceable. The logistics of gas are incredibly more difficult than control over the electric grid.
You're talking about WWII, when the population supported rationing. To take that context and suggest that proves gas rationing would be easy to implement today is silly.
Off-grid solutions are probably the most attractive points of EVs, so if you have the resources to put up unlicensed panels/windmills and take the heat for running them (connection to the grid will likely be mandatory) then it's a good idea to get some kind of EV.
The overwhelming majority of Americans will not generate their own power, though, so this will not hinder social control measures.
Farmers trying to protest with their tractors? Truckers protesting climate lockdowns/vaccination? Another January 6 situation developing? In all of these situations, being able to instantly target certain people and limit their ability to travel is going to be worth the risk. They would've loved being able to press a few buttons and make the threat of a Freedom Convoy basically harmless. Every major American city burned in 2020, do you think that people killing each other matters that much to them?
It's more likely that throttling happens (to varying levels of severity) instead of just cutting people off though. CA has already asked people not to use large appliances to avoid stressing the grid. The EU is openly discussing electric consumption limits. In a "risk of brownout" situation or a "climate warning" situation people could be restricted to a subsistence level of electricity - instantly.
I just outlined a few for you. Anyway, in a scenario where the majority of cars on the road can be dealt with by flipping a switch, the ICE holdouts become more manageable. Population control is a problem of averages, not 100% perfection.
It's far easier to push control measures on EVs than ICE. The software is the only gateway and the system is effectively blackboxed from the consumer at this point. Why do you think Mercedes offers a subscription fee to unlock HP for its EVs and not ICE? Conversely, messing with ICE tuning will break the car if the drivetrain parts don't match, and many users mod their ECU.