I asked Bing if there was enough LIthium in the world for everyone to get an EV car ......Based on the web search results, it seems that there is not enough lithium in the world to convert every ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle to an EV (electric vehicle). According to a report by Forbes⁹, by 2030, EVs will need 2,700 GWh worth of lithium-ion batteries a year, which is equivalent to 225 billion iPhone 11 batteries and 13 times more battery power than we use today. However, the global supply of lithium is limited and concentrated in a few places, such as Australia, Chile, and China. The demand for lithium is expected to exceed the supply by 2025, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)². This could lead to higher prices, lower quality, and environmental and social impacts.
Some of the challenges and solutions for meeting the lithium demand for EVs are:
- Price: The price of lithium has increased significantly due to the growing demand for EVs. The price of Australian spodumene, a lithium-rich raw material, has grown more than tenfold from $415 per tonne in January 2021 to $4,994 per tonne in October 2022¹. This could make EVs more expensive and less affordable for consumers. To lower the cost of lithium, some possible solutions are increasing the efficiency and recycling of batteries, developing alternative sources of lithium, such as brines or clays, and diversifying the supply chain to reduce dependence on a few countries²⁴.
- Range: The range of EVs depends on the capacity and performance of their batteries, which are influenced by the quality and quantity of lithium. The average range of EVs in 2020 was about 320 km, while some models could reach up to 600 km². However, this may not be enough for some drivers who need to travel long distances or who have unpredictable driving patterns. To increase the range of EVs, some possible solutions are improving the battery technology and design, such as using solid-state or metal-air batteries, expanding the network and accessibility of charging stations, and optimizing the driving behavior and conditions²⁴.
- Infrastructure: The infrastructure for EVs includes the network of charging stations that can provide electricity for their batteries. The availability and accessibility of charging stations may vary depending on the location, the type of charger, and the cost of charging. Some drivers may face difficulties in finding a suitable or convenient charging station near their destination or along their route. Some drivers may also prefer to charge their EVs at home, but this may require additional equipment and installation costs². To improve the infrastructure for EVs, some possible solutions are increasing the investment and innovation in charging technologies and services, such as fast chargers or wireless chargers, enhancing the integration and coordination of electricity grids and renewable energy sources, and providing incentives and regulations for charging station operators and users²⁴.
- Awareness: The awareness of EVs includes the information and knowledge that consumers have about their benefits, features, and reliability. Some consumers may have misconceptions or doubts about EVs, such as their safety, durability, or maintenance. Some consumers may also be unaware of the environmental and social impacts of EVs, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions, improving air quality, and supporting renewable energy sources². To increase the awareness of EVs, some possible solutions are providing accurate and transparent information and education about EVs and their advantages and opportunities, promoting positive experiences and testimonials from EV users and experts, and encouraging social norms and values that support EV adoption²⁴.
I hope this helps you understand more about why there is not enough lithium in the world to convert every ICE vehicle to an EV. Do you want to chat more about this topic or something else? I'm happy to talk about anything that interests you. 😊
Source: Conversation with Bing, 21/08/2023 (1) As Tesla Booms, Lithium Is Running Out - Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/danrunkevicius/2020/12/07/as-tesla-booms-lithium-is-running-out/. (2) Electric vehicle demand – has the world got enough lithium? | World .... https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/electric-vehicles-world-enough-lithium-resources/. (3) How Australia became the world's greatest lithium supplier. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20221110-how-australia-became-the-worlds-greatest-lithium-supplier. (4) Lithium supply and demand to 2030 - Fastmarkets. https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/lithium-supply-and-demand-to-2030. (5) This chart shows which countries produce the most lithium. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/01/chart-countries-produce-lithium-world/. (6) Is your lithium stock having a rough week? China may have something to do with it. https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/is-your-lithium-stock-having-a-rough-week-china-may-have-something-to-do-with-it/ar-AA1fouiI. (7) Lithium Demand For EVs Is Soaring, and This 1 Stock Is Rolling in Cash. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/lithium-demand-for-evs-is-soaring-and-this-1-stock-is-rolling-in-cash/ar-AA1fbazq. (8) EV Supplier Livent Holds Up Amid Lithium Price Declines -- Is It a Buy?. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ev-supplier-livent-holds-up-amid-lithium-price-declines-is-it-a-buy/ar-AA1fopFK. (9) Demand for electric vehicles rising but battery costs, policy inertia .... https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-08/evs-in-demand-lithium-expensive-government-policy/100969628.
The main problem, as I see it, is the speed at which the elites want to force EVs.
There's enough lithium in the earths crust for us all to have EVs, but the mining and refining capacity isn't there - and it takes decades to spin that up. Same with scaling up the electric grid. Even in an ideal situation where we build tons of nuclear plants to charge our EVs, the current grid just can't handle it. You just can't physically push enough power through the wires to charge an EV at every household. This can be built up of course, but again it takes decades.
If they just let everything happen naturally, it'd be fine. People would buy whatever kind of vehicle makes sense to them, battery tech would slowly improve and bring more people on board, mining and refining would scale up, recycling batteries would become financially viable, the grid could be built up - in 50 years most people would be driving an EV. But they need to force everyone because it's not proper environmentalism if people aren't suffering.
This has always been my take on it. EVs as a technology are really pretty good; there are a lot of inherent advantages over ICE like part count (reliability), efficiency, max torque at 0rpm and so forth. If the market were left to develop organically I am sure EVs would be adopted on their own merits over the next 50+ years.
But no, of course the politicians must be seen to be 'doing something' about the 'climate emergency' and so they'll push policies forcing EV before the infrastructure is there which everyone will suffer for.
You know, one of the great things about ICE vehicles is that you can economize by choosing to drive less. Pushing EVs onto the grid means the price of electricity must rise, especially if the infrastructure isn't really there. And guess what? Suddenly the cost of EVs is pushed to everyone who uses electricity; you can't economize by driving less. Of course this means that the poor (you know, those guys the leftists claim to love) will suffer most from this policy debacle.
It's the other way around. They're pushing this "climate emergency" bullshit to gain more control. If they really believed it themselves they'd stop using private jets and they wouldn't give places like China and India a free pass to pollute as much as they want.
It would not be fine. Your EV will be a brick if the feds turn off the grid in your area or "nudge" automakers to push out a climate change software update. Those are features, not problems anyone wants to solve. EVs are iPhones on wheels.
This is kind of like when people think the 2nd Amendment is for hunting or self-defense and try to thread the needle with solutions like mandatory smart guns. The 2nd is important to check a tyrannical government, and ICE is important to forestall tyrannical methods of control.
So are modern ICE vehicles. Everything is computer-controlled and network-connected. Your car won't start if they don't want it to.
The ability to moderate the control of EVs is what makes them infinitely more attractive from a regulatory standpoint. With ICE, you are limited to jacking up Michael Hastings' throttle to 100% into a tree. With EVs, you can press a button and take away 100hp from millions of cars at once, set maximum ranges, geolocate speed limits, or subtly screw with how the firmware handles this or that process without the customer ever wising up because everything is blackboxed. Some of this is possible with ICE (esp after 2027 when remote kill switch on new cars is mandatory), but not to the same extent.
ICE cars can be modded with relative ease as well. Jury's still out on the aftermarket for a Tesla when not even the factory will repair the battery and the selling point is "the car drives itself."
Turn off the grid? Like all electricity? Wtf? How are you planning on filling up your gasoline car when the feds go full siege warfare on you in this imaginary scenario? Are you planning to drive to walmart in these conditions? How are you going to keep food?
If you honestly believe this is a possibility your garage better be filled to the brim with IEDs ready to deploy.
It's just as likely that your car will be turned off with software after you drive too fast or dare to use it during a brownout. No "siege warfare" or "imaginary scenarios," just a mandatory OS upgrade.
Anyway, it's not that gas delivery can't be stopped. It's that stopping electric delivery is far easier and more flexible and therefore can be deployed in a low intensity situation. With gas you have a huge network composed of many individual chain links, from the suppliers all the way down to the local gas station, and each of those links has a reserve of gas. You could force that to stop, but it would be a colossal undertaking that would only be justifiable with declaration of war against the population or something equivalent.
On the other hand, electric delivery is centralized to a few centers of authority and can literally be turned off by flipping switches. For example, your power company can cut you off easily. Crucially, however, electricity can also be monitored easily. So if the government implements a limit for usage during "peak hours," as the EU is proposing, you could be personally throttled in normal circumstances and there wouldn't be anything you could do about it. Or it's also possible that in order to enforce "climate lockdowns" the government can throttle or cut off your entire neighborhood to stop people from traveling. Again, this is effective with flipping a few switches.
In case for some reason you're dumb enough to think none of this will apply to you because you'll charge your iCar at night, away from peak hours, they've got you covered there too. Bidirectional charging, or the ability for a car to send power instead of receive it, has been proposed as a way for EV owners to "help" the grid. Right now it's discussed as a voluntary feature. One only needs to glance at CA's history with water rationing and brownouts to see how long that'll last.
Your local gas station has a few days worth of gas at most. All production and transport hubs are centralized and highly regulated. The whole thing is a pipeline that has to be resupplied constantly. Gas rationing has been implemented in the US in the past with no meaningful resistance. Cutting off gas is at least as easy as cutting off electricity.
I know of several people who can make their own electricity using solar panels. It's common to connect to the grid to make money, but converting to an off-grid circuit is just a little rewiring and it would become quite popular if the grid became unreliable. I've never heard of anyone making their own gas.
Cutting off the electricity turns any "low intensity situation" into a high intensity one immediately, because you're threatening people's lives with a lack of heating, cooling, refrigeration, safety (lighting), and communication. If you turn off the power to a major city, people start killing each other in days. I can't see a situation where the government turns off electricity intentionally because it would immediately escalate out of control. What do you think people are going to do if they can't watch tv or eat food?
There's no situation where the government cuts off electricity and doesn't also cut off the gasoline. In order for the electricity cut to even work they would have to seize and destroy all the old gas cars well in advance which would be insane.
The only thing that makes a lick of sense in your scenario is the software updates targeting individuals, but that crapware exists in every single new gas car too so it doesn't make any difference.
It seems like you're just collecting your fears and projecting them onto new technology when it's really irrelevant to the entire situation.